Twins Close To Extending Doumit

The Twins are close to signing Ryan Doumit to a two year contract extension, according to Darren Wolfson and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The details of the contract have yet to be announced, but it sounds like the deal is essentially done and could be signed as early as this evening.

Doumit was originally signed on a 1 year deal that looked beneficial for both parties. The Twins got a stop gap player to help with their catching depth, and Doumit got a chance to play regularly and show that he can remain healthy for a full season.

Doumit has played well with the Twins this season, hitting .271 with 7 home runs, 32 RBI while keeping an OPS of .775. His bat has added some much needed ‘bite’ to the Twins’ offense. Even more valuable is Doumit’s defense. Doumit is a solid defensive catcher, which allows the Twins to flex Joe Mauer between 1B and DH in order to keep him healthy.

The Twins’ decision on Doumit was going to come down to his willingness to sign a contract extension. If the team felt like he was unwilling to sign a long term deal prior to the trade deadline, they had intended to take offers for him.

Instead, it looks like Doumit intends to stay in Minnesota for at least the next two seasons. In a season without much to cheer for, the resigning of Doumit gives something for the fans to look forward to in the coming season.

Twins Drop Series To White Sox

The Twins dropped a 12-5 decision to the White Sox yesterday to lose their 4^th series in the last 5 tries. We’ll take a (thankfully) quick look at each contest and then put this series in the rearview mirror.

Tuesday: White Sox 3 – Twins 2 (Losing pitcher: Liam Hendriks)

Liam Hendriks took to the mound Tuesday night and did everything necessary to earn his first big league win. Hendriks went 6.1 innings, giving up only 5 hits and 3 earned runs while striking out 5. After back to back to back to back (dating back to the start of the season) poor outings, it was nice to see Hendriks show the elite stuff he’s been throwing in AAA.

Also worth a ‘hat tip’ is Tyler Robertson’s major league debut. Robinson entered the game in the 7^th and faced 3 batters – all of which he struck out. Striking out the side in your first major league appearance? That deserves some accolades. Hopefully Robinson continues to yield this strikeout ability and will get to hang around the big leagues for a long while.

All of this positive pitching was wasted, however, thanks to the offense’s inability to push across runs in scoring situations. The Twins tacked on two 9^th inning runs that made the game, and overall final score, look better than it really was. Prior to that, the Twins squandered scoring attempts in the 1^st, 2^nd, 4^th and 6^th innings. You can’t leave that many runs on base and expect to win a game. Chalk this one up as yet another game the Twins should have won – but couldn’t get it done when it counted.

Wednesday: White Sox 12 – Twins 5 (Losing pitcher: Nick Blackburn)

You’ll get games like Wednesday’s 12-5 beating every now and again from Nick Blackburn. Sometimes, he’ll take to the mound and look like a dominant pitcher – inducing ground balls and keeping runners off the bases (see: Nick Blackburn’s previous two starts) other times he’ll look like he did yesterday – his pitches stay up in the zone and get smashed all over the yard.

There’s not much else to add about yesterday’s loss. You’ll get these games from a #5 starter like Blackburn (the fact that he’s the Twins’ #3 is irrelevant here…at least that’s what I’m telling myself to feel better).

Looking Forward:

The Twins start a 4 game series with the Royals on Friday that includes a double header on Saturday. Brian Duensing (1-3 3.82 ERA) will get his second start of the year on Friday against Luis Mendoza (2-4 4.95 ERA). Game one Saturday will be Scott Diamond (6-3 2.67 ERA) against Jonathan Sanchez (1-3 6.21 ERA) while game two will feature a yet-to-be-determined Twins starter against Luke Hochevar (5-7 5.07 ERA). The final game of the series on Sunday has Francisco Liriano (2-7 5.30 ERA) facing off with Bruce Chen (7-4 4.53 ERA).

On paper, the Twins should be at an advantage with each of these matchups (outside of Sunday’s game against “Twin killer” Bruce Chen), however, the Royals are coming off of a 3 game sweep of Tampa Bay and have been playing better baseball of late. With the inconsistent offense and pitching, there’s no telling which Twins team will take to the field on any given day.

These Twins / Royals matchups have a little excitement as they are the battle to stay out of last place in a very bad AL Central…so…there’s that.

Developing Market For Liriano?

Yesterday was not a good day to be a New York Yankees fan. The day started with the Yankees putting CC Sabathia on the DL due to a groin strain. It ended with Andy Pettite being lost for 4 to 6 weeks after he took a ground ball off of his leg – and BROKE HIS FIBULA (Insert old man / broken bone joke here – I’m partial to “At his age, he’s lucky it wasn’t a hip!” or “Luckily, he had Life Alert and received medical care quickly”)

This leaves the Yankees desperate for pitching (one could argue they were desperate before – as they had to pull Andy Pettite out of retirement to fill holes in their rotation) and the Twins holding a nice ‘fix’ in Francisco Liriano. This is what we’d like to call a “seller’s market”.

Also potentially in the pitching market are the Texas Rangers, who have had to put 3 starting pitchers on the DL over the past month. Neither situation is ideal for Liriano as the Rangers play in a hitter’s park and Liriano could struggle with the pressure of New York; but with two very high profile teams suddenly in the market for pitching, you’d have to believe the Twins are on the phone and letting them know that Franky is available.

The one downside to this market is that the Twins are not the only sellers. The Cubs, at a major league worst 26-49 are letting it be known that both Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza are available for the right price.

Even the most hardcore Twins fan could admit that both Garza and Dempster are better pitchers (currently) than Liriano. With the Cubs clearly in sell mode, the Twins may need to act fast and move Liriano while the price is at its highest point.

Movers & Shakers

The Twins announced after Wednesday’s game that they were demoting reliever Jeff Manship and calling right handed reliever Kyle Waldrop to the majors. Manship struggled mightly during his brief stint in the big leagues and Wednesday’s 6^th inning effort (5 hits, 3 runs) was likely the final straw for Twins’ management.

Waldrop looked to be a candidate to make the roster out of spring training, but ended up on the DL due to a strained elbow. Waldrop was then optioned to AAA to get his arm strength back and get regular appearances while rehabbing. In 9 appearances with Rochester, Waldrop only yielded 5 walks and struck out 5 all while posting a 1.26 ERA. Waldrop looked lights out in spring training, so he’s likely here to stay as a middle reliever.

Lights Out Liriano, Twins Win 4-1 (A good, bad, ugly recap)

I honestly try to be an optimistic fan, I really do. I’m always looking for the bright side in a Twins’ loss, trying to find the positives in a bad season and otherwise viewing the Minnesota Twins in a ‘glass half full’ perspective.

That being said, I came into last night’s game with very little optimism. The White Sox were putting Jake Peavy on the mound, who in 14 1/3 innings at Target Field, had yet to allow a run to score. Meanwhile the Twins were rolling out Francisco Liriano, the physical embodiment of Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde.

On paper, this looked like a White Sox win. Then again, games aren’t played on paper (enter your own sports cliché here).

