I’m not a parent, but I imagine that parents of struggling students fear days like today. Report card day. You have a feeling of what you’re going to see – and you don’t really want to see it – but deep down you know you have to.
Yesterday, we gave out the mid-term grades for the Twins offense and, on a whole, found the offense to be doing a fairly good job. 9 players received a grade of C or above, which is a respectable average.
However, this team is in last place in a bad division and coming off of a few bad losses in a row. We know that this losing is coming from somewhere – if it’s not the offense, then it has to be the pitching.
Like I said, we all know what’s coming, but that doesn’t make the parent-teacher sit down any easier. Enough holding back, let’s get this over with!
The Pitching:
(Just like yesterday we’ll look at the opening day rotation along with mid season additions)
Starters:
Carl Pavano
Season Stats: 2-5 / 6.00 ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 33 K / 8 BB / 63 IP
Pavano came into 2012 with the expectation of being the Twins workhorse. He was slated to be the opening day starter and the team needed him to be the anchor for a pitching staff that was largely unchanged from the previous season. Pavano didn’t live up to that expectation, struggling through his first few starts of the season. By mid May, it looked like Pavano had found the error in his approach, and he put together consecutive solid starts. An injury to Pavano’s shoulder stopped any momentum, however, forcing the starter to the disabled list at the beginning of June. Pavano is still on the DL and has yet to be given a date for his return.
Mid-Season Grade: D
Franciso Liriano
Season Stats: 3-7 / 5.08 ERA / 1.49 WHIP / 82 K / 50 BB / 83.1 IP
Coming out of spring training, Franciso Liriano looked set to have a dominant year. The Twins one-time ace was absolutely unhittable in the spring, and looked every bit the ace of the staff. That spring momentum didn’t translate, however, and Liriano started 2012 disastrously, horribly, awful. He was 0-5 with an ERA above 11 when the Twins demoted him to the bullpen (where he continued to struggle). Injuries to other starters and flat out desperation lead to Liriano’s return to the starting staff in June. This time, Liriano was completely different, dropping his ERA nearly 6 points and picking up 3 wins in 6 starts since returning to the rotation. This Liriano is the one the Twins expected to have all year – and now his strong start makes him a likely trade chip for the team. It’s unfortunate that horrendous start will probably cost the team a higher quality prospect due to other teams fearing Liriano’s inconsistency.
Mid-Season Grade: C-
Liam Hendriks
Season Stats: 0-5 / 7.04 ERA / 1.75 WHIP / 23 K / 10 BB / 38.1 IP
Hendriks has had a rough 2012. He missed his first start of the season in Baltimore
Vs: Rangers
|
No Decision
|
6.0 IP
|
7 Hits
|
1 Earned Run
|
Vs: Rays
|
No Decision
|
5.2 IP
|
5 Hits
|
4 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Red Sox
|
Loss
|
4.0 IP
|
9 Hits
|
7 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Angels
|
Loss
|
2.1 IP
|
9 Hits
|
6 Earned Runs
|
Following the LA series, it was clear that Hendriks needed some more seasoning in AAA. The team optioned Hendriks back to Rochester
Vs: Brewers
|
Loss
|
5.0 IP
|
8 Hits
|
2 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Pirates
|
Loss
|
5.0 IP
|
8 Hits
|
3 Earned Runs
|
Vs: White Sox
|
Loss
|
6.1 IP
|
5 Hits
|
3 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Tigers
|
No Decision
|
4.0 IP
|
6 Hits
|
4 Earned Runs
|
While his June numbers are certainly better than his April / May numbers, they’re still not exactly where the Twins want him to be. Hendriks shows flashes of why he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the Twins’ system, but he’s clearly not quite ready for the show just yet.
Mid-Season Grade: D-
Nick Blackburn
Season Stats: 4-5 / 8.10 ERA / 1.77 WHIP / 30 K / 22 BB / 63.1 IP
Something is clearly wrong with Nick Blackburn. From June of 2011 through today, Blackburn ’s ERA is at or around 8.00. Prior to this, Blackburn ’s career ERA was in the mid to high 3.00 range. For the past year, Blackburn has been incredibly hittable and unreliable as a starter. For every solid start (5.0 IP, 2 ER vs Kansas City on 6/6) there’s two horrendous starts (2.0 IP, 6 ER vs Detroit on 5/16) or (5.0 IP, 6 ER vs Chicago Blackburn to AAA. Here’s hoping he can find and fix whatever problem has popped up over the past year, because the Twins cannot afford to have one of their starters be this bad.
