Liriano Fizzles - Trade Market Update

Francisco Liriano made what was likely his last start as a Minnesota Twin last night against the White Sox in Chicago. Twins fans tuned in to see the player who looked to be their future ace, their next Johan Santana, pitch one last time – and they were quickly reminded why very few fans will be sad to see him go.

As is his trademark, Liriano was wildly inconsistent last night, lasting only 2 2/3 innings and yielding 7 runs. Liriano’s control was off and his fastball was up, if that sounds familiar that’s because Liriano’s first half of 2012 was basically described in some variation of that sentence.

It’s fitting that a player who is so wildly loved and loathed by Twins fans would find a way to ruin the last remnants of good will built up by pitching well over the past few weeks. With the trade market breaking open yesterday afternoon, the Twins looked to be in a prime position; they had a hard throwing lefthander who had been nearly unhittable for much of his last 10 starts. When Anibal Sanchez was dealt to the Tigers for Jacob Turner (the Tiger’s top pitching prospect) and Rob Brantly (the Tiger’s top catching prospect) it looked like the market was shaping up to be good for the sellers.

Depending on which expert you talk to, Sanchez is either the (soon to be) third best free agent on the market or an average pitcher who compares favorably to Liriano. The honest answer lies somewhere in between. Sanchez, while having an off year this season, is certainly a better pitcher than Liriano for the simple fact that he’s more consistent. That being said, calling him the third best free agent on the market seems to reflect more on the quality of the free agent pitching market, and less on the quality of Sanchez.

So, does Liriano’s disastrous start last night destroy his value for the Twins? It’s hard to say. Part of me believes that any club who was interested in Francisco Liriano knows that he is consistently inconsistent. He is going to have bad nights and get knocked around – his bad evening last night didn’t stun any honest scouts or talent evaluators.

The other part of me wonders if teams will be scared off after this start because it resembled his earlier starts so closely. In the first few months of the season Liriano struggle to keep the ball down and allowed a lot of runs to cross the plate in a very short number of innings. While it looked like he had fixed his mechanical issues and was ‘back’ to pitching well, it felt like the Twins (and opposing teams) were just waiting for the ‘old’ Liriano to return and knock him around the field.

Liriano’s value depends solely on how opposing scouts viewed last night – a crash back to earth, or a minor blip on the radar.

The fact remains that there is still a large demand for impact pitching and not a whole lot of arms to fill that demand. The Rangers, who were already spread fairly thin in their pitching staff with Roy Oswalt being scratched due to a back injury, announced last night that Colby Lewis would likely be done for the season due to an elbow injury.

The Rangers need pitching and the Rangers have prospects. Also in the hunt are the Angels, who have gained quite a bit of ground on Texas since starting the season off so poorly. With the injuries to the Rangers piling up, one has to believe that the Angels are in ‘strike now’ mode. Hopefully the Twins can these two clubs to bid against each other and bring in a higher yield for Liriano.

I’d look for Liriano to be traded within the next two to three days. I think he’s made his last start for the Twins and the team is looking to pull the trigger.

A Market Develops:

As I mentioned earlier, the trade market went into full swing last night as teams began exchanging current assets for future assets.

The Tigers made the biggest (talent wise) splash of the day by acquiring Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez from the Marlins for Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly & Brian Flynn. The Marlins may be viewed as the winners of this trade in the long haul, getting a top pitching prospect and catching prospect in return for an aging middle infielder and soon to be free agent pitcher, but the Tigers are the winners in the short term.

The Tigers were at the bottom of the majors in terms of second baseman OBP and batting average, Infante immediately fixes that issue by giving the team a reliable on base guy with solid defense. While he’s nowhere near the player he was 3 years ago, he is still better than any players the Tigers have rolled out at second this season.

Sanchez helps the Tigers meager pitching staff become a little more respectable. Once again, he’s not the player he was even one year ago, but he’s better than a large majority of what the Tigers have.

With the money the Tigers have in this team they are in clear “win now” mode. With an AL that’s still wide open, this trade puts the Tigers right in the driver’s seat to reach the World Series.

Big Splash

The biggest “splash” trade yesterday came from the Mariners and Yankees deal. The Mariners sent their face of their franchise, Ichiro Suzuki, to the Mariners for two mid level pitching prospects.

This trade was slightly surprising for a few reasons – the biggest being that the Mariners parted ways with Ichiro, a player who seemed destined to retire with the club he entered the big leagues with. Apparently Ichiro and the Mariners had grown apart over the years and the team, in need of a complete rebuild, and player, desiring a chance at a World Series, decided to part ways.