The Good: Good Frankie continues to make appearances. While Liriano had improved over his last five starts (1-2 record with a 2.67 ERA), he had yet to face ‘elite’ competition. Twins fans can be forgiven for saying “let’s wait and see” when it came to Liriano’s sudden turnaround. He had been so disastrously bad that a team desperate for starting pitching chose to move him to the bullpen.

Last night, Liriano proved that his sudden ‘fix’ wasn’t just pitching against bad teams. Liriano pitched 7 innings (his longest outing since August of 2011) allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 5. Of the 21 outs Liriano caused, 10 were ground ball outs and 5 were strikeouts. That’s a good indicator that Liriano has fixed his early season issues. He’s not leaving the ball up in the zone and not allowing batters to get solid contact on the ball. It may be too late now, but the return of a reliable Francisco Liriano is always going to be a good thing for the Twins.

The Bad: Last night’s offense nearly left Liriano hanging once again. On the surface, things looked great as the Twins jumped out to an early 3-0 lead on Peavy and the White Sox while striking for 14 hits. A closer look shows that this game should have been a whole lot uglier, however.

The Twins left 13 runners on base, squandering scoring opportunities in the 3^rd, 5^th, 7^th and 8^th. While this team does not struggle to score with runners in scoring position like they did at the beginning of the season, tonight’s outing was frustratingly reminiscent of those early season games. Thankfully the offense pushed across enough to earn a win – making this “bad” a lot less painful than it could have been.

The Ugly: In a well played 4-1 win where both pitchers had strong outings and both teams played well, you really have to dig to find an ugly moment. Luckily (?) Ron Gardenhire had a head scratching moment in the bottom of the 7^th that was dumb enough to qualify for the “ugly” portion of this recap.

In the bottom of the 7^th, with the Twins holding on to a 3-1 lead, the offense started to catch fire. Ben Revere singled, Joe Mauer singled (moving Revere to 3^rd), Revere tried to steal on a dropped ball by Pierzynski (bad idea, and runner up for ‘ugly’ moment of last night’s game) and was called out at home. Josh Willingham walked, as did Justin Morneau, loading the bases for Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe made solid contact with the ball, but was robbed of a hit by Alex Rios, who made a great shoestring catch to limit the Twins to one run (Mauer smartly advanced on the throw in to first).

Brian Dozier stepped to the plate and earned a walk, loading the bases once again for Drew Butera. Now, Butera is an improved hitter this season in comparison to last season, but Butera isn’t exactly the guy you want at the plate with the bases loaded and two out.

On the bench, the Twins had Ryan Doumit, a player who you would LIKE to have up to bat with the bases loaded and two out. Even better, Doumit plays Butera’s position! Common sense would seem to dictate that the Twins pull Butera and send in Doumit to bat and catch the last two innings.

Common sense didn’t prevail – fear did. Gardy, likely worried about a potential injury to Doumit hurting the team (Mauer was DH and  likely wouldn’t have been able to catch anyway with his lingering calf injury) decided to let Butera swing away in a key spot. Butera, predictably, softly grounded out to third and the Twins didn’t push across any extra runs.

Of course, Perkins and Burton combined to pitch two solid innings and the Twins 3 run lead proved to be more than enough to win – but the fact remains, this key situation in a tight ballgame was mismanaged. Is it nitpicking? Probably, but in an otherwise good game, Gradenhire’s momentary brain lapse is this game’s “ugly” moment.

Looking Forward:

Liam Hendriks takes to the mound tonight, looking to channel some of that AAA mojo into a good MLB start. Hendriks has the talent to be a good major league pitcher; we’ve seen it in AAA and in two early starts this season. Lately, however, Hendriks has been easy to hit and has been knocked from his starts early on. Hopefully tonight he’ll be able to keep the Twins in the game against Gavin Floyd and the White Sox.

The End Of Interleague

Sunday marked the conclusion of the Twins’ interleague schedule for 2012 – in fact; it marked the likely end of traditional interleague play as we know it. With the Houston Astros moving to the AL West next season, both the AL and NL will have 15 teams, facilitating a move to a “full-time” interleague schedule. We’ll delve into the pros and cons of that in a future post, for now, let’s focus on the Twins.

Coming into this stretch of interleague play, the Twins were riding a 7-2 winning steak and playing some of the best baseball of early June. Their interleague scheduled lined up favorably as well with the first 3 matchups being against losing teams (Chicago, Philadelphia and Milwaukee). Of their final two matchups, only the series against the Reds looked tough on paper.

Twins fans, myself included, were left to speculate “What if?” What if this team continues this hot streak and starts to creep up on the division leaders? What if this team is finally playing like it is capable of?

With a hot team and a weak interleague schedule, the Twins (and their fans) entered the middle of June with a lot of hope and their sights set high. Then this happened:

Vs Chicago: Series win (2-1)

Vs Philadelphia: Series loss (1-2)

Vs Milwaukee: Series loss (1-2)

Vs Pittsburgh: Series loss (1-2)

Vs Cincinnati: Series win (2-1)

Time to come back down to earth Twins fans. This team’s hot start to June was just as we feared – a mere illusion.

While the Twins did manage to take 2 of 3 from a very good Cincinnati team by rallying in the 9^th inning yesterday – the tone of a 7-8 interleague showing (9-9 overall) shows the true colors of this 2012 Twins team. They’re a good team with flaws and they’re still a ways away from contending.

News & Notes:

Major League Baseball needs to have an answer for the DH rule by the start of next season. Preferably, they’ll elect to extend the DH into NL games, regardless of the home park (essentially duplicating the AL rules). After watching Twins pitchers look ugly at the plate during the Pittsburgh and Cincinnati series, I’ve seen enough pitchers hitting for my lifetime.

Traditionalists detest the DH rule and boast about the strategy required to hit with your pitcher. I could honestly care less about strategy – I want to see good baseball. A pitcher functioning as an auto out is not good baseball.

Moving the rule to both leagues would also eliminate the AL free agent advantage. Essentially AL teams can (and do) sign big name free agents to long term deals (Fielder, Pujols, A-Rod) because the players (and teams) know that the later years of that contract can be played out at DH.

NL teams would be on a level playing field when bidding for potential free agents and teams such as the Cubs would not be strung up by a bloated contract like the one they have in Alfonso Soriano (who would be a perfect DH for the Cubs – if they were allowed to use him as such).

***

Matt Capps has been on the bench over the past week due to shoulder soreness. Capps made an appearance during the Twins 6-0 loss to the Reds on Saturday, and afterwards told Manager Ron Gardenhire that his soreness and inflammation had returned. The team announced after yesterday’s game that they were promoting Rochester reliever Tyler Robertson and this morning announced that the corresponding move would be to place Capps on the 15 day DL.

In the meantime, the Twins will go to a closer by committee – choosing to use both Glen Perkins and Jared Burton to finish off games. Perkins and Burton both have the stuff to be closers in the future, so it will be nice for the Twins to see what they have at the back end of their bullpen for a few games.