Mid-Season Grade: F
Matt Capps
Season Stats: 1-4 / 14 Saves / 3.42 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / 16 K / 4 BB / 26.1 IP
Matt Capps was one of the most controversial signings of the Twins 2012 offseason. Fans were done with the closer following the poor campaign in 2011, in which Capps seemingly blew every save opportunity he had (if you’d ask a fan) and was ANYTHING but a shutdown closer. So far in 2012, Capps has been much improved. Converting on a majority of his save chances and limiting the bad losses to a small handful (he’s still had them, just not as much). He was looking to be one of the more valuable trade prospects for the Twins – then he injured his shoulder. Capps is set to return to the team either during the Oakland
Mid-Season Grade: B-
Glen Perkins
Season Stats: 1-4 / 4 Saves / 3.11 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / 44 K / 13 BB / 37.2 IP
I’ll preface this section by saying that I like Glen Perkins and I think he has the potential to be the Twins closer for the coming seasons. His slider is wicked, he earns strikeouts in big spots and he has the ability to mow down any batter he’s facing. That being said – I’m not in love with Perkins this season. While his stats are not bad – those fans that have watched every game this season can tell you that Perkins isn’t quite “right” this year. He’s been knocked around the field in his past few games – pitching so poorly against the Rangers that he blew a 3-0 9th inning lead in an eventual Twins loss. Perkins clearly has the stuff to be a dominant closer and the Twins have a good player on the roster in Perkins – but his rough patch over the past month has dropped his grade slightly.
Mid-Season Grade: B-
Brian Duensing
Season Stats: 1-5 / 4.11 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 26 K / 12 BB / 46 IP
Duensing has been moved to the starting rotation due to need (desperation) but he began the season as a long reliever. His stats don’t necessarily shine, but Duensing has been exactly what the Twins have needed in long relief. Ron Gardenhire has routinely called on Duensing to bail out a bad starting pitcher and Duensing has typically deliver 2-3 innings of solid relief. His stats won’t reflect it, but Duensing has been reliable this season – which is very important for any bullpen.
Mid-Season Grade: C+
Jared Burton
Season Stats: 1-0 / 2 Saves / 2.55 ERA / .910 WHIP / 34 K / 8 BB / 35.1 IP
Season Stats: 1-0 / 2 Saves / 2.55 ERA / .910 WHIP / 34 K / 8 BB / 35.1 IP
Mid-Season Grade: A-
Matt Maloney
Maloney struggled in relief for the Twins in May, posting an ERA of 8.18 in only 9 games. The Twins designated Maloney for assignment in May and he cleared waivers and is currently on the Rochester AAA roster.
Mid-Season Grade: F
Alex Burnett
Season Stats: 2-2 / 2.49 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 19 K / 15 BB / 43.1 IP
Burnett was one of the few holdovers from last season’s bullpen and it felt as if his spot was retained due to a lack of other options – not so much merit. 2012, however, has been good for Burnett. He’s been solid in middle relief for the bullpen, limiting his base runners and frequently working his way out of jams that he inherits from other pitchers. His numbers aren’t spectacular and he’ll likely never make an All-Star team, but Burnett has been reliable this season and reliable is good.
Mid-Season Grade: B-
Jeff Gray
Season Stats: 5-0 / 3.93 ERA / 1.45 WHIP / 18 K / 16 BB / 36.2 IP
Jeff Gray is 2nd on the team in wins. Let that sink in a little. That tells you how badly this season has gone as far as starting pitching is concerned. A few of Gray’s wins have come after he has throw 1 to 5 pitches, so his win total is slightly inflated due to the absurdity of the win stat. That being said, you can’t argue with Gray’s results. He comes in tied or tight games, mops up the mess and (usually) keeps the team in the game. He had a shaky start to 2012 and at one point looked like he was due to be DFA’d – but he’s improved since that time and worked his way up to being an average arm out of the ‘pen.
Mid-Season Grade: C
Anthony Swarzak
Season Stats: 2-4 / 4.31 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 36 K / 19 BB / 62.2 IP
Swarzak has bounced between starter and reliever this season, with his starts being largely disastrous and his relief efforts being solid. I’m not sure science will ever be able to figure out why Swarzak can enter a game in the 5th inning and pitch lights out for 3 to 4 innings, but if he starts a game he’ll simply get knocked around the field. Chalk it up to a different mental approach I suppose. Either way, out of the pen Swarzak has been reliable and works well as a mop up man, cleaning up the starters’ messes.
