Span Update, The Liriano Delay & Some Bad News

Liriano’s Last Throw?

Francisco Liriano takes to the mound tonight for the Twins in what is likely his last start in a Minnesota uniform. With the July 31^st trade deadline approaching and the Twins in full ‘sell’ mode, the powerful lefthander is likely to be one of the Twins trade chips moved within the next few days.

Since returning to the starting rotation in June, Liriano has been dominant; reducing his ERA from 7.20 to 4.81. While wins have not followed this strong return (due to a lack of run support) it is clear that Liriano is ‘back’ to the quality pitcher the Twins expected him to be. With an expiring contract and a team in need of parts for rebuilding, Liriano’s increasing value means that he’s likely to be in a different uniform within the next week.

The starting pitching market seems to be waiting for Ryan Dempster to be traded from the Chicago Cubs to set appropriate values. Dempster, who leads the NL in ERA is in the final year of his contract and is widely regarded as the best pitcher available at this deadline. The Cubs have no shortage of suitors for Dempster, but recent reports have indicated that the Cubs may be asking too much for their starter, which is delaying the inevitable trade. With teams still chasing after Dempster, it’s likely that Liriano is looked at as a 2^nd or 3^rd option – until Dempster is traded (and the market ‘price’ is set) Liriano will likely stay a Twin.

I don’t anticipate the Dempster delay will prevent Liriano being traded, but I think it’s the likely cause behind the long delay in the Twins making any moves.

Hopefully Liriano can pitch well tonight and (likely) leave his career as a Twin with a ‘W’.

Twins Asking “A Ton” For Span

Following Saturday’s game, the Twitterverse was alive with rumors that Denard Span, who was pulled late in the game, had been traded to the Yankees.  Compensation wasn’t listed, but “sources” everywhere were confirming that the Twins pulled Span because he was now a Yankee.

Turns out those reports were (stunner) bogus. Span was feeling dizzy (likely from the heat – it was over 100 degrees in KC all weekend) and was pulled for health reasons. Span started Sunday’s game in center and remained in all game, alleviating any concerns that his concussion symptoms had returned.

Last week, I speculated that Span would be traded and that his value would be one to two AAA pitchers and maybe a low tier reliever. Judging from recent reports on the MLB trade market, I greatly undersold Span’s value.

With few other available options and a high demand, the center fielder market is hot right now – hot enough that Span’s value is at an all time high. With his great on base percentage, solid defense and nice contract, Span could arguably be called the best option on the market. The Twins are treating him as such – asking for multiple ‘high end’ AAA pitching prospects. One MLB source said the Twins were “asking a ton” for Span and were not actively shopping him.

Good.

I’ve said all along that Span is a perfectly fine piece to build a new team around. With Revere, Span and Willingham, the Twins have an outfield that ranks in the top of the AL. I’d still prefer to see Span moved to right field and Revere placed in center – I feel the defense would be better served this way – but even as presently laid out – this Twins outfield is a solid foundation to build a competitive team.

If you can leverage Span into a handful of pitching prospects, 2 to 3 of which can be called “major league ready” prospects – great – but there’s no sense in dealing a younger, reliable player when you don’t have to.

The Twins Are Selling…What, Exactly?

The Twins are widely regarded to be sellers at this year’s trading deadline, which is understandable given their struggles this year. The question is – what exactly are they selling?

Francisco Liriano tops the list as the Twins’ most tradeable asset – but what do the Twins have to offer after Liriano is gone?

Their two most trade worthy position players; Josh Willingham and Denard Span, are likely to stay with the team as the Twins are saying they have to be ‘wowed’ to move either player and would be fine with building around them in 2013 and 2014.

So, if Span and Willingham are off the table, who is left to sell?

Matt Capps was likely on his way out of town before landing on the DL for a 2^nd time in a month – he won’t return to August 1^st and likely won’t be traded until the August 31^st waiver deadline – if at all.

Carl Pavano’s injury is keeping him on the DL until August as well. Much like Capps, he’s likely to stay on the roster for the duration of this season.

Jared Burton and Glen Perkins are covetable assets in the bullpen, but that is the one area the Twins have confidence in. As such, they’re unlikely to deal away pieces that work in exchange for prospects.

Justin Morneau was supposedly coveted by the Blue Jays, but without Jose Bautista, the Jays look to be standing pat at the deadline, rather than buying.

Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll and Brain Dozier don’t have enough value to warrant moving them. Meanwhile Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit are all team controlled assets that the Twins won’t move.

There’s nothing of value in their starting rotation – no one will take Blackburn and his bad contract. The Twins will keep Scott Diamond and the rest of the staff is either of no value or inured.

The only other player I could see the Twins moving at the deadline would be Danny Valencia who is so far in Gardy’s doghouse that he’ll never get another fair shot at the Twins starting roster anyway.   

In all reality, the Twins missed their window to be big sellers by one year. Last season they had Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young and Jim Thome all in the last years of their contacts. Rather than selling, the Twins hung on the Kubel, Cuddyer and Nathan, letting them walk in the offseason, and traded Young and Thome after the deadline, receiving little in the way of a return.

It may be a tough pill to swallow, but it looks like the Twins inability to pull the trigger on any trades last season is going to haunt them for the foreseeable future.