The downside to the Capps injury is that any sustained absence likely hurts his trade value. As I’ve said before, Capps is worth one thing and one thing only to the Twins – prospects.

***

Brian Duensing began the year as a long reliever out of the Twins bullpen, a role that he was excelling at during the first half of this year. However, due to injuries to Carl Pavano and PJ Walters and the ineffective pitching of Cole DeVries, the Twins were forced to pull Duensing out of the ‘pen for Saturday’s start. Duensing threw three strong innings before obviously tiring in the 4^th, yielding 4 runs before being pulled from the game.

Duensing had not pitched any longer than 3 innings this season, so it wasn’t surprising to see him struggle beyond that point. The Twins announced that they plan on keeping Duensing in the rotation for at least one more start, with other starts being made as necessary. If Duensing can build up his arm strength, he may become the Twins second best starter – he was a solid starter for the team in 2010 and looked every bit a great starter for his first three innings on Saturday.

***

Trevor Plouffe has 10 home runs in June. The record for home runs in one month for the Twins is held by Harmon Killebrew, who hit 14 in 1964. While Killer’s record is likely safe, that doesn’t diminish what Plouffe has done in June. If Plouffe can continue to swing a dangerous bat, the Twins big “who plays third?” problem may have finally found an answer.

***

Good Frankie or Bad Teams?

Francisco Liriano has rediscovered his pitching mojo recently – turning an ugly 0-5 record and ERA of 9.45 into a 1-2 record and 2.67 ERA in his most recent 5 starts. The questions remains, was this due to an improved Liriano? Or, was it due to lower tier opponents?

We’ll likely find out tonight as Liriano takes to the mound against the AL Central leading White Sox. If Liriano can keep the game close and not get knocked around the field, I think Twins fans can stop fearing for the worst each time Liriano takes to the mound. A strong outing tonight will also likely cement Liriano’s rising trade value. Conversely, a bad outing sends Liriano right back to the junk pile. No pressure Frankie, but a lot is riding on this start.

The Pros and Cons of Moving Josh Willingham

The Twins find themselves at an interesting crossroads, they clearly are going to be trade deadline sellers, but the question remains – how much do you sell? Over the next few posts, I’d like to take a look at a few of the tougher calls and weigh the pros and cons of dealing that player. We’ll start this series by looking at one of the newest Twins – Josh Willingham.

Willingham’s Season: Josh Willingham is experiencing a career resurgence with the Twins in 2012. He’s hitting .279 with a .936 OPS while smashing 14 home runs and driving in 46 RBI. Willingham is built to hit at Target Field. His tendency is to pull the ball down the left field line, which is the easiest way to hit one out of the new Twins ballpark. Willingham is on pace to break career records for home runs (29 in 2011 is his high mark) RBI (98 in 2011) and batting average (.277 in 2006).

Willingham’s bat has been the winning factor in quite a few games for the Twins already this season. His walk-off homer against the A’s on May 29^th helped spark the Twins early June hot streak and his solo shot against the Pirates last night proved to be the winning run. Willingham has quickly earned a place as a fan favorite and is one of the few bright spots on an otherwise underperforming team this season.

Why The Twins Should Keep Him:

See all of the above numbers. Willingham is an offensive machine who is clearly having a career year. 2011 saw Willingham put up the best numbers of his career – until 2012 rolled along. As mentioned, if Willingham keeps up his current pace, he’ll break all of his single season records this year.

Willingham is on the later half of his career, but his numbers seem to indicate a late career resurgence. While it’s uncommon for aging players to suddenly find an offensive “boom” later in their careers, it’s certainly not unheard. The most recent example is Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays. At 32, Bautista is continuing to show the power and plate discipline that only developed over the past two seasons. (Bautista hit 54 home runs when he was 30, after never hitting more than 16 prior to that).

Could Willingham be having a Jose Bautista like offensive explosion? His 2011 and early 2012 numbers seem to indicate that may be the case.

Another point in favor of keeping Willingham is his popularity with fans. Although Target Field is still a new park, the Twins front office cannot simply rely on its “newness” to sell tickets any longer. They have to put a contending team on the field to draw crowds – or at the very least have a player that fans want to see. Right now, Willingham is the most exciting offensive player the Twins have. Getting rid of him could damage their ticket sales and overall attendance for the rest of 2012.

The final point in favor of keeping Willingham is that this Twins team may not be as far away from contending as once thought. Their offensive core is solid with Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Chris Parmelee, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau all under contract for the next two to three years. Their outfield defense may be one of the toughest in the majors with Span and Revere patrolling the gaps. Their infield defense has become respectable as well. Brian Dozier is young, but he will improve and Jamey Carroll has provided a nice veteran presence this season as well.

The biggest need of this team is pitching. Luckily Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano’s contracts all come off of the books next season. In addition, there is a large amount of solid free agent pitchers entering the market this offseason. With a few free agent signings, this pitching staff could be come respectable quickly, making the Twins competitors. If that happens, the team will need Willingham’s bat to make any serious run at a title.

Why The Twins Should Trade Willingham:

In the stock market, it’s all about buying low and selling high. Major League Baseball is not much different from the stock market in that respect. If you have a valuable asset, it’s in your best interest to sell high on that asset if you cannot utilize its benefits. The Twins are not going to be a contending team in 2012 and Josh Willingham is having a career year. With the market for power bats looking like it will be competitive and aggressive, the Twins are likely never going to get as much for Josh Willingham as they would right now. They bought relatively low, signing Willingham to a very reasonable contract – now they can sell high and flip his surging power for an armful of prospects.

Josh Willingham is also 33 years old. Jose Bautista aside, it’s not very common for players to surge like this in their 30’s. The odds of Willingham continuing this production, and staying healthy, for the next two to three years are slim to none.

Yes, the Twins could be a few pitching acquisitions away from being a contending team – but what happens if the front office waits one more year to spend their free agent dollars? Just like 2012, the Twins front office could decide that the team isn’t quite ready to contend and choose to spend a minimal amount in free agency. Without a repaired pitching staff, this team is not going to contend. In which case, holding on to Willigham would be a big mistake.

What I Would Do:

My opinion on what I would do in the Twins situation is predicated on two points. First, I would need to know what my intentions for 2013 were. If I plan to let the minor leaguers develop and not spend much in free agency, I’ll move Willingham this season. If I intend to be an active and aggressive bidder for free agent pitching, I’m keeping Willingham as a cornerstone of my offense.

Secondly, I would need to know the market for power bats. If the 2012 trade deadline market is filled with aggressive teams looking for that one big bat, the return on such players is likely to be hefty. In that situation, regardless of my plans for next season, I think I would move Willingham and refill my farm system.

Conversely, if the market is oversaturated and the return looks to only be a few lower tier prospects, I’d hold onto Willingham, regardless of my plans for the next season. It’s in the best interest of the Twins to move Willingham only if they will be better after the trade – without an aggressive trade market, that wouldn’t happen.