Mid-Season Grade: C+
In-Season Additions:
Scott Diamond
Season Stats: 7-3 / 2.62 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 45 K / 12 BB / 79 IP
Scott Diamond is the best pitcher on the Twins roster this season and it’s not even a close contest. Since being called up in May, Diamond has been dominate. His ground ball rate has improved to around 65% up from 44% from 2011. Diamond is a prototypical pitch-to-contact Twins pitcher, but with his control and ability to work the strike zone, he’s the only pitch-to-contact guy in the Twins rotation that is having success this season.
Mid-Season Grade: A+
PJ Walters
Season Stats: 2-2 / 5.40 ERA / 1.57 WHIP / 23 K / 14 BB / 36.2 IP
Walters was promoted following the success of Scott Diamond and looked like he too was going to be the next AAA prospect to shine in a starting role with the Twins. In his first three starts, Walters put up solid numbers:
Vs: Blue Jays
|
Loss
|
6.0 IP
|
6 Hits
|
2 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Tigers
|
Win
|
6.1 IP
|
4 Hits
|
3 Earned Runs
|
Vs: White Sox
|
Win
|
9.0 IP
|
4 Hits
|
2 Earned Runs
|
Teams started to figure Walters out, however, and his next 3 starts were not as solid.
Vs: Tigers
|
No Decision
|
6.0 IP
|
7 Hits
|
2 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Indians
|
No Decision
|
4.1 IP
|
8 Hits
|
4 Earned Runs
|
Vs: Cubs
|
No Decision
|
4.0 IP
|
8 Hits
|
5 Earned Runs
|
In his June 13th start against the Phillies, Walters put up one of the worst stat lines of the year:
Vs: Phillies
|
Loss
|
0.0 IP
|
4 Hits
|
4 Earned Runs
|
Walters was struggling with shoulder inflammation and the Phillies took advantage. The Twins shut Walters down on June 13th and he hasn’t returned to the rotation yet. It will be interesting to see which Walters is the ‘real’ Walters. It could be that he was struggling with shoulder soreness as far back as the games against the Cubs and Indians, but the issue was unbearable until he faced off against the Phillies. If Walters can return to the rotation and look anything like the pitcher who put up the numbers in his first three starts, he’ll instantly be the 2nd best starter on the team. Right now, the jury is still out, and since we don’t give incompletes, the mid-season grade isn’t great.
Mid-Season Grade: D+
Cole De Vries
Season Stats: 2-1 / 3.00 ERA / 1.10 WHIP / 21 K / 8 BB / 30 IP
Cole De Vries gives me heartburn. He’s largely been a solid pitcher, and since being called up in May, he’s been a better starter than Nick Blackburn or Carl Pavano. That being said, De Vries is the type of pitcher that walks the line. He’ll have a good game going but if you leave him in for one inning too long that good game gets turned into a bad game; quickly. De Vries first 3 starts were unimpressive and the Twins returned him to AAA in early June. He was recalled in late June to fill in for Liam Hendriks and has put together two good starts since that time. He earned his 2nd career win against the Royals on June 30th and outpitched Roy Oswalt on July 8th. If he can keep this up, he’ll likely get to stick with the club for the remainder of 2012. Right now, 2 good starts are not enough to bring up his average, however.
Mid-Season Grade: C-
While others have been called up (Casey Fien, Kyle Waldrop, Tyler Robertson, Sam Deduno) they don’t have enough innings to fairly grade.
That means the ‘report card’ totals for the Twins pitching are:
A: 2
B: 3
C: 5
D: 3
F: 2
On the surface, that looks like a pitching staff that is “average” at best – but this staff only wishes it could be called “average”. So, where’s the disparity? Look at the starter’s numbers (pre-promotions)
A: 0
B: 0
C: 1
D: 2
F: 1
The one C is Francisco Liriano’s and that grade has only been earned due to his past 5 starts. In the early portion of the season he was obviously an F. When your rotation for the first month of the season is composed of 2 D’s and 3 F’s – you’re going to struggle to win games.
So, with an average offense and a “needs improvement” pitching staff it’s not hard to see why the Twins are in the bottom tiers of the league. The season resumes on July 13th with a series at Target Field against the A’s. That game has a chance to be Francisco Liriano’s last start in a Twins uniform and it could be one of the last times this team takes the field as presently constructed. The Twins didn’t sell in 2011 and they’re paying the price in 2012. Look for the Twins to be much more active come this year’s trade deadline.
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