The bigger surprise in this is how many people thought the Yankees just bought another title by making this trade. 1) They didn’t “buy” anything here, they moved prospects for an established player. Every team does that. I’m no Yankee fan but don’t hate on them for doing what EVERY club does. 2) Don’t let the name fool you, the Yankees didn’t get THAT good of a player. While Ichiro was one of the best on base guys of the last decade, a quick glance at his numbers will tell you that this has changed. His OBP and average have dipped significantly over the past three years and he doesn’t steal bases like he used to.

By name value, it sounds like the Yankees made a big acquisition – but in reality they made a marginal upgrade to a position of need. Ichiro is good – but nowhere near as talented as Denard Span, Justin Upton or Carl Crawford are currently.

From a Twins perspective, what does this do to the value of Denard Span? It’s hard to say, but I’d have to think it hurts it slightly. The Yankees probably paid fair value for Ichiro’s ability and their need – but the lower tier prospects will do little to set the market tone. The bigger blow is the fact that the Yankees are likely out of the outfielder hunt, meaning one less big fish to engage in a bidding war for Span.

The Reds and Nationals are still on the search for a center fielder / leadoff batter and would be likely Span destinations. The Marlins were supposed to be looking for a center fielder, but their trade yesterday with the Tigers would indicate they are going to be sellers at this deadline.

In the end, I think the Ichiro trade means Span stays with the Twins. The Yankees seemed like the most likely destination and with their exit from the market, I think the return probably drops slightly for a player of Span’s caliber. The Twins are not shopping him and would only deal him if they got “a ton” in return – so don’t be surprised if he stays put for the rest of this season.

Power Bat Market: Red Hot

The market for power hitters is dry – teams are desperate to add one more big bat to their lineup, but there are not a lot of those players available on bad clubs. The ones who are available (Alfonso Soriano) are locked into horrible contracts. Josh Willingham is one of the few, if not only, power bat who is signed to a fair contract. This means he is the best commodity on the market – and I shouldn’t  have to tell you what that means to a team willing to part with that commodity.

Jackpot.

I know that Twins fans (myself included) love Willingham and his bat. He’s been a great free agent signing for the team this season and I would be fine with him remaining a Twin for the next few years.

That being said, when does the market dictate that the Twins make a move? By all accounts, Willingham should be able to bring the Twins A LOT in terms of prospects – given the current state of affairs in the minor leagues in terms of pitching (dismal) and the current state of this team (dismal) shouldn’t the Twins consider moving Willingham for the strong return he’ll bring?

I’m not a fan of trading a guy immediately after signing him but the simple fact is the Twins are flush with outfield prospects, some of which could be ready by next season. If a team comes knocking with their arms full of pitching and middle infield prospects – don’t the Twins have to change course and listen?

Span Update, The Liriano Delay & Some Bad News

Liriano’s Last Throw?

Francisco Liriano takes to the mound tonight for the Twins in what is likely his last start in a Minnesota uniform. With the July 31^st trade deadline approaching and the Twins in full ‘sell’ mode, the powerful lefthander is likely to be one of the Twins trade chips moved within the next few days.

Since returning to the starting rotation in June, Liriano has been dominant; reducing his ERA from 7.20 to 4.81. While wins have not followed this strong return (due to a lack of run support) it is clear that Liriano is ‘back’ to the quality pitcher the Twins expected him to be. With an expiring contract and a team in need of parts for rebuilding, Liriano’s increasing value means that he’s likely to be in a different uniform within the next week.

The starting pitching market seems to be waiting for Ryan Dempster to be traded from the Chicago Cubs to set appropriate values. Dempster, who leads the NL in ERA is in the final year of his contract and is widely regarded as the best pitcher available at this deadline. The Cubs have no shortage of suitors for Dempster, but recent reports have indicated that the Cubs may be asking too much for their starter, which is delaying the inevitable trade. With teams still chasing after Dempster, it’s likely that Liriano is looked at as a 2^nd or 3^rd option – until Dempster is traded (and the market ‘price’ is set) Liriano will likely stay a Twin.

I don’t anticipate the Dempster delay will prevent Liriano being traded, but I think it’s the likely cause behind the long delay in the Twins making any moves.

Hopefully Liriano can pitch well tonight and (likely) leave his career as a Twin with a ‘W’.

Twins Asking “A Ton” For Span

Following Saturday’s game, the Twitterverse was alive with rumors that Denard Span, who was pulled late in the game, had been traded to the Yankees.  Compensation wasn’t listed, but “sources” everywhere were confirming that the Twins pulled Span because he was now a Yankee.