In the end, my gut says the next month will determine a lot. If this team begins to fade like it did after the trade deadline last season, I believe nearly every player outside of a select few will have “for sale” signs around their necks. If the Twins can keep playing .500 baseball, I have a hunch the team will hold onto Willingham and take their chances on a run next season.

The Good, Bad & The Ugly Of TheTwins' Return To Earth

The Good: We now know the direction the Twins will be heading coming into the trade deadline. This weekend’s series with the Brewers helped confirm what many Twins fans (if they were being honest with themselves) already knew. This team, as presently constructed, is not good enough to contend for the World Series, let alone the AL Central title.

From Memorial Day through June 12^th, the Twins were one of the hottest teams in baseball, riding a 10-3 streak and looking every bit a like a possible contending team. Things began to unravel in the Philadelphia series, as the starting pitching surrendered too many early runs and the Twins offense could not overcome the whole. The Twins dropped the Phillies series and looked to regroup against a poor Brewers team before the embarked on a harder NL Central road trip.  

Unfortunately, the Twins dropped 2 of 3 to the Brewers and the old flaws began to show once again. Poor starting pitching, inconsistent offense – defensive errors. The upside of this recent return to Earth is that the team (and their fans) now knows which direction this team should be going come the trade deadline.

The Bad & The Ugly: The missed opportunity of this 2012 Twins team. Coming into the 2011/2012 offseason, the Twins announced that they would be trimming their payroll down to “below 100 million”. Fans bemoaned this announcement, and rightly so. This team had just lost 99 games and clearly needed some things fixed in order to right the ship. By cutting payroll, it was clear that any improvements were coming at the expense of other needs.

The offseason started fairly well for the Twins. They began rebuilding their thin bench by letting expensive veterans Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave. In Cuddyer’s place, the Twins signed Josh Willingham, a batter who is built for the dimensions of Target Field. The Twins shored up their catching depth by adding Ryan Doumit, another solid bat and a good defensive catcher to allow Joe Mauer to take some days off and play some time at 1B.

The defensive inefficiencies of last season were patched with veteran infielder Jamey Carroll. Youngsters Chris Parmelee and Brain Dozier were allowed to blossom on the major league stage, adding even more depth to the end of the bench.

As the offseason progressed, it became clear that the offense had been addressed – at the expense of pitching.

Before I go any further, let me say that I can see the reasoning behind trimming the payroll for the Twins. The team had lost 99 games the previous season and was taking a beating in attendance. They could not realistically afford to put another losing team out there at $120 million.

The problem with this logic is that you’re condemning yourself to the problem you’re trying to avoid by cutting payroll. I buy tickets to Twins games and I (and many other fans) suffered through a horrible 99 loss season. When the front office announces that this bad campaign is being followed with a spending slash, I take pause before ordering any tickets for the coming season. The cut in payroll doesn’t entice fans to come to the park, rather it makes them more selective with the spending (why spend money to watch bad baseball?)

The 2011 / 2012 offseason was mishandled by the Twins front office. Was cutting salary needed? Yes, should they have cut it so dramatically? No.

What adds insult to injury is the market was full of pitchers who would fit the Twins’ needs. Such as:

Mark Buehrle (Marlins – 4 years 58 Mil.)

Bruce Chen (Royals – 2 years 9 Mil.)

Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners – 1 year 1.5 Mil.)

Edwin Jackson (Nationals – 1 year 11 Mil.)

Paul Maholm (Cubs – 1 year 4.75 Mil.)

Joe Suanders (D-Backs – 1 year 6 Mil.)

Tsuyoshi Wada (Orioles – 2 years 8.5 Mil)

I’ll concede that Mark Buehrle’s and Edwin Jackson’s markets inflated past the point the Twins were willing to spend. Even so, the Twins thought the answer to their problems would be to sign aging Jason Marquis to a one year $3 million contract. This put the opening day payroll at or around $94 million.

Let’s play devil’s advocate here and see what the pitching staff could have looked like if the Twins played this offseason a little smarter. Instead of slashing the payroll to $94 million, let’s say we drop it to a more reasonable $105 million. The Twins then could have signed:

Bruce Chen $5 M / year

Hisashi Iwakuma $2 M / year

Paul Maholm $5 M / year

(Prices slightly inflated, as the Twins would have to have beaten out the “best offer” the players signed for).

That’s $12 million in payroll. Add that to the $91 million base ($94 less Marquis’ contract) and you have $103 million in payroll. You’ve still slashed $17 million but you’ve built a pitching staff that is much improved from what you had.

The 2012 pitching staff could have been:

1. Francisco Liriano
2. Hisashi Iwakuma
3. Bruce Chen
4. Paul Maholm
5. Carl Pavano
6. Nick Blackburn (likely moved to bullpen)

In the end, we’re talking about a $9 million difference in actual payroll to theoretical payroll – but larger than that is the W/L difference. If this team would have had a staff like the one listed above, there’s no way they are in last place in the AL Central. Even with 5 serviceable starters, this Twins team could have been in the race. A competing team will draw fans back to the stands – ending the ticket concerns as well.

The problem was the Tiger’s aggressive offseason spending and acquisition of Prince Fielder scared the Twins front office. They looked at where their team stood, and then at the (potential) powerhouse that Detroit had put together and simply conceded the season. The team opted to not spend the money this season because they didn’t think they would win the division even if they spent that extra $9-$15 million.

That logic is fair and reasonably savvy so long as the game plays out in reality like it does on paper. Of course, we all know that the game never plays like it does on paper.

Detroit looks nothing like the powerhouse they were supposed to be, and now the Twins front office looks moronic in their defense of non-spending this offseason. This revamped offense is good enough to contend – the fact they are so far out of the race is ‘bad’.

The fact that the Twins’ front office seemingly threw in the towel on the 2012 campaign is downright ugly.

Morneau's Market

Speculation has been bubbling up since April regarding who the Twins would move at the trade deadline to gain better assets for 2013 and 2014. The usual names, Willingham, Span, Doumit, Liriano and Carroll are brandied about like their departures are forgone conclusions (I don’t agree, but we’ll cover that in another post). The one player that baseball experts and analysts cannot seem to agree on is Justin Morneau.

After missing the later half of 2010 due to concussion symptoms and then much of 2011 due to a wrist injury and re-aggravating those concussion symptoms, Morneau has returned with a vengeance to the Twins lineup. He is hitting .241 with 10 HR and 33 RBI in 46 games this season. Outside one brief stint on the bench due to a sore wrist, Morneau has been healthy this season as well.

With the Twins looking more and more like a team that is entering rebuilding and restocking mode, an aging Morneau is less of a valuable player, more of a valuable trade chip for the franchise.

Yesterday, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the trade market for Morneau could be hampered by other GMs’ reluctance to deal for the aging slugger after his concussion issues. An additional sticking point for Monrneau is his $23 million contract over the next two seasons. The Twins would have to be willing to eat a portion of his contract (conceivable – but unlikely given their own goals) to move him to a majority of teams.

