Morneau's Market

Speculation has been bubbling up since April regarding who the Twins would move at the trade deadline to gain better assets for 2013 and 2014. The usual names, Willingham, Span, Doumit, Liriano and Carroll are brandied about like their departures are forgone conclusions (I don’t agree, but we’ll cover that in another post). The one player that baseball experts and analysts cannot seem to agree on is Justin Morneau.

After missing the later half of 2010 due to concussion symptoms and then much of 2011 due to a wrist injury and re-aggravating those concussion symptoms, Morneau has returned with a vengeance to the Twins lineup. He is hitting .241 with 10 HR and 33 RBI in 46 games this season. Outside one brief stint on the bench due to a sore wrist, Morneau has been healthy this season as well.

With the Twins looking more and more like a team that is entering rebuilding and restocking mode, an aging Morneau is less of a valuable player, more of a valuable trade chip for the franchise.

Yesterday, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the trade market for Morneau could be hampered by other GMs’ reluctance to deal for the aging slugger after his concussion issues. An additional sticking point for Monrneau is his $23 million contract over the next two seasons. The Twins would have to be willing to eat a portion of his contract (conceivable – but unlikely given their own goals) to move him to a majority of teams.

This morning, Danny Knobler of CBSsports.com reported that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos had inquired about Morneau with the Twins – but nothing firm has developed from that discussion. Still, the rumblings in the baseball world seem to indicate that the Blue Jays are interested in acquiring Morneau if the price is right.

Trade Market:

Which teams are currently in the market for a power bat to aid their playoff push? The pool isn’t as deep as you might think.

We can cross any NL contenders off this list as Morneau’s use is commonly viewed as a DH / 1B hybrid. NL squads won’t part with high prospects for a part time 1B. (Of course this can change – but for the sake of simplicity, we’re excluding NL teams).

AL teams that are currently in the playoff hunt include:

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Indians

Detroit Tigers

NY Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Texas Rangers

LA Angels

Detroit, Texas and Los Angeles are not in need of a power bat to DH, so they’re off the list.

The Twins aren’t going to deal Morneau to someone within their division – so Chicago and Cleveland are gone too.

Baltimore and Tampa Bay are unlikely to set aside a large portion of cash for an aging DH – so they’re out as well.

That leaves New York, Boston and Toronto as the most viable suitors for Morneau. Of that group, only two are likely to still be in contention come July 31^st – let’s say for the sake of argument that those two are New York and Toronto.

New York: In all honesty, Justin Morneau to the Yankees makes the most sense for all parties involved. New York has young pitching prospects that the Twins desperately need and Morneau is the big bat the Yankee lineup is missing. Morneau hits well at Yankee Stadium, in just 12 games at the new park, Morneau has hit 7 home runs with 10 runs batted in. He holds a .478 batting average and a 1.043 slugging percentage. His bat in that Yankee lineup would dramatically improve their offense.

Toronto: The Blue Jays are the interesting wild card here. Morneau makes sense in their already talented lineup. Already set with Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus and Edwin Encarnacion, the Jays’ lineup becomes even more formidable with one more bat. In addition, Justin Morneau is Canadian, so the “butts in the seats” factor could be in play for the Jays. Simply put, a big name Canadian star sells tickets in a Canadian market. Toronto does have a deep farm system that is full of young pitching prospects – so they have the means to acquire Morneau as well.

If it comes down to a pure bidding war, you’d have to tip your hat to the Yankees. Unless the Jays are willing to offer more prospects than the Yankees, New York holds the upper hand. They can (and likely would) take on Morneau’s entire contract while Toronto may ask for some cash considerations from the Twins.

While it would be hard for Twins fans to see their beloved former MVP in pinstripes – the organization and its fans need to realize that the long term health of their franchise has to be a bigger priority than holding on to an aging 1B/DH hybrid due $23 million over the next two seasons. Justin Morneau is far from done, but he isn’t going to help the Twins rebuilding efforts by taking the field in Minnesota over the next two seasons.