Predictions Sure To Go Wrong

With the season officially starting tonight in Miami (A's / Mariners game that no one watched not withstanding) it's only fitting to take a couple of cracks at where I think teams will end up at the end of the year. There are always unexpected teams, a surprise player or two and a "where did they come from?" team every year, so I don't imagine these final guestimations will be anywhere near the actual result, but it's still fun to take a shot.

Before a sabermetric all star looks at my projections and points out that the wins allocated are not valid as they don't balance with loses vs. games played (etc. etc.) let me just point out that the wins behind each team are my estimation of their most likely W/L total and are independent of the other teams in the league. I.E. I know that it's very unlikely (read: impossible) that 4 teams from the AL East will win 80+ games, but independently, I could see the Jays winning 82, Boston winning 83 etc. Simply put, the rankings are how I think they'll finish, the W/L is just my way of showing how much better I think one team is Vs. the division (For example, the Yankees are slightly better than the Rays, but the Red Sox and Jays are essentially the same).


AL East:

Yankees 92-70
Rays 85-77
Red Sox 83-79
Blue Jays 82-80
Orioles 65-97

Comments: This is a fairly stacked division. New York added pitching depth around an already solid offense. Tampa Bay is young and scrappy and would run away with a majority of the other divisions if they were suddenly transferred from the AL East. Boston loses out on a playoff spot on the virtue of being not quite as deep as Tampa Bay and playing in that tough division. Toronto is trending up, but still not as good as Tampa, Boston or New York and the Orioles...Well, there's always next year.


Al Central

Tigers 88-74
Twins 86-76
Indians 81-81
Royals 70-92
White Sox 66-96

Comments: I'm of the firm belief that Detroit will not run away and hide with the central crown. This team may be an offensive juggernaut - but it plays 81 games in a park that doesn't favor hitters. In addition, the Tigers may be rolling out one of the worst defensive lineups known to man. The Twins were not as bad as that 63-99 W/L split made them look last year. Up until the All-Star break they were in contention for the division despite not having Mauer, Morneau or Span for much of the year. This team is healthy, deeper and primed to make things interesting in the central. As far as I'm concerned, you could flip-flop the Indians and Twins this year, both will be competitive and have shot at the wild card. (I'm just biased towards the Twins, so they win out). The Royals are a popular pick for the "up-and-coming" title this year. I'm not buying it. They'll be decent, but they're not a contender yet. Chicago is rebuilding, even if they won't admit it up front, this team isn't very good.

Al West

Rangers 90-72
Angels 85-77
A's 70-92
Mariners 64-98

Comments: No, signing Albert Pujols doesn't instantly make the Angels my World Series pick - in fact with the depth of the AL and a very, very good Rangers team in front of them (two AL pennants in two years is not an accident) I think they'll barely scrape into the playoffs (Tiebreaker with Tampa Bay). The A's and Mariners are also rans. This is a top heavy division that will be very entertaining throughout the year.


NL East

Phillies 90-72
Marlins 88-74
Nationals 81-81
Braves 78-84
Mets 70-92

Comments: I think the Phillies played a little over their heads last year. They are still the best team in the NL East, (and probably all of the NL) but I don't think they're head and shoulders above the rest of their improved division. I like what the Marlins did this off season and I think they'll be just good enough to keep things interesting if not steal a wild card come October. The Nationals are a very good young team that is not quite ready for the playoffs - but look out for them in 2013. I feel like the Braves overplayed their record last year and will fall back slightly due to a tougher division. The Mets are still rebuilding and don't even look good on paper. In hindsight, I feel like 70 wins was being overly generous...



NL Central:

Reds: 90-72
Cardinals: 81-81
Brewers: 70-92
Cubs: 68-94
Astros: 50-112


Comments: The Reds are the best team in a bad division. As such, I look for them to run away and hide with the division lead pretty early on. The Cardinals cannot overcome the loss of Pujols and flounder at .500 for the year. Likewise, the Brewers are missing a key piece without Fielder and shrink back without his bat. The Cubs are in year one of a likely 3 year rebuilding plan and will likely be out of the race by June. Houston...well, sorry Astros fans, but things don't get any easier. You're moving to a stacked AL West next year and are seriously devoid of any Major League talent. This is a bad team.


NL West

Dodgers 86-76
Giants 85-77
Diamondbacks 82-80
Rockies 75-87
Padres 70-92

Comments: I'm so torn on this division that I could see the Rockies winning the whole thing and not be surprised at all. It's a very competitive division in so much as there are no dominant teams. The Dodgers have a few stars in Kemp and Kershaw, the Giants have great pitching and Posey, the D-Backs are young and proved they could be elite last year. The Rockies have Cuddyer and Tulo and a reliable pitching rotation. In short, plug any team (outside of San Diego...sorry Padres fans) in the top slot here. I think this will be the most entertaining division this year.


Playoffs:

AL Wild Card: Twins Vs. Angels --> Twins (Miracles happen...)
NL Wild Card: Marlins Vs. Giants --> Marlins (They have enough talent to win a 1 game playoff against a team with no offense)

Round 2:
AL Twins Vs. Yankees ---> Twins (Breaking the Yankee curse!)
      Rangers Vs. Tigers ---> Rangers (Texas' pitching > Tiger's hitting)
NL Marlins Vs. Reds ---> Marlins (Reds are the best NL Central team, but not the best NL team)
      Dodgers Vs. Phillies ---> Phillies (All things considered, the Phillies still the best in the NL)

Round 3:
AL Twins Vs. Rangers ---> Twins (Hell, I've gone this far...)
NL Phillies Vs. Marlins ---> Marlins (The Marlins have a history of winning when they shouldn't and the Phillies have a tendency to lose when they shouldn't. This almost writes itself).

World Series: Twins Vs. Marlins ---> Twins (!!)

Okay, so obviously that's my Twins' fan biased opinion. If I were to remove the bias, (I.E. be realistic) I think it'll breakdown more like this:

AL Wild Card: Angels over Twins
NL Wild Card: Marlins over Giants

AL Division: Angels over Yankees
AL Division: Rangers over Tigers
NL Division: Marlines over Reds
NL Division: Phillies over Dodgers

AL Champ: Rangers over Angels
NL Champ: Marlins over Phillies

World Series: Marlins over Rangers.

Yup, the Marlins. I just have a hunch that they're the 'dark horse' team that sneaks in and wins it all this year. I'm sure it's 100% wrong, but at least it's different from the 1,000 other predictions of Angels over Phillies that every 'expert' is making today. Either way, it'll be fun. Here's to an exciting 2012 season!