This morning, Danny Knobler of CBSsports.com reported that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos had inquired about Morneau with the Twins – but nothing firm has developed from that discussion. Still, the rumblings in the baseball world seem to indicate that the Blue Jays are interested in acquiring Morneau if the price is right.

Trade Market:

Which teams are currently in the market for a power bat to aid their playoff push? The pool isn’t as deep as you might think.

We can cross any NL contenders off this list as Morneau’s use is commonly viewed as a DH / 1B hybrid. NL squads won’t part with high prospects for a part time 1B. (Of course this can change – but for the sake of simplicity, we’re excluding NL teams).

AL teams that are currently in the playoff hunt include:

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Indians

Detroit Tigers

NY Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Texas Rangers

LA Angels

Detroit, Texas and Los Angeles are not in need of a power bat to DH, so they’re off the list.

The Twins aren’t going to deal Morneau to someone within their division – so Chicago and Cleveland are gone too.

Baltimore and Tampa Bay are unlikely to set aside a large portion of cash for an aging DH – so they’re out as well.

That leaves New York, Boston and Toronto as the most viable suitors for Morneau. Of that group, only two are likely to still be in contention come July 31^st – let’s say for the sake of argument that those two are New York and Toronto.

New York: In all honesty, Justin Morneau to the Yankees makes the most sense for all parties involved. New York has young pitching prospects that the Twins desperately need and Morneau is the big bat the Yankee lineup is missing. Morneau hits well at Yankee Stadium, in just 12 games at the new park, Morneau has hit 7 home runs with 10 runs batted in. He holds a .478 batting average and a 1.043 slugging percentage. His bat in that Yankee lineup would dramatically improve their offense.

Toronto: The Blue Jays are the interesting wild card here. Morneau makes sense in their already talented lineup. Already set with Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus and Edwin Encarnacion, the Jays’ lineup becomes even more formidable with one more bat. In addition, Justin Morneau is Canadian, so the “butts in the seats” factor could be in play for the Jays. Simply put, a big name Canadian star sells tickets in a Canadian market. Toronto does have a deep farm system that is full of young pitching prospects – so they have the means to acquire Morneau as well.

If it comes down to a pure bidding war, you’d have to tip your hat to the Yankees. Unless the Jays are willing to offer more prospects than the Yankees, New York holds the upper hand. They can (and likely would) take on Morneau’s entire contract while Toronto may ask for some cash considerations from the Twins.

While it would be hard for Twins fans to see their beloved former MVP in pinstripes – the organization and its fans need to realize that the long term health of their franchise has to be a bigger priority than holding on to an aging 1B/DH hybrid due $23 million over the next two seasons. Justin Morneau is far from done, but he isn’t going to help the Twins rebuilding efforts by taking the field in Minnesota over the next two seasons.

The Good, Bad and Ugly of a Twins Loss

The Good: Trevor Plouffe continues to swing a hot bat. His solo shot in the 2^nd inning last night amounted to what would be the only Twins run in a 6-1 loss to the Phillies. Plouffe has now homered in 3 straight games and is slugging an out of this world .950 in June. As an added bonus, Plouffe has also been playing very strong defense at third base for the Twins. He has yet to make a throwing error at third this season.

The only person that is hampered by Plouffe’s sudden breakout (other than Twins opponents) is Danny Valencia. Since being demoted, Valencia has struggled with a batting average around .220 – with Plouffe playing as well as he has, Valencia isn’t coming back to the majors anytime soon.

The Bad: The Twins broke their streak of 4 straight series wins by dropping last night’s game 6-1. Starting pitching, which had been much improved during those series wins, takes most of the blame for the two losses against Philadelphia. PJ Walters and Jeff Manship combined to give up 6 early runs on Wednesday night, creating a hole the Twins offense could not climb out of. Thursday, Scott Diamond was struggling with control issues early on and allowed the Phillies to climb to an early 4-1 lead.

Honorable mention for “the bad” goes to last night’s offense. Coming into the game, Joe Blanton had averaged 5 earned runs per start this season. Conversely, Scott Diamond was only yielding 1 earned run per game. If you would have told most Twins fans last night’s final score, I believe a large majority would have assumed that was a 6-1 Twins win. The offense should have gotten more against the hittable Blanton, but failed to do so.

The Ugly: Jim Thome’s numbers against the Twins. Thome has 61 career home runs versus Minnesota – which is the most for any opponent AND Thome’s 24 career home runs at Target Field is a record for any player. Simply put – Thome is a Twins killer. Thome drove in 9 RBI during this series, which was also a personal best for the slugger.

Jim Thome is a Twins’ fan favorite – but he sure hurts the home team when he’s not in the Minnesota uniform.

Looking Forward: The Twins start a three game series against the slumping Brewers tonight at 7:10 PM. Francisco Liriano (1-7 6.45 ERA ) takes the mound for the Twins and looks to extend his strong start streak to 4 as he faces off against Yovani Callardo (5-5 4.21 ERA) of the Brewers. Saturday’s game, which starts at 1:10 PM, is a matchup between Michael Fiers (1-2 4.50 ERA) of the Brewers and a player TBD by the Twins (Likely Liam Hendriks).

With two tough matchups against the Reds and Pirates coming up, the Twins need to get wins against teams like the Brewers. This series will do a lot for setting the tone of the team for the next few weeks. Another series win and the “can they contend?” questions will continue. Another series loss and the team may have to finally admit to being sellers at the deadline.

Twins Recap: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

The Good: The Twins offense has been one of the best offenses in the majors of late. Tuesday night’s 10-7 win over the Phillies saw the Twins set a record for most home runs in one game this season. Denard Span hit his second homer of the year in the first inning, the red hot Trevor Plouffe hit his 10^th in 2^nd inning and Josh Willingham smashed his 12^th homer of the season in the 6^th.

Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Caroll all hit doubles during the game and Ben Revere added to the cause by going 3 for 5 with 2 RBI. The only batter who had a bad game on Tuesday was the rookie Brian Dozier, going 0-5 with 2 strikeouts.

The Twins lost 9-8 to the Phillies on Wednesday night, but the Twins offense remained red hot. Plouffe and Willingham homered once again (11^th and 13^th of the season, respectively) while Dozier and Span added a double apiece.

The Twins’ offense is rolling right now with Ben Revere batting .342 with 7RBI and 9 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Trevor Plouffe continues to be the hottest hitter on the team. Plouffe has hit 9 home runs in his last 19 games. During this span he is batting .299/.325/.714 with 23 hits, 5 doubles and 1.039 OPS. In fact, Trevor Plouffe’s slugging percentage of .944 for the month of June is the highest in baseball.

The Bad: The Twins pitching continues to be one of the worst staffs in baseball. Despite gaining the win Tuesday, Nick Blackburn was shelled giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 5 innings of work. The usually reliable Brian Duensing was hit hard in the 6^th inning as he stepped in to relieve Blackburn – giving up 2 hits and 3 earned runs on his own.