Turns out those reports were (stunner) bogus. Span was feeling dizzy (likely from the heat – it was over 100 degrees in KC all weekend) and was pulled for health reasons. Span started Sunday’s game in center and remained in all game, alleviating any concerns that his concussion symptoms had returned.

Last week, I speculated that Span would be traded and that his value would be one to two AAA pitchers and maybe a low tier reliever. Judging from recent reports on the MLB trade market, I greatly undersold Span’s value.

With few other available options and a high demand, the center fielder market is hot right now – hot enough that Span’s value is at an all time high. With his great on base percentage, solid defense and nice contract, Span could arguably be called the best option on the market. The Twins are treating him as such – asking for multiple ‘high end’ AAA pitching prospects. One MLB source said the Twins were “asking a ton” for Span and were not actively shopping him.

Good.

I’ve said all along that Span is a perfectly fine piece to build a new team around. With Revere, Span and Willingham, the Twins have an outfield that ranks in the top of the AL. I’d still prefer to see Span moved to right field and Revere placed in center – I feel the defense would be better served this way – but even as presently laid out – this Twins outfield is a solid foundation to build a competitive team.

If you can leverage Span into a handful of pitching prospects, 2 to 3 of which can be called “major league ready” prospects – great – but there’s no sense in dealing a younger, reliable player when you don’t have to.

The Twins Are Selling…What, Exactly?

The Twins are widely regarded to be sellers at this year’s trading deadline, which is understandable given their struggles this year. The question is – what exactly are they selling?

Francisco Liriano tops the list as the Twins’ most tradeable asset – but what do the Twins have to offer after Liriano is gone?

Their two most trade worthy position players; Josh Willingham and Denard Span, are likely to stay with the team as the Twins are saying they have to be ‘wowed’ to move either player and would be fine with building around them in 2013 and 2014.

So, if Span and Willingham are off the table, who is left to sell?

Matt Capps was likely on his way out of town before landing on the DL for a 2^nd time in a month – he won’t return to August 1^st and likely won’t be traded until the August 31^st waiver deadline – if at all.

Carl Pavano’s injury is keeping him on the DL until August as well. Much like Capps, he’s likely to stay on the roster for the duration of this season.

Jared Burton and Glen Perkins are covetable assets in the bullpen, but that is the one area the Twins have confidence in. As such, they’re unlikely to deal away pieces that work in exchange for prospects.

Justin Morneau was supposedly coveted by the Blue Jays, but without Jose Bautista, the Jays look to be standing pat at the deadline, rather than buying.

Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll and Brain Dozier don’t have enough value to warrant moving them. Meanwhile Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit are all team controlled assets that the Twins won’t move.

There’s nothing of value in their starting rotation – no one will take Blackburn and his bad contract. The Twins will keep Scott Diamond and the rest of the staff is either of no value or inured.

The only other player I could see the Twins moving at the deadline would be Danny Valencia who is so far in Gardy’s doghouse that he’ll never get another fair shot at the Twins starting roster anyway.   

In all reality, the Twins missed their window to be big sellers by one year. Last season they had Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young and Jim Thome all in the last years of their contacts. Rather than selling, the Twins hung on the Kubel, Cuddyer and Nathan, letting them walk in the offseason, and traded Young and Thome after the deadline, receiving little in the way of a return.

It may be a tough pill to swallow, but it looks like the Twins inability to pull the trigger on any trades last season is going to haunt them for the foreseeable future.

Trade Chips: Span, Liriano, Willingham

With July 31^st a mere 11 days away, the MLB trade market is about to be red hot. The Minnesota Twins, who sit at the bottom of the AL Central for the 2^nd straight year, are likely to be sellers in some capacity. Just who do the Twins have to offer and what can the team expect in return? Let’s take a look at some prospects:

Francisco Liriano (P)

3-9, 4.81 ERA, 107 SO, 97.1 IP

Liriano’s early season struggles and second half surge have been well documented on this blog – to boil it down to a simple sentence, Francisco Liriano was really bad, now he’s really good.

Liriano’s turnaround has made him the Twins’ most valuable trade chip. Had you told most fans that in May, you may have been deemed a lunatic. But, it’s true – Liriano has been the Twins’ best trade chip over the past few weeks. Whatever reason Liriano and the Twins coaching staff found for his early season woes seems to have been patched and the new-and-improved Liriano has pitched much like the ace the Twins expected him to be.

Why Trade Him?

Consistency has to be on the front of the Twins’ minds. Liriano has looked absolutely dominate at times through is career with Minnesota (2006 – 12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 SO), But has struggled to routinely put up those strong numbers since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2007.

