The Twins find themselves at an interesting crossroads, they clearly are going to be trade deadline sellers, but the question remains – how much do you sell? Over the next few posts, I’d like to take a look at a few of the tougher calls and weigh the pros and cons of dealing that player. We’ll start this series by looking at one of the newest Twins – Josh Willingham.
Willingham’s Season: Josh Willingham is experiencing a career resurgence with the Twins in 2012. He’s hitting .279 with a .936 OPS while smashing 14 home runs and driving in 46 RBI. Willingham is built to hit at Target Field. His tendency is to pull the ball down the left field line, which is the easiest way to hit one out of the new Twins ballpark. Willingham is on pace to break career records for home runs (29 in 2011 is his high mark) RBI (98 in 2011) and batting average (.277 in 2006).
Willingham’s bat has been the winning factor in quite a few games for the Twins already this season. His walk-off homer against the A’s on May 29th helped spark the Twins early June hot streak and his solo shot against the Pirates last night proved to be the winning run. Willingham has quickly earned a place as a fan favorite and is one of the few bright spots on an otherwise underperforming team this season.
Why The Twins Should Keep Him:
See all of the above numbers. Willingham is an offensive machine who is clearly having a career year. 2011 saw Willingham put up the best numbers of his career – until 2012 rolled along. As mentioned, if Willingham keeps up his current pace, he’ll break all of his single season records this year.
Willingham is on the later half of his career, but his numbers seem to indicate a late career resurgence. While it’s uncommon for aging players to suddenly find an offensive “boom” later in their careers, it’s certainly not unheard. The most recent example is Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays. At 32, Bautista is continuing to show the power and plate discipline that only developed over the past two seasons. (Bautista hit 54 home runs when he was 30, after never hitting more than 16 prior to that).
Could Willingham be having a Jose Bautista like offensive explosion? His 2011 and early 2012 numbers seem to indicate that may be the case.
Another point in favor of keeping Willingham is his popularity with fans. Although Target Field is still a new park, the Twins front office cannot simply rely on its “newness” to sell tickets any longer. They have to put a contending team on the field to draw crowds – or at the very least have a player that fans want to see. Right now, Willingham is the most exciting offensive player the Twins have. Getting rid of him could damage their ticket sales and overall attendance for the rest of 2012.
The final point in favor of keeping Willingham is that this Twins team may not be as far away from contending as once thought. Their offensive core is solid with Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Chris Parmelee, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau all under contract for the next two to three years. Their outfield defense may be one of the toughest in the majors with Span and Revere patrolling the gaps. Their infield defense has become respectable as well. Brian Dozier is young, but he will improve and Jamey Carroll has provided a nice veteran presence this season as well.
The biggest need of this team is pitching. Luckily Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano’s contracts all come off of the books next season. In addition, there is a large amount of solid free agent pitchers entering the market this offseason. With a few free agent signings, this pitching staff could be come respectable quickly, making the Twins competitors. If that happens, the team will need Willingham’s bat to make any serious run at a title.
Why The Twins Should Trade Willingham:
In the stock market, it’s all about buying low and selling high. Major League Baseball is not much different from the stock market in that respect. If you have a valuable asset, it’s in your best interest to sell high on that asset if you cannot utilize its benefits. The Twins are not going to be a contending team in 2012 and Josh Willingham is having a career year. With the market for power bats looking like it will be competitive and aggressive, the Twins are likely never going to get as much for Josh Willingham as they would right now. They bought relatively low, signing Willingham to a very reasonable contract – now they can sell high and flip his surging power for an armful of prospects.
Josh Willingham is also 33 years old. Jose Bautista aside, it’s not very common for players to surge like this in their 30’s. The odds of Willingham continuing this production, and staying healthy, for the next two to three years are slim to none.
Yes, the Twins could be a few pitching acquisitions away from being a contending team – but what happens if the front office waits one more year to spend their free agent dollars? Just like 2012, the Twins front office could decide that the team isn’t quite ready to contend and choose to spend a minimal amount in free agency. Without a repaired pitching staff, this team is not going to contend. In which case, holding on to Willigham would be a big mistake.
What I Would Do:
My opinion on what I would do in the Twins situation is predicated on two points. First, I would need to know what my intentions for 2013 were. If I plan to let the minor leaguers develop and not spend much in free agency, I’ll move Willingham this season. If I intend to be an active and aggressive bidder for free agent pitching, I’m keeping Willingham as a cornerstone of my offense.
Secondly, I would need to know the market for power bats. If the 2012 trade deadline market is filled with aggressive teams looking for that one big bat, the return on such players is likely to be hefty. In that situation, regardless of my plans for next season, I think I would move Willingham and refill my farm system.
Conversely, if the market is oversaturated and the return looks to only be a few lower tier prospects, I’d hold onto Willingham, regardless of my plans for the next season. It’s in the best interest of the Twins to move Willingham only if they will be better after the trade – without an aggressive trade market, that wouldn’t happen.
In the end, my gut says the next month will determine a lot. If this team begins to fade like it did after the trade deadline last season, I believe nearly every player outside of a select few will have “for sale” signs around their necks. If the Twins can keep playing .500 baseball, I have a hunch the team will hold onto Willingham and take their chances on a run next season.
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