Things only got worse for the Twins on Wednesday night as PJ Walters gave up 4 hits and was lifted from the game without recording an out. Walter’s final line was 0.0 IP, 4 hits and 4 earned runs. Jeff Manship and Anthony Swarzak did not fair much better in relief. Manship gave up 5 hits and 3 earned runs in 3 innings of work, Swarzak yielded 4 hits and 2 earned runs in 4 innings.

In the end, the Twins subpar pitching performance Wednesday squandered what was an otherwise outstanding game. That’s been the tale of the season so far for the Twins – the offense has been capable, but they can’t overcome some of the holes that the pitching staff puts the team into.

The Ugly: PJ Walters last 3 starts:

June 6^th Vs. Cleveland: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO (No decision)

June 8^th Vs. Chicago: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO (No decision)

June 13^th Vs. Philadelphia: 0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO (Loss)

Walters was pulled during Wednesday’s start due to shoulder tightness – and it was apparent that Walters was not 100% almost immediately, as his fastball velocity was only hitting 83 MPH on the Target Field gun.

Injury aside, it’s starting to look like teams are figuring Walters out. He never has had lights out stuff, but he can manage the strike zone and throw strikes. When he was first called up, that ability allowed Walters to keep the balls in play, keep the runners off the bases and manage the game. As teams are getting a better scouting report, it looks like hitters are ready for everything Walters has – as such, he’s been getting lit up in his past few starts.

As of my writing this, there hasn’t been a formal announcement about Walters’ status, but it’s likely that the Twins will store Walters on the DL for 15 days and let his shoulder injury recover. After that, it will depend on how desperate the Twins are for a starting pitcher – but I’d wager Walters would be sent back to AAA.

News & Notes:

The Twins announced last night that Lester Oliveros (best known as the player the Twins got from Detroit in the Delmon Young trade) had been promoted from AAA Rochester and would join the team on Thursday. Oliveros’ promotion makes sense as the Twins bullpen has been hit hard over the past two games.

In the minors (AAA & AA) this season, Oliveros had posted a 2.70 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 12 walks in 36.2 innings of work. He’s a strikeout pitcher who has seen action with the Twins before (late in 2011) and should work nicely as a middle reliever for the short term.

With Walters likely heading to the DL, the Twins will need to make a few adjustments to their starting rotation. Liam Hendriks is expected to be called up to start Sunday’s game against Milwaukee. If he can continue to pitch like he had been in Rochester, odds are he’ll get to stick around. With off days, the Twins can stretch that current rotation (Diamond, Blackburn, Liriano, Hendriks) to the next weekend, which may be in time for Carl Pavano to come off of the disabled list.

With Hendriks’ (likely) promotion, the Twins will have to make a corresponding roster move. Jeff Manship could be sent back to AAA, as he’s been largely ineffective as a reliever in 4 appearances this season (5.68 ERA in 6.1 innings). Jeff Gray, who continues to be boom or bust in each appearance (1 hit, 0 ER in last night’s game. 3 hits, 3 earned runs in Saturday’s appearance) could be designated for assignment. The Twins could also demote a bench player such as Darin Mastroianni, Drew Butera or Chris Parmelee.

Parmelee was just promoted due to his hot play in AAA, but he has largely sat on the bench since his promotion. Likewise, Mastroianni has gathered dust since Ben Revere became red hot. Parmelee adds depth to the roster and has earned a chance to start so I don’t see the Twins sending him down. Mastroianni has played well when given the chance and is the team’s 4^th outfielder; his demotion is unlikely as well. Butera is the emergency catcher and allows Gardy to rotate Mauer / Doumit and not worry about injury. He’s likely safe too.

If I was to place a bet on it (I’m not – that’s a silly thing to bet on…) I’d say Maship is likely to be sent to AAA. Gardy seems to like Gray too much to toss him and the bench has been established nicely with Parmelee, Butera, Casilla and Mastroianni.

Looking Ahead: Diamond (5-1, 1.61 ERA) takes the mound tonight vs. Blanton (5-6, 5.40 ERA) as the Twins go for their 5^th straight series win.

Blanton has been struggling of late and Diamond is the Twins’ ace – this is a very winnable game. First pitch is at 7:10 PM CT – weather permitting.

The Resurgance Of Trevor Plouffe

Trevor Plouffe has always been a bit of an enigma for the Twins. The former first round draft pick in 2004 was drafted 20^th overall by the Twins and slated to be the team’s future short stop. Plouffe was Collegiate Baseball News’ “High School All American” in 2004 and scouts had Plouffe as high 6^th overall in minor league prospects.

Plouffe was slated to be a power hitting middle infielder, able to put up solid average while driving the ball well. Plouffe’s defensive skills were questioned when he was drafted, but it was assumed that practice and coaching could fix those mechanical errors.

The bar was set pretty high for Plouffe right out of the gate.

From 2004 to 2009, Plouffe played in every minor league level.  In May of 2010, Plouffe made his major league debut with the Twins, appearing in 22 games overall. Plouffe was hitting well in AAA during his 2010 season hitting .244/.300/.430 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI in 102 games.  That offense didn’t carry over after his promotion, however, as Plouffe only hit .146/.143/.317 with 2 home runs and 6 RBI, meaning Plouffe didn’t get a long shot at staying on the major league roster.

In 2011, the stage looked set for Plouffe to step into a starting role. The Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka out of Japan with the intention of playing Plouffe, Alexi Casilla and Nishioka between shortstop and second base throughout the season. When Nishioka went down during the first few weeks of the regular season with a broken leg, Plouffe had an opportunity to become an everyday starter.

Plouffe played 62 games between shortstop and second base during the 2011 season committing 12 errors and only mustering a .238/.305/.392 split with 8 home runs and 31 RBI. While Plouffe was showing the ability to hit for power, his defense was a liability that the team could no longer endure.

When Nishioka returned from injury, Plouffe was optioned down to AAA Rochester where he played 51 games and hit .313/.384/.635 with 15 home runs and 33 RBI (I believe that’s the textbook definition of crushing the ball).

While Plouffe’s offense was developing nicely, his defense was giving the Twins headaches. Clearly this middle infielder had talent – but if he’s making multiple errors and missing throws throughout a game, is his run production worth the runs given up?

When Terry Ryan took over as Twins GM in the 2011 offseason, he formulated a new plan for the slugging prospect – a move from the infield to the outfield. The organization seemed confident that this was the ‘fix’ for Plouffe. As a result, Plouffe played much of 2012’s spring training in the outfield, attempting to master a new defensive position.

The 2012 season began with Plouffe in a poorly conceived (in hindsight) platoon with Chris Parmelee, Ben Revere, Erik Komatsu, Clete Thomas and Ryan Doumit. Plouffe’s playing time was greatly limited in the early portion of 2012, and his offensive numbers began to show the effect of this lack of play.

In March/April of this year, Plouffe hit .121 with 1 home run, 2 RBI and 1 double in 33 plate appearances. As the early season progressed, the Twins moved Plouffe to a “super utility” role, bouncing him between the outfield, 1B, 2B, SS and 3B. While this did increase Plouffe’s plate appearances in May to 65, the lack of consistency and steady playing time was obviously affecting his bat. Plouffe hit .185 in May with 1 home run, 6 RBI and 2 doubles.