Also of concern is the cost to keep Liriano. Early reports have Liriano’s cost for 2013 at or around $14 million – a figure that the Twins are likely to shy away from as they enter full rebuilding mode.

Who’s Interested: The Twins have no shortage of suitors for their lefty. The Angels, Nationals, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Braves have all been linked to having an interesting in Liriano.

What’s The Return: With each solid start, the return for Liriano is getting stronger and stronger. It’s true that Liriano will essentially be a one year rental so teams that are fading from the playoff race like the Blue Jays or on the fringe such as the Mets and Braves may be less likely to part with top prospect for a player they could lose next season. His expiring contract hurts his value slightly, but with competitive teams always looking for an extra starter, there certainly is a chance for a big return for Franky.

Chances He’ll Be Traded: 99% I don’t believe the Twins want to resign him and they certainly don’t want to let him walk without anything in return. They’ll get a deal done.

Landing Spot: With the Angels in a tight race with the Rangers, they’re becoming aggressive buyers which make them ideal candidates to trade with the Twins. Recent reports have the Angles willing to part with outfielder Peter Bourjos – who has become a luxury with the strong play of Mike Trout. In addition, the Angels have been offering starter Garrett Richards in some trades. While Bourjos and Richards may be a big return for Liriano alone, I think the Twins could easily get Bourjos and an AAA pitching prospect.

Denard Span (CF)

.287 BA, .744 OPS

Denard Span has been one of the biggest success stories in regards to Twins’ draft picks. Span is having his best season since 2009 and is a perfect table setter for the Twins offense. His defense is also some of the best in the majors.

Span is signed to a team friendly contract through the next two seasons and is only 28 years old. One would assume that Span is someone the Twins would want to keep to help anchor a rebuild. There is certainly nothing wrong with the Twins keeping Span for the next two seasons and moving him at the end of his current contract – but recent events and current opportunities could dictate otherwise.

Why Trade Him?

Ben Revere has emerged as the next future star of the Twins’ outfield. Revere is currently playing out of position in right field, a fact evidenced by opposing team’s ability to turn routine base hits into more as they challenge Revere’s weak throwing arm.

Revere has more than compensated for his below average arm with his above average range. He’s made some absolutely phenomenal catches in the outfield this season and is able to cover more ground in right field than almost any outfielder in the majors today.

That range and weak arm dictate that Revere play centerfield, where arm strength isn’t as high of a priority. The problem is that center field is Denard Span’s territory and there’s no indication that he’s willing to move.

The easy fix is for the Twins to push Span to right and allow Revere to become the everyday starter in center – if Span doesn’t want to do that, however, the Twins could pursue the other option and trade him by the deadline.

Who’s Interested: The Nationals, who tried but failed to acquire Span last season are supposedly still in the hunt for a leadoff center fielder. The Reds are also seriously interested in Span as well as the Miami Marlins, who have been linked to Span prior to their reported interest in Red Sox OF Carl Crawford.

 The Return: Players like Span don’t grow on trees, especially ones that have a team friendly contract. The Twins should be able to get two to three quality pitching prospects in return for a player of Span’s caliber.

Chances He’ll Be Traded: I would have said 40% earlier this week – but with the developments involving Liriano (I’ll expand on that later) I’m thinking the Twins are more likely to turn Span into prospects to help build their rotation for 2013 and 2014. I’d put the odds at 70% now.

Landing Spot: The Reds are in a tight race with the Pirates for the NL Central and could use a leadoff hitter and center fielder. They also have a deeper farm system than the Nationals, meaning they can offer better prospects to the Twins.

The Angels shopping Peter Bourjos has made the trade scenarios for both Span and Liriano much more interesting. If the reports are true (and they would seem to be – LA has a plethora of OF options and needs starting pitching) the Twins should try to pull off the following set of trades.

Trade: Francisco Liriano & Alex Burnett/Jeff Gray/Brain Duensing (pick one) to the Los Angeles Angels

For: Peter Bourjos and 2 pitching prospects (1 AAA, 1 A)

Trade: Denard Span to the Cincinatti Reds

For: 3 Pitching prospects (2 AAA, 1 AA)

OR

Trade: Francisco Liriano & Glen Perkins to the Los Angeles Angels

For: Peter Bourjos, Garrett Richards & 1 AAA pitching prospect

Trade: Denard Span to the Cincinatti Reds

For: 3 Pitching prospects (2 AAA, 1 AA)

The Angels are desperately looking for bullpen help as well and if tossing in a solid ‘pen arm like Perkins gets the Angels to include Richards and another high quality prospect in the deal, the Twins should jump on the opportunity.

