Francisco Liriano's Great Implosion

You can almost set your watch to Francisco Liriano’s implosions on the mound. Shortly after the Twins scraped together a few runs and put a 3-1 lead up on C.C. Sabathia last night, I said “Watch, Liriano will give it all back in the next half inning.” Sure enough, Liriano proceeded to allow 4 runs in route to a short 2.1 inning, 5 ER outing. (He also walked 4 and struck out only 2).

In 3 starts this year, Liriano has an 11.91 ERA, while allowing 17 hits, 15 earned runs and giving up 9 walks – all in only 11 innings. Atrocious doesn’t even begin to describe how poorly Liriano has pitched so far this year.

Liriano's ERA - it's off the charts this year (in a bad way)

Liriano's walks per 9 innings. Again, off the charts, again not in a good way

Coming into this season, the Twins desperately needed Liriano to step up and become the staff ace. The team needed a starter who could be “that guy”, who would be the guy that the fans could say “Oh, Liriano is starting? We’ve got a great chance to win!” Through the later part of spring training, it looked like Liriano was poised to be just that. Instead, Liriano has absolutely imploded as he has been unable to locate his key pitches (his slider seems to hang up in the zone or be buried in the dirt) or tack on any extra velocity to his fast ball.

The question is, what’s wrong with Liriano and how can it be fixed? I haven’t heard any rumblings that he is suffering from an injury or discomfort (like Glen Perkins) so that option is likely out. (Although I wouldn’t be stunned if the Twins gave Liriano a somewhat-made-up injury issue and stuck him on the DL for 15 days to figure out whatever is wrong). Liriano could be struggling with his pitching mechanics, but after a strong spring, that would be surprising.The other option is that Liriano is in his own head so far that he over-thinks and thereby overthrows during his starts.

Over thiking? Over pitching? Mental? Mechanical? WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU!?

In an in game interview with Carl Pavano Tuesday night on FSN, Dick & Bert talked to Pavano about any support he tries to give to Liriano when he’s struggling. Pavano mentioned that he has talked to Liriano about his approach and what he’s telling himself in key situations. While it wasn’t directly stated, Pavano seemed to imply that Liriano gets himself into jams and then thinks “I can’t leave this pitch up” rather than “Let’s get this guy to chase this pitch low and away” (I.E. negative thoughts in place of positive goals).

(As an aside, Carl Pavano certainly has a future as an analyst or broadcaster once he decides his career is over. His short conversation with Dick & Bert was absolutely fascinating as he gave great insight to what pitchers are thinking during at bats, how pitchers approach certain hitters and the science behind pitching. Pavano was articulate, interesting and well informed and would be perfectly suited behind a desk once his career is over.)

If the problem is mental, I’m not sure how the Twins go about fixing the situation. Is the issue simply Liriano getting too pumped up for his starts and then overdoing each matchup? Or, does he simply lack confidence in his ability right now? Either way, if I’m the Twins coaches I would give serious thought to putting Liriano on the DL and letting him work on his mechanics. Afterwards I’d allow Liriano a few starts in AAA and gauge how he does before moving him back into the starting rotation.

Liriano’s value to the Twins is either as solid #1 or #2 starter or as trade bait during this year’s deadline. Currently he’s not even a decent #5 starter and is certainly not going to command any value above a low level (AA?) prospect in a trade. Sending him to the DL and/or AAA could help ‘fix’ whatever has gone horribly wrong with Liriano this season.

(I don’t subscribe to the theory that Liriano should move to the bullpen. That move would INCREASE the pressure on Liriano and would likely make any mental hurdles he has even harder to clear. In addition, bullpen pitchers need to throw strikes and be strikeout machines or at the very least have great command. Maybe a healthy and effective Liriano can do that, but this iteration is not presently able to be that pitcher.)

Worth Noting:

The Twins put together a nice win on Monday night (in Yankee Stadium!) thanks to a great start from Carl Pavano (after a bad 1^st inning) and solid at bats from Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Valencia. Great defense throughout the game from Casilla and Carroll helped as well.

They currently sit at 3-8 (due mostly to a rough opening schedule, I continue to say they’re better than a bottom feeding team) and are 1-1 with the Yankees in this series. If the team continues some of the good things they’ve been doing (timely hitting, decent pitching) they should pull at least one more win out of New York before heading to Tampa Bay. A series split with a good Yankee squad would be a ‘win’ as far as I’m concerned.

Jason Marquis makes his Twins debut tonight Vs. Hideki Kuroda. Hopefully Marquis can be “Pavano-esque” tonight. Go Twins!