By the middle of May, it was starting to look like Plouffe was in a permanent slump, his batting average was hovering at or around .120 and he simply wasn’t making good contact with the ball. Plouffe was out of minor league options, meaning Twins were faced with a tough choice. Stick with a struggling utility player with no true position? Or, designate him for assignment and hope that he passes through waivers and is able to work on his swing in the minors?

The Twins opted to stick with Plouffe, deciding to plug him in at 3B to fill in for the demoted Danny Valencia.

Then, a funny thing happened.

Plouffe got hot. Red hot.

From May 28^th to June 12^th, Plouffe is hitting .387 with 4 home runs, 9 RBI and 3 doubles – all in 31 plate appearances. Plouffe is now the Twins everyday starting third baseman and has been bumped up in the batting order to 6^th overall.

While we can’t say for certain that Plouffe’s early season struggles weren’t due to a simple slump – it sure looks like everyday playing time and a consistent defensive position have greatly helped Plouffe’s confidence. He’s absolutely crushing the ball and has turned into another offensive threat on a team stacked with dangerous hitters like Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit.

As a bonus, Plouffe has also cut down on his errors. He’s made only 3 while playing at third base this season and seems to have a better time fielding the ball and making the necessary throws.

During last Saturday’s Fox Sports North telecast, Dick & Bert speculated as to why Plouffe has seemingly instantly become a better infielder. Ron Coomer chimed in on the discussion and pointed out that third is a more consistent position than short. Simply put the fielding position and throw from third to first is almost always the same process. In contrast, a shortstop is forced to make a multitude of different throws from different positions throughout the course of a game. Coomer speculated that the simple removal of the varied throws that Plouffe had to make at short has built Plouffe’s confidence and allowed him to become a more reliable defender.

Whatever the reason for Plouffe’s resurgence, it’s coming at a great time for the Twins. The team was left without a true third baseman after demoting the struggling Danny Valencia (who has faired no better in AAA – he’s currently hitting .214). The team was also facing offensive struggles at the bottom of their order, frequently trapping the 3,4, and 5 hitters on base. Plouffe has remedied both problems – giving the Twins their starting third baseman for the foreseeable future (until Miguel Sano is ready for the majors) and adding another dangerous bat to the lineup.

It has been a tumultuous 8 years in the Twins system for Trevor Plouffe. He’s gone from top prospect, to a solid backup, to an “average” backup to a “super utility” player and back to a full time starter. Plouffe has looked like a bust at times, and then will show flashes of why he was a first round pick.

If Plouffe can keep producing consistently at the plate and is an average defender at third, his days of bouncing around the organization will likely be over.

Twins Take Two From Cubbies

Well, two out of three isn’t so bad. The Twins couldn’t finish the sweep of the lowly Cubs yesterday, dropping an 8-2 game that was much closer than the final score indicates.

Through the first 6 innings, Francisco Liriano and Cubs ace Ryan Dempster were locked in a pitching battle. Each starter was keeping runners off of the bases – Dempster had given up only 4 hits through 5 innings and Liriano had yielded only 3. The only difference on the scoreboard was the one run the Cubs managed to push across on an Alfonso Soriano double in the 1^st inning.

The Twins certainly had chances to score, but Dempster managed to hold them in check until the wheels fell off for Liriano. In the top of the 6^th, Liriano walked Reed Johnson, gave up a double to Starlin Castro and induced a groundout from David DeJesus (scoring Johnson).

Liriano then intentionally walked Alfonso Soriano (a smart move as Soriano had been beating up the Twins all series long, and with his bad leg – he’s likely to get thrown out in any double play attempt). Liriano struck out Jeff Baker and looked to be walking out of this inning with minimal damage. While facing Joe Mather, Liriano uncorked a slider that went wide of Drew Butera, scoring Castro from third and moving Soriano up to 2^nd. Mather then drilled a double down the left field line to bring the score to 4-0 and end Liriano’s day.

With Dempster on the mound, there simply wasn’t any opportunity for the Twins to overcome the deficit. Jared Burton and Anthony Swarzak each allowed two more runs out of the pen (Brian Duensing also pitched but yielded no runs in his one and a third innings of work) and the Cubs pulled out to an 8-0 lead. The Twins tacked on two meaningless runs in the bottom of the ninth, but not even the Cubs bullpen could blow an 8 run lead in one inning.

In the end, the Twins won their 4^th straight series and are 9-3 since May 28^th – which is the best record in the majors. This team certainly has a different look and feel about them now. They’re healthy, hitting well and have found some semblance of reliable pitching. Twins fans have been cautiously optimistic, hoping this winning streak was for real but not wanting to get too involved in case in wasn’t, but I think we can start to say this Twins team is the real 2012 Twins.

The Return of Good Frankie

While his final stat line from Sunday (5.2 IP, 4 hits, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts) isn’t all that impressive on the surface – those that watched the game know that Liriano was absolutely in control of this game for all but one inning. He was starting batters with strikes and frequently worked ahead in the count. While he did have one bad inning, he had managed to hold the score to 2-0 before a wild pitch got by Drew Butera and allowed the third run to score – this may have rattled him as the next pitch was drilled down the line, allowing the fourth run to score on a double.

It wasn’t Lirinao’s best outing, but it was also a long, long way from his worst of the season. Over his past three starts, Liriano has allowed 5 earned runs (4 in Sunday’s game), 11 hits and has struck out 23 all in 17.2 innings of work. His 1-7 W/L record and 6.45 ERA would indicate a pitcher who is struggling, but his past three starts seem to indicate a turnaround in whatever was ailing him at the beginning of the season.

Despite this nice string of wins, most Twins fans don’t realistically expect the Twins to be in serious competition for a playoff spot this season. While we can certainly argue that this team is capable of playing winning baseball for the rest of the season, the pitching staff is simply not equipped to take on the Rays, Rangers, Angels, Yankees and Tigers in the American League.

That means that an “improved” Francisco Liriano means one thing and one thing only to Twins fans – trade bait. Teams like the Yankees, Indians and the Angels in the American League could use pitching – but I would wager the Twins would want to move Liriano outside of the AL. In the National League, the Nationals, Dodgers, Pirates (if they hang around), Reds, Giants and Braves are all in tight races and could be looking for a strikeout pitcher to boost their playoff push.

Liriano’s contract is expiring and it doesn’t seem like the Twins see him as part of their long term plans to fix the pitching staff. Moving him at the deadline for a AAA starter (high end) or a couple of near major league ready relievers (low end) would be ideal.

Hendriks on His Way Back

After making the starting staff out of spring training, Liam Hendriks looked to be the next Twins home grown starter. Hendriks looked strong in his first start, pitching a solid 6 innings and holding the Rangers to one earned run, but he ran into problems with his fastball location and control in his next three starts, resulting in a 9.00 ERA and a 0-2 record.