This works for the Twins in many ways. First, it allows Ben Revere to play his natural CF. Secondly, it turns one of their best current starters into 3 potential rotation arms for 2013 / 2014.

The RF hole is filled with Bourjos, who has been the odd man out in LA due to Mike Trout. Bourjos is young – only 24 years old – and would be a great piece to a rebuilding effort.

Garrett Richards could step into the Twins rotation immediately and would work well alongside Scott Diamond as a young foundation for the Twins to build a rotation with.  

Josh Willingham

.276 BA, 23 HR, .964 OPS

Willingham has been the definition of “slam dunk free agent signing” with the Twins this year. He’s managed to stay relatively healthy – which was the largest cause for concern when it came to signing him last offseason. Willingham is built to hit at Target Field, his power and ability to pull the ball to LF has given him the team lead in home runs and has quickly made him a fan favorite.

Why Trade Him?

In all fairness, the Twins don’t want to. While they’re not telling teams that Willingham is off limits, they’re not actively shopping him either. Reports are that the Twins would only move Willingham in a “one-sided” deal. (I.E. 4-5 AAA prospects for Willingham). Realitically, that’s not happening.

Chances He’ll Be Traded: 1% Because you should never speak in absolutes, someone could go crazy and tell the Twins 3 AAA starters, 1 reliever and a major league ready second baseman for Willingham – I’ll give this trade a slight chance at life.

 Dead Chips (Guys who SHOULD have been dealt by the deadline but will not be)

Matt Capps: On the DL (again) until August 1^st. He had a market developing but injuries derailed that rather quickly. The Twins could move him before the August 30^th waiver deadline, but the return is likely to be much less than it would have been a month ago.

Carl Pavano: Pavano is also on the DL until August and hasn’t pitched since June. He could have been shipped for a mid level prospect, instead he’ll likely walk in free agency.

Wild Cards (Guys who COULD be traded by the deadline – these are longshots)

Jamey Carroll / Alexi Casilla: The Twins could throw either of them into any deal to ‘sweeten the pot’ a little and earn another prospect in the trade. They’re not quite good enough to earn prospects on their own, but they have potential as deal “fluff”.

Jared Burton: Burton has been strong for the Twins out of the ‘pen and teams are always looking for good relievers. The Twins likely want to keep Burton as he’s been a pleasant surprise, but any offer could be considered – especially if a team gets desperate.

Justin Morneau: With Jose Bautista going down, the Blue Jays likely will bow out of “buying” at the deadline. That means that the team who most wanted Morneau will no longer be a buyer. Big contract, injury history, struggling with lefties – Justin likely won’t earn the return the Twins would need to move him.

Trevor Plouffe: Plouffe has come on strong since early June, currently in the midst of a 17 game hit streak and 2^nd on the team in home runs. His defense at third has been respectable, making him an option for a team with a hole at third. The Twins likely want to keep Plouffe, who is finally turning into a solid player – but you can’t rule out a solid offer swaying the team’s stance.

Nick Blackburn: If the Twins got an offer – any offer – they’d probably move him. That being said, I don’t think any GM in their right mind would offer the Twins anything more than a bag of balls for Blackburn at this point in time.

Prediction (As of 7/20)

The Twins move Liriano & Alex Burnett to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, Garrett Richards and 1 AAA pitching prospect.

Denard Span is traded to the Reds for 2 AAA pitching prospects and an infield prospect.

Alexi Casilla & Glen Perkins are traded to the Giants for 2 AA pitching prospects.

Matt Capps is traded in August for 2 AA or 1 AAA pitching prospect

Carl Pavano is traded in August for a PTBNL, which turns into a middle infield prospect

Jamey Carroll is traded for a PTBNL, which turns into a middle relief prospect

By my count these (some long-shot) trades would give the Twins:

1 Starting OF

1 Starting P

3-4 AAA pitching prospects

2-4 AA pitching prospects

2 infield prospects

1 middle relief prospect

That would be one heck of a restock for this organization.

Mid Season Grades: Pitching

I’m not a parent, but I imagine that parents of struggling students fear days like today. Report card day. You have a feeling of what you’re going to see – and you don’t really want to see it – but deep down you know you have to.

Yesterday, we gave out the mid-term grades for the Twins offense and, on a whole, found the offense to be doing a fairly good job. 9 players received a grade of C or above, which is a respectable average.

