The Good: We now know the direction the Twins will be heading coming into the trade deadline. This weekend’s series with the Brewers helped confirm what many Twins fans (if they were being honest with themselves) already knew. This team, as presently constructed, is not good enough to contend for the World Series, let alone the AL Central title.
From Memorial Day through June 12th, the Twins were one of the hottest teams in baseball, riding a 10-3 streak and looking every bit a like a possible contending team. Things began to unravel in the Philadelphia
Unfortunately, the Twins dropped 2 of 3 to the Brewers and the old flaws began to show once again. Poor starting pitching, inconsistent offense – defensive errors. The upside of this recent return to Earth is that the team (and their fans) now knows which direction this team should be going come the trade deadline.
The Bad & The Ugly: The missed opportunity of this 2012 Twins team. Coming into the 2011/2012 offseason, the Twins announced that they would be trimming their payroll down to “below 100 million”. Fans bemoaned this announcement, and rightly so. This team had just lost 99 games and clearly needed some things fixed in order to right the ship. By cutting payroll, it was clear that any improvements were coming at the expense of other needs.
The offseason started fairly well for the Twins. They began rebuilding their thin bench by letting expensive veterans Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave. In Cuddyer’s place, the Twins signed Josh Willingham, a batter who is built for the dimensions of Target Field. The Twins shored up their catching depth by adding Ryan Doumit, another solid bat and a good defensive catcher to allow Joe Mauer to take some days off and play some time at 1B.
The defensive inefficiencies of last season were patched with veteran infielder Jamey Carroll. Youngsters Chris Parmelee and Brain Dozier were allowed to blossom on the major league stage, adding even more depth to the end of the bench.
As the offseason progressed, it became clear that the offense had been addressed – at the expense of pitching.
Before I go any further, let me say that I can see the reasoning behind trimming the payroll for the Twins. The team had lost 99 games the previous season and was taking a beating in attendance. They could not realistically afford to put another losing team out there at $120 million.
The problem with this logic is that you’re condemning yourself to the problem you’re trying to avoid by cutting payroll. I buy tickets to Twins games and I (and many other fans) suffered through a horrible 99 loss season. When the front office announces that this bad campaign is being followed with a spending slash, I take pause before ordering any tickets for the coming season. The cut in payroll doesn’t entice fans to come to the park, rather it makes them more selective with the spending (why spend money to watch bad baseball?)
The 2011 / 2012 offseason was mishandled by the Twins front office. Was cutting salary needed? Yes, should they have cut it so dramatically? No.
What adds insult to injury is the market was full of pitchers who would fit the Twins’ needs. Such as:
Mark Buehrle (Marlins – 4 years 58 Mil.)
Bruce Chen (Royals – 2 years 9 Mil.)
Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners – 1 year 1.5 Mil.)
Edwin Jackson (Nationals – 1 year 11 Mil.)
Paul Maholm (Cubs – 1 year 4.75 Mil.)
Joe Suanders (D-Backs – 1 year 6 Mil.)
Tsuyoshi Wada (Orioles – 2 years 8.5 Mil)
I’ll concede that Mark Buehrle’s and Edwin Jackson’s markets inflated past the point the Twins were willing to spend. Even so, the Twins thought the answer to their problems would be to sign aging Jason Marquis to a one year $3 million contract. This put the opening day payroll at or around $94 million.
Let’s play devil’s advocate here and see what the pitching staff could have looked like if the Twins played this offseason a little smarter. Instead of slashing the payroll to $94 million, let’s say we drop it to a more reasonable $105 million. The Twins then could have signed:
Bruce Chen $5 M / year
Hisashi Iwakuma $2 M / year
Paul Maholm $5 M / year
(Prices slightly inflated, as the Twins would have to have beaten out the “best offer” the players signed for).
That’s $12 million in payroll. Add that to the $91 million base ($94 less Marquis’ contract) and you have $103 million in payroll. You’ve still slashed $17 million but you’ve built a pitching staff that is much improved from what you had.
The 2012 pitching staff could have been:
- Francisco Liriano
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- Bruce Chen
- Paul Maholm
- Carl Pavano
- Nick Blackburn (likely moved to bullpen)
In the end, we’re talking about a $9 million difference in actual payroll to theoretical payroll – but larger than that is the W/L difference. If this team would have had a staff like the one listed above, there’s no way they are in last place in the AL Central. Even with 5 serviceable starters, this Twins team could have been in the race. A competing team will draw fans back to the stands – ending the ticket concerns as well.
The problem was the Tiger’s aggressive offseason spending and acquisition of Prince Fielder scared the Twins front office. They looked at where their team stood, and then at the (potential) powerhouse that Detroit
That logic is fair and reasonably savvy so long as the game plays out in reality like it does on paper. Of course, we all know that the game never plays like it does on paper.
The fact that the Twins’ front office seemingly threw in the towel on the 2012 campaign is downright ugly.
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