As a result, the Twins demoted Hendriks on May 6^th, telling him to work on his fastball control and mechanics. It was a disappointing blow for the young starter. As the Twins pitching staff imploded and the team promoted from AAA, Hendriks was left to play in the minors while PJ Walters, Scott Diamond and Cole De Vries all had cracks at the starting rotation.

Hendriks responded well, posting a 5-0 record and a 1.94 ERA in 7 starts at Rochester. His effort looks like it’s being rewarded with a promotion for next Saturday’s game against the Brewers.

Hendriks has a good repertoire of pitches and has shown flashes of being a very solid starter. He’s likely to be on the Twins’ staff next season, but if his minor league success is an indicator, he may become a part of the staff yet this season.

Twins Close To Signing Buxton

Reports out of Minnesota indicate that the Twins could likely sign first round pick Byron Buxton to a contract as early as Tuesday. The speedy outfielder out of Georgia is billed as a potential five tool player who has the potential to hit for great power if he adds on muscle. While it’s too early to tell if Buxton will pan out, (I used the word ‘potential’ twice in describing him – that’s all he is right now) the simple fact that the Twins are going to sign Buxton makes him a better pick that the 2^nd overall pick the Twins had in 1996 in Travis Lee, who they failed to sign. The Twins had failed to sign top 5 picks twice in their history, so the signing of Buxton is already an improvement from past drafts.

Looking Ahead

The Twins have an off day on Monday, followed by a 3 game series with the struggling Phillies. The Twins have been lucky to face a few weak offensive teams over the past few series (Oakland, Kansas City, Chicago) which has made for some fantastic starts from the Twins rotation. While Philadelphia is not currently a fearsome offensives club, they have bats in their lineup that teams need to be concerned about. This series will be a great test for the Twins pitching staff (Blackburn, Walters & Diamond). The offense will face Kendrick (2-4, 4.44 ERA), Hamels (8-3, 2.93 ERA) and Blanton (5-6, 5.40 ERA). Hamels will be a tough test, but games 1 and 3 of this series are very winnable for the Twins.

State of Affairs

The Twins are currently 24-35, and 8.5 games back of the division leading White Sox. They currently sit a half game behind Kansas City and have the chance to climb out of the central cellar with a strong series against the Phillies. While this current winning streak is nice, the team may have dug themselves too big of a hole at the beginning of the season to overcome.

Then again, no one thought the Cardinals had a chance to win the division, let alone make the playoffs last season and look what happened with them…

Just putting that out there.

Twins Rally, Drop Cubs in 10

The Twins 8-7 victory over the Cubs in 10 innings last night felt like a turning point on the 2012 season. It was an indication that this team is different from the squad that took the field just two months ago. Last night’s team overcame a multitude of errors; Revere’s misplay of Starlin Castro’s first inning triple, Darin Mastroianni letting an Ian Stewart fly ball drop out of his glove, Jamey Carroll foolishly trying to stretch a double into a triple, Ryan Doumit trying to leg a well hit single into a double – and still managed to earn a hard fought win.

The Cubs jumped out to an early 2-0 lead thanks to Starlin Castro’s lead off triple and Alfonso Soriano’s home run to dead center. The Twins rallied to tie the game at 2-2 in the 4^th, but starting pitcher PJ Walter’s couldn’t keep the game tied, giving up a leadoff triple to Stewart, followed by a base hit to Reed Johnson and then a two run homer to Castro. Even down 5-2, the game still felt within reach. The Cubs’ bullpen is one of the worst in the NL, and they kept that reputation up after taking over for Travis Wood in the 5^th. The Cubs allowed a run to the Twins in every inning except the 8^th for the rest of the ballgame.

The Twins pulled ahead 6-5 in the 7^th and looked like they were going to keep the lead. Alfonso Soriano had different plans, as he smashed a slider from Glen Perkins into orbit – hitting the third deck in left field. The Cubs pulled ahead 7-6, and it looked like the Twins just were not going to have enough to overcome their earlier mistakes.

Thankfully, they were still playing against the Cubs’ bullpen.

Trailing by 1 in the 9^th, Josh Willingham lead off the inning with what looked to be the game tying home run. Unfortunately, it lost steam about 5 feet short of the wall and dropped for a very loud single. Justin Morneau followed that with a ball that was absolutely crushed to center, resulting in a triple (that would have been a game winning 2 run homerun in almost any other park).

The Twins brought in Denard Span to pinch run for Morneau and looked to have the game wrapped up with a man on third and no out. A strikeout from Doumit and a questionable decision by Span to run home on contact during the Alexi Casilla at-bat ended any hope of a rally.

Matt Capps entered the 10^th and even though he faced 10 batters, managed to keep the Cubs off the scoreboard.

Darin Mastroianni lead off the 10^th with a walk, and Ben Revere moved him over with a sac bunt. Jamey Carroll’s soft single put runners on the corners with one out and brought Josh Willingham up to bat. The Cubs brought 5 men into the infield, intending to take away any ground balls – which seemed like an odd strategy because Willingham almost always puts the ball in the air.

Of course, Willingham sharply hit the ball on the ground – luckily between a gap in the line and third baseman Ian Stewarts’ glove, singling in Mastroianni and ending the game.

This is pure speculative conjuncture, but I don’t think the April and May 2012 Twins win this ballgame. The Cubs had this game won on more than one occasion – it would have been very easy for the Twins to fold and simply let the game get away from them. Instead, they hit well in the clutch, rallying from 3 deficits, and used their bullpen to keep the game in check despite a less than stellar starting effort from Walters.

Last night’s game felt like the intersection of two teams heading in opposite directions. The last place Twins have found their momentum and their identity and seem to be on the right track. The last place Cubs look listless and seem like their ship is taking on water fast.

MVP:

Last night’s MVP goes to Ben Revere, who was 3 for 4, with 1 walk and 2 stolen bases.

Runner Up: Darin Mastroianni, who needed a good game to show why his spot on this roster is deserved: 2 for 4, 2 RBI and 1 walk. Mastroianni was a big part of last night’s win, tying the game with a well hit triple and acting as the winning run on Willingham’s single.

One Last Thought:

How do you Cubs fans do it? I understand that you now have the “wonder kid” Epstein as President of Baseball Operations – so there’s some semblance of hope for the future – but good grief does this team look hopeless as presently constructed. No bullpen depth – a roster of aging veterans (DeJesus, Soriano, Johnson, Stewart) and backups (Barney, Clevenger, Mather) around a solid first baseman and a super star shortstop who seems to have as many brain farts as flashes of brilliance.

Your one point of salvation is a decent starting rotation – unfortunately with an offense that can go stagnant at any point in time and a bullpen held together by the likes of Asencio, Russell and Camp – that rotation is not going to earn any wins.

Hats off to the legit Cubs fans (not just the beer drinking partiers that “claim” to be Cubs fans). This would be one heck of a hard team to cheer for year after year.

That being said, I hope the Twins continue to add to your misery and sweep you back to Chicago.

No hard feelings?