However, this team is in last place in a bad division and coming off of a few bad losses in a row. We know that this losing is coming from somewhere – if it’s not the offense, then it has to be the pitching.

Like I said, we all know what’s coming, but that doesn’t make the parent-teacher sit down any easier. Enough holding back, let’s get this over with!

The Pitching:

(Just like yesterday we’ll look at the opening day rotation along with mid season additions)

Starters:

Carl Pavano

Season Stats: 2-5 / 6.00 ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 33 K / 8 BB / 63 IP

Pavano came into 2012 with the expectation of being the Twins workhorse. He was slated to be the opening day starter and the team needed him to be the anchor for a pitching staff that was largely unchanged from the previous season. Pavano didn’t live up to that expectation, struggling through his first few starts of the season. By mid May, it looked like Pavano had found the error in his approach, and he put together consecutive solid starts. An injury to Pavano’s shoulder stopped any momentum, however, forcing the starter to the disabled list at the beginning of June. Pavano is still on the DL and has yet to be given a date for his return.

Mid-Season Grade: D

Franciso Liriano

Season Stats: 3-7 / 5.08 ERA / 1.49 WHIP / 82 K / 50 BB / 83.1 IP

Coming out of spring training, Franciso Liriano looked set to have a dominant year. The Twins one-time ace was absolutely unhittable in the spring, and looked every bit the ace of the staff. That spring momentum didn’t translate, however, and Liriano started 2012 disastrously, horribly, awful. He was 0-5 with an ERA above 11 when the Twins demoted him to the bullpen (where he continued to struggle). Injuries to other starters and flat out desperation lead to Liriano’s return to the starting staff in June. This time, Liriano was completely different, dropping his ERA nearly 6 points and picking up 3 wins in 6 starts since returning to the rotation. This Liriano is the one the Twins expected to have all year – and now his strong start makes him a likely trade chip for the team. It’s unfortunate that horrendous start will probably cost the team a higher quality prospect due to other teams fearing Liriano’s inconsistency.  

Mid-Season Grade: C-

Liam Hendriks

Season Stats: 0-5 / 7.04 ERA / 1.75 WHIP / 23 K / 10 BB / 38.1 IP

Hendriks has had a rough 2012. He missed his first start of the season in Baltimore due to food poisoning and couldn’t earn a win despite completely shutting down the powerful Rangers offense in his first start of the year. With each subsequent start, Hendriks’ numbers declined.

Vs: Rangers	No Decision	6.0 IP	7 Hits	1 Earned Run
Vs: Rays	No Decision	5.2 IP	5 Hits	4 Earned Runs
Vs: Red Sox	Loss	4.0 IP	9 Hits	7 Earned Runs
Vs: Angels	Loss	2.1 IP	9 Hits	6 Earned Runs

Following the LA series, it was clear that Hendriks needed some more seasoning in AAA. The team optioned Hendriks back to Rochester, where he performed well in 5 starts. This strong performance earned Hendriks another promotion in June where he put up the following starts:

Vs: Brewers	Loss	5.0 IP	8 Hits	2 Earned Runs
Vs: Pirates	Loss	5.0 IP	8 Hits	3 Earned Runs
Vs: White Sox	Loss	6.1 IP	5 Hits	3 Earned Runs
Vs: Tigers	No Decision	4.0 IP	6 Hits	4 Earned Runs

While his June numbers are certainly better than his April / May numbers, they’re still not exactly where the Twins want him to be. Hendriks shows flashes of why he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the Twins’ system, but he’s clearly not quite ready for the show just yet.

Mid-Season Grade: D-

Nick Blackburn

Season Stats: 4-5 / 8.10 ERA / 1.77 WHIP / 30 K / 22 BB / 63.1 IP

Something is clearly wrong with Nick Blackburn. From June of 2011 through today, Blackburn’s ERA is at or around 8.00. Prior to this, Blackburn’s career ERA was in the mid to high 3.00 range. For the past year, Blackburn has been incredibly hittable and unreliable as a starter. For every solid start (5.0 IP, 2 ER vs Kansas City on 6/6) there’s two horrendous starts (2.0 IP, 6 ER vs Detroit on 5/16) or (5.0 IP, 6 ER vs Chicago on 6/27). The Twins finally decided enough was enough after the calendar turned to July and demoted Blackburn to AAA. Here’s hoping he can find and fix whatever problem has popped up over the past year, because the Twins cannot afford to have one of their starters be this bad.

