All things considered, the latest road trip for the Twins ended pretty well. Okay, the last game of the series in Tampa Bay did not end well – the series overall did, however. Last week, I predicted the Twins would split two with the Yankees and take one of three with the Rays.
This 3-4 road trip means the Twins currently sit at 5-11 after 16 games. That is obviously not where they would like to be at this point in the season, but I’d argue that with their schedule, it’s not a bad start. Their only bad losses this year came at the hands of Baltimore before the offense began swinging the bats as well as they have.
The other series results were reasonable as well:
Los Angeles – Twins won 2 of 3
Texas – Swept (Rangers are the best team in the AL by a large margin)
Yankees – Twins won 2 of 2 (IN YANKEE STADIUM!)
Rays – Twins won 1 of 3 (Ran into Shields, who is fantastic and threw Liriano out in game 3… more on that later)
I’ve been saying since day one that this Twins team is better than last year’s team and that they would begin to show others (non Twins fans) this after they got out of the gauntlet that was the opening few weeks of their schedule. After a rough, but respectable start, the Twins now have two series against some opponents who are having a rougher go of the early season.
The Red Sox are in absolute turmoil right now. Bobby Valentine has quickly worn out his welcome with the Red Sox fans and media and the team is doing very little to back him up. Their bullpen is horrid right now, giving up leads at the drop of the hat (none more publicly than a 9 run advantage they gave away to the Yankees on Saturday). The Red Sox come into Target Field reeling, and the Twins needs to take advantage by winning at least 2 out of 3.
Following the Red Sox are the somehow-collapsing-worse Royals. Kansas City has lost 10 straight and simply cannot put a good game together. When their starters pitch well, the offense goes silent, when the bats are hot, the pitchers can’t finish (sounds a lot like the Twins last season). Once again, if the Twins want to play any part of the AL Central race this season they need to beat teams that are struggling. 2 wins in 3 games are required for this series to be a success.
If the Twins can go 4-2 on this next 6 game stint, that would put them at 9-13 and in a great position in the Central.
Liriano Needs Relocation:
Last week, I speculated that Francisco Liriano may need some form of help getting out of his own head. The Twins number two starter has been an absolute abomination this season, giving up at last 5 earned runs in each of his 4 starts. He has lacked control, consistency and confidence, the result is a 0-3 record and an 11.02 ERA.
During Friday night’s FSN telecast, Dick & Bert spoke briefly about a conversation they had with Twins Pitching Coach Rick Anderson. They said that Anderson and Liriano had figured out his lack of early season control was due to an overreliance on his two seam fastball. In spring training, Liriano was leaning heavily on his four seam fastball and it was working – either striking batters out or inducing ground ball outs. Anderson told Liriano to move away from the two seam fastball and instead use the four seam fastball until he feels he’s ready to go back to the two seam fastball.
Apparently, Liriano didn’t listen. By my count, during his first inning alone, Liriano threw 15 pitches. 9 of them were two seam fastballs. That trend continued through the rest of the game. The more Liriano got behind, the more he seemed to lean on the two seamer and the more that two seamer seemed to get away from him. Finally, it happened – Liriano imploded. He walked the bases loaded in the 4th and that was essentially all she wrote for the Twins. At the end of the day, Liriano went another paltry 5 innings, giving up 5 earned runs and walking 4 Rays.
Mechanical, mental or somewhere in between Liriano is a liability to the Twins right now. So, where do the Twins go from here? The way I see it they have a few choices:
1. Put Liriano on the DL with “elbow soreness” or some other malady. Have him go back to the basics and work on his mechanics and try to build up his confidence through one on one interaction with the coaches.
2. Send Liriano down to AAA or even AA. He needs to work on everything – his mechanics, his control, and his pitches – so let him keep getting practice against a lower quality of batter. This is actually what the Blue Jays did with Roy Halladay in 2001. He was struggling with pitch location and command, so the Jays sent him down to the minors and let him work out his problems. You don’t have to be a big time baseball fan to know who well that worked.
The only issue with this plan is that Liriano’s veteran status could allow him to refuse the demotion. That would mean the Twins would have to keep him or release him. Since this is Liriano’s last year of his current contract, he’s likely to fight anything to would cause him to lose long term money next season.
3. Move him to the bullpen. Liriano seems capable of only throwing one to two solid innings before imploding. So, move him to a situation where he only sees one to two innings of work. Swarzak’s arm has already been stretched out to be a starter, so he could easily step back into the rotation to take his place.
Other options include moving Duensing back to a starter (unlikely) or calling up Scott Diamond from AAA (posting a 1.30 ERA in 4 starts this season).
I see option 3 as the most likely choice the Twins will make. This allows them to remove Liriano from the starting rotation while still being able to try to create value for him this season. Both player and team benefit from this move – it could create a solid ‘shut-down’ arm out of the ‘pen for the Twins while Liriano still gets to show teams he is capable of being a high level pitcher (essentially auditioning for his next contract).
Change Is Likely Coming:
The Twins know that Jamey Carroll cannot start everyday at short stop, but they are currently thin at options to back him up. Alexi Casilla can move there in a pinch, but without Luke Hughes (now an Oakland A) they don’t have a dependable 2B alternative.
If Liriano moves to the bullpen, that would make another bullpen pitcher expendable and allow for the Twins to reduce the number of pitchers on the active roster from 13 to 12. It’s likely that Jeff Gray, who has struggled mightily of late, would be the next player to be sent down. Gray is out of options and would have to be placed on waivers, but I don’t think that would stop the Twins from parting ways.
If Gray goes down, who comes up? One option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who has been playing a good deal of time at 2B in AAA this year. Nishioka could be a good utility player – with the ability to cover 2B if Casilla is at SS or even play SS when Carroll needs a day off.
The option Twins fans want to see is Brian Dozier called up and given a chance. That is likely not going to happen, however, as the Twins management is adamant that Dozier stay in the minors until he can get everyday at bats at the major league level. With Carroll playing fairly well, that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
There are some other minor league options bouncing around, but I’d wager Nishioka gets a chance at redemption with the Twins.
Looking Forward:
Marquis takes the mound tonight versus Lester as the Twins look to continue the Red Sox woes. The next six games are critical for the Twins. The only two teams in the AL that are worse than Minnesota are Boston and Kansas City. It’s time to pounce on a lesser team and gain some ground on Detroit. Go Twins!
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