I said a few days ago that a split with the Yankees in New York would be a great indicator for the Twins. I originally said that on the basis that a 2/2 split would have to mean the Twins’ pitching finally got it together and put on a solid performance. Instead, it was the offense that stepped up and simply out hit the Yankees twice.
Early season woes of an anemic offense have long since passed. Clearly Justin Morneau is feeling better and swinging the bat with great authority as he is currently hitting .267 with 4 home runs and 6 RBI. He still seems to lack some plate discipline and is instead simply stepping up to the plate with the intention of hitting a home run or sitting down (AKA the Jim Thome approach). However, a healthy(ier) Morneau is a great thing for the Twins and his bat has been the catalyst to really get this offense moving.
What If…
What if the Twins find themselves out of the race come the trade deadline and the Yankees are in a tight race for the AL East (early indicators look that will be a close contest). If you’re New York, how do you NOT offer a few high quality prospects to the Twins for a rental on Morneau? The way Morneau is absolutely mashing the ball to right combined with Yankee Stadium’s (ridiculously) short right field porch, he could be the big bat that would put the Yankees over the top.
If you’re the Twins, this move clears off roster money, delivers a few more major league ready players to your system (preferably pitchers) and allows the team to be better set up for what could be a very good 2013 season.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like the Yankees and would hate to see them win another World Series. That being said, a Morneau trade at mid-season makes the most sense for everyone involved. (If the Twins are out of it. If they’re in contention the Yankees can go away – Morneau is here to stay.)
Good News:
Look at this lineup (with the benefit of hindsight and current season performance)
Span
Carroll
Mauer
Willingham
Morneau
Parmelee / Doumit
Valencia
Thomas / Plouffe
Casilla
The front end of that lineup gets on base – it’s not always pretty but they are very regularly standing on first after their at bat. Span has picked up right where he left off last season (the first half of it anyway), hitting the ball well and showing the ability to get the game started right. Carroll has such great plate vision and discipline that his appearances usually end up in walks – but on base is on base, I don’t care how you get there!
Those two are followed by Mauer (hitting well, getting on base and moving runners over) and then the terrifying power duo of Willingham and Morneau.
The power front is followed by Parmelee / Doumit, and Valencia (or some combination of that order) who are no slouches at the plate either.
Finally, Plouffe / Thomas and Casilla are not quite the same threat but are good enough to have to be taken seriously. (I.E. they’re not an easy out).
While it may not have the big name appeal of the Rangers, Tigers or Yankees lineups, this is a very consistent and competitive batting order. As the season goes on, I think it will start to get the attention it deserves.
The Not-So-Good
The pitching. Mother of all things holy the pitching… While the batting order could spark fear into some pitchers hearts, the Twins’ starting pitching is likely to only cause laughter (of delight) from the opponent’s batting order. Here’s the current starting 5 (technically 6 due to injuries):
Pavano: 5.23 ERA, 10 K’s, 3 BBs, 4 HRs (1-1)
Liriano: 11.91 ERA, 8 K’s, 9 BBs, 2 HRs (0-2)
Blackburn: 5.56 ERA, 6 K’s, 3 BBs, 1 HR (0-1)
Swarzak: 6.65 ERA, 7 K’s, 3 BBs, 5 HRs (0-3)
Hendriks: 1.50 ERA, 4 K’s, 0 BBs, 1 HR (0-0)
Marquis: 7.20 ERA, 3 K’s, 2 BBs, 1 HR (1-0)
Hendriks is the only starter on that list who has good numbers so far this year. (And that’s only through one start). I’m not as concerned about Pavano as the others as he seems to have figured out whatever was plaguing him early on in the year and has better command of his pitches. I’d expect his ERA to settle into the low 4.00 to 3.5 range as he gets more starts.
Blackburn (if healthy) has shown a great improvement in his mechanics from the past few seasons (he’s actually striking batters out!) If he can continue this consistently, I could see him settling into a solid #3 role in the rotation.
Swarzak, after starting off so well in Baltimore has been shelled by both the Rangers and Yankees. It’s hard to tell if that is simply a result of pitching against fantastic lineups or if he simply doesn’t have the makeup of a starter. He seems to be leaving pitches up in the zone – and when you’re playing against teams like New York, Texas, Detroit and Los Angeles (Angels) you’re going to get beat up for mistakes like that.
Like Pavano, I’m not really concerned about Marquis’ start. By all accounts (via Twins writers and analysts) he was very nervous to be pitching in New York and it’s highly likely that his nerves were the cause of his poor start on Wednesday. Combine that fact with the rust Marquis certainly would have after being away from pitching for a few weeks to deal with his daughter’s injury and I think Marquis’ poor start can be attributed to extenuating circumstances. The fact that he was able to ‘even out’ and pitch well for another 5 innings only helps confirm that theory.
Even if Blackburn, Pavano & Marquis are “Okay” starting pitchers, this staff still doesn’t have that one guy they can send out and get a ‘W’ on any day. (Like the Tigers have in Verlander, the Rays have in Price, the Angels have in CJ Wilson – etc.) If Hendriks can continue to keep his pitches down and keep fooling hitters, maybe he’ll develop into that crafty starter the Twins are looking for. Tonight’s start against the Rays will be a big indicator of that.
Looking Forward:
The Twins start a 3 game series with the Rays tonight in Tampa Bay. If they can continue to swing their bat like they did in New York, they will be in decent shape. Tampa Bay is another high quality AL team so the Twins will certainly have their hands full in each and every game in this series. When this road trip started, I hoped the Twins would at least go 3-4 on the this 7 game swing and still be in position to makeup a little ground once the schedule got easier. The Twins have the talent to take 2 of 3 from Tampa Bay – IF (big if) the pitching can deliver solid outings. A sweep would be debilitating to their early season momentum. Realistically, I think Twins fans should be happy if they pull out 1 win in Tampa and end this stretch with a 5-11 record. 6 games under after series with New York, Texas, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay is not a bad thing at all.
Of course, a sweep (and a 7-9 record) are always welcome! Go Twins!
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