Mid-Season Grade: F

Matt Capps

Season Stats: 1-4 / 14 Saves / 3.42 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / 16 K / 4 BB / 26.1 IP

Matt Capps was one of the most controversial signings of the Twins 2012 offseason. Fans were done with the closer following the poor campaign in 2011, in which Capps seemingly blew every save opportunity he had (if you’d ask a fan) and was ANYTHING but a shutdown closer. So far in 2012, Capps has been much improved. Converting on a majority of his save chances and limiting the bad losses to a small handful (he’s still had them, just not as much). He was looking to be one of the more valuable trade prospects for the Twins – then he injured his shoulder. Capps is set to return to the team either during the Oakland series or the week after. If he’s healthy, look for the Twins to ship him out of town for prospects (that value helps his grade).

Mid-Season Grade: B-

Glen Perkins

Season Stats: 1-4 / 4 Saves / 3.11 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 44 K / 13 BB / 37.2 IP

I’ll preface this section by saying that I like Glen Perkins and I think he has the potential to be the Twins closer for the coming seasons. His slider is wicked, he earns strikeouts in big spots and he has the ability to mow down any batter he’s facing. That being said – I’m not in love with Perkins this season. While his stats are not bad – those fans that have watched every game this season can tell you that Perkins isn’t quite “right” this year. He’s been knocked around the field in his past few games – pitching so poorly against the Rangers that he blew a 3-0 9^th inning lead in an eventual Twins loss. Perkins clearly has the stuff to be a dominant closer and the Twins have a good player on the roster in Perkins – but his rough patch over the past month has dropped his grade slightly.

Mid-Season Grade: B-

Brian Duensing

Season Stats: 1-5 / 4.11 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 26 K / 12 BB / 46 IP

Duensing has been moved to the starting rotation due to need (desperation) but he began the season as a long reliever. His stats don’t necessarily shine, but Duensing has been exactly what the Twins have needed in long relief. Ron Gardenhire has routinely called on Duensing to bail out a bad starting pitcher and Duensing has typically deliver 2-3 innings of solid relief. His stats won’t reflect it, but Duensing has been reliable this season – which is very important for any bullpen.

Mid-Season Grade: C+

Jared Burton
Season Stats: 1-0 / 2 Saves / 2.55 ERA / .910 WHIP / 34 K / 8 BB / 35.1 IP

Burton has been one of the pleasant surprises for the Twins bullpen this season. The Twins signed him as a free agent after the Reds allowed him to walk following 2011. The big concern with Burton has been his injury history. Thankfully this season that hasn’t been an issue. The Twins have been careful to use Burton sparingly as to not aggravate any past injuries, but when Burton has pitched he has been nearly impossible to hit. If he can continue to stay healthy and post these dominant numbers the Twins back end of the ‘pen (with Perkins and Burton) will be one of the best in the majors.

Mid-Season Grade: A-

Matt Maloney

Maloney struggled in relief for the Twins in May, posting an ERA of 8.18 in only 9 games. The Twins designated Maloney for assignment in May and he cleared waivers and is currently on the Rochester AAA roster.

Mid-Season Grade: F

Alex Burnett

Season Stats: 2-2 / 2.49 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 19 K / 15 BB / 43.1 IP

Burnett was one of the few holdovers from last season’s bullpen and it felt as if his spot was retained due to a lack of other options – not so much merit. 2012, however, has been good for Burnett. He’s been solid in middle relief for the bullpen, limiting his base runners and frequently working his way out of jams that he inherits from other pitchers. His numbers aren’t spectacular and he’ll likely never make an All-Star team, but Burnett has been reliable this season and reliable is good.

Mid-Season Grade: B-

Jeff Gray

Season Stats: 5-0 / 3.93 ERA / 1.45 WHIP / 18 K / 16 BB / 36.2 IP

Jeff Gray is 2^nd on the team in wins. Let that sink in a little. That tells you how badly this season has gone as far as starting pitching is concerned. A few of Gray’s wins have come after he has throw 1 to 5 pitches, so his win total is slightly inflated due to the absurdity of the win stat. That being said, you can’t argue with Gray’s results. He comes in tied or tight games, mops up the mess and (usually) keeps the team in the game. He had a shaky start to 2012 and at one point looked like he was due to be DFA’d – but he’s improved since that time and worked his way up to being an average arm out of the ‘pen.

Mid-Season Grade: C

Anthony Swarzak

Season Stats: 2-4 / 4.31 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 36 K / 19 BB / 62.2 IP

Swarzak has bounced between starter and reliever this season, with his starts being largely disastrous and his relief efforts being solid. I’m not sure science will ever be able to figure out why Swarzak can enter a game in the 5^th inning and pitch lights out for 3 to 4 innings, but if he starts a game he’ll simply get knocked around the field. Chalk it up to a different mental approach I suppose. Either way, out of the pen Swarzak has been reliable and works well as a mop up man, cleaning up the starters’ messes.

Mid-Season Grade: C+

In-Season Additions:

Scott Diamond

Season Stats: 7-3 / 2.62 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 45 K / 12 BB / 79 IP

Scott Diamond is the best pitcher on the Twins roster this season and it’s not even a close contest. Since being called up in May, Diamond has been dominate. His ground ball rate has improved to around 65% up from 44% from 2011. Diamond is a prototypical pitch-to-contact Twins pitcher, but with his control and ability to work the strike zone, he’s the only pitch-to-contact guy in the Twins rotation that is having success this season.

Mid-Season Grade: A+

PJ Walters

Season Stats: 2-2 / 5.40 ERA / 1.57 WHIP / 23 K / 14 BB / 36.2 IP

Walters was promoted following the success of Scott Diamond and looked like he too was going to be the next AAA prospect to shine in a starting role with the Twins. In his first three starts, Walters put up solid numbers:

Vs: Blue Jays	Loss	6.0 IP	6 Hits	2 Earned Runs
Vs: Tigers	Win	6.1 IP	4 Hits	3 Earned Runs
Vs: White Sox	Win	9.0 IP	4 Hits	2 Earned Runs

Teams started to figure Walters out, however, and his next 3 starts were not as solid.

Vs: Tigers	No Decision	6.0 IP	7 Hits	2 Earned Runs
Vs: Indians	No Decision	4.1 IP	8 Hits	4 Earned Runs
Vs: Cubs	No Decision	4.0 IP	8 Hits	5 Earned Runs

In his June 13^th start against the Phillies, Walters put up one of the worst stat lines of the year:

Vs: Phillies

Loss

0.0 IP

4 Hits

4 Earned Runs

Walters was struggling with shoulder inflammation and the Phillies took advantage. The Twins shut Walters down on June 13^th and he hasn’t returned to the rotation yet. It will be interesting to see which Walters is the ‘real’ Walters. It could be that he was struggling with shoulder soreness as far back as the games against the Cubs and Indians, but the issue was unbearable until he faced off against the Phillies. If Walters can return to the rotation and look anything like the pitcher who put up the numbers in his first three starts, he’ll instantly be the 2^nd best starter on the team. Right now, the jury is still out, and since we don’t give incompletes, the mid-season grade isn’t great.

Mid-Season Grade: D+

Cole De Vries

Season Stats: 2-1 / 3.00 ERA / 1.10 WHIP / 21 K / 8 BB / 30 IP

Cole De Vries gives me heartburn. He’s largely been a solid pitcher, and since being called up in May, he’s been a better starter than Nick Blackburn or Carl Pavano. That being said, De Vries is the type of pitcher that walks the line. He’ll have a good game going but if you leave him in for one inning too long that good game gets turned into a bad game; quickly. De Vries first 3 starts were unimpressive and the Twins returned him to AAA in early June. He was recalled in late June to fill in for Liam Hendriks and has put together two good starts since that time. He earned his 2^nd career win against the Royals on June 30^th and outpitched Roy Oswalt on July 8^th. If he can keep this up, he’ll likely get to stick with the club for the remainder of 2012. Right now, 2 good starts are not enough to bring up his average, however.

Mid-Season Grade: C-

While others have been called up (Casey Fien, Kyle Waldrop, Tyler Robertson, Sam Deduno) they don’t have enough innings to fairly grade.

That means the ‘report card’ totals for the Twins pitching are:

A: 2

B: 3

C: 5

D: 3

F: 2

On the surface, that looks like a pitching staff that is “average” at best – but this staff only wishes it could be called “average”. So, where’s the disparity? Look at the starter’s numbers (pre-promotions)

A: 0

B: 0

C: 1

D: 2

F: 1

The one C is Francisco Liriano’s and that grade has only been earned due to his past 5 starts. In the early portion of the season he was obviously an F. When your rotation for the first month of the season is composed of 2 D’s and 3 F’s – you’re going to struggle to win games.

So, with an average offense and a “needs improvement” pitching staff it’s not hard to see why the Twins are in the bottom tiers of the league. The season resumes on July 13^th with a series at Target Field against the A’s. That game has a chance to be Francisco Liriano’s last start in a Twins uniform and it could be one of the last times this team takes the field as presently constructed. The Twins didn’t sell in 2011 and they’re paying the price in 2012. Look for the Twins to be much more active come this year’s trade deadline.