With July 31st a mere 11 days away, the MLB trade market is about to be red hot. The Minnesota Twins, who sit at the bottom of the AL Central for the 2nd straight year, are likely to be sellers in some capacity. Just who do the Twins have to offer and what can the team expect in return? Let’s take a look at some prospects:
Francisco Liriano (P)
3-9, 4.81 ERA, 107 SO, 97.1 IP
Liriano’s early season struggles and second half surge have been well documented on this blog – to boil it down to a simple sentence, Francisco Liriano was really bad, now he’s really good.
Liriano’s turnaround has made him the Twins’ most valuable trade chip. Had you told most fans that in May, you may have been deemed a lunatic. But, it’s true – Liriano has been the Twins’ best trade chip over the past few weeks. Whatever reason Liriano and the Twins coaching staff found for his early season woes seems to have been patched and the new-and-improved Liriano has pitched much like the ace the Twins expected him to be.
Why Trade Him?
Consistency has to be on the front of the Twins’ minds. Liriano has looked absolutely dominate at times through is career with
Also of concern is the cost to keep Liriano. Early reports have Liriano’s cost for 2013 at or around $14 million – a figure that the Twins are likely to shy away from as they enter full rebuilding mode.
Who’s Interested: The Twins have no shortage of suitors for their lefty. The Angels, Nationals, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Braves have all been linked to having an interesting in Liriano.
What’s The Return: With each solid start, the return for Liriano is getting stronger and stronger. It’s true that Liriano will essentially be a one year rental so teams that are fading from the playoff race like the Blue Jays or on the fringe such as the Mets and Braves may be less likely to part with top prospect for a player they could lose next season. His expiring contract hurts his value slightly, but with competitive teams always looking for an extra starter, there certainly is a chance for a big return for Franky.
Chances He’ll Be Traded: 99% I don’t believe the Twins want to resign him and they certainly don’t want to let him walk without anything in return. They’ll get a deal done.
Landing Spot: With the Angels in a tight race with the Rangers, they’re becoming aggressive buyers which make them ideal candidates to trade with the Twins. Recent reports have the Angles willing to part with outfielder Peter Bourjos – who has become a luxury with the strong play of Mike Trout. In addition, the Angels have been offering starter Garrett Richards in some trades. While Bourjos and Richards may be a big return for Liriano alone, I think the Twins could easily get Bourjos and an AAA pitching prospect.
Denard Span (CF)
.287 BA, .744 OPS
Denard Span has been one of the biggest success stories in regards to Twins’ draft picks. Span is having his best season since 2009 and is a perfect table setter for the Twins offense. His defense is also some of the best in the majors.
Span is signed to a team friendly contract through the next two seasons and is only 28 years old. One would assume that Span is someone the Twins would want to keep to help anchor a rebuild. There is certainly nothing wrong with the Twins keeping Span for the next two seasons and moving him at the end of his current contract – but recent events and current opportunities could dictate otherwise.
Why Trade Him?
Ben Revere has emerged as the next future star of the Twins’ outfield. Revere is currently playing out of position in right field, a fact evidenced by opposing team’s ability to turn routine base hits into more as they challenge Revere
That range and weak arm dictate that Revere
The easy fix is for the Twins to push Span to right and allow Revere
Who’s Interested: The Nationals, who tried but failed to acquire Span last season are supposedly still in the hunt for a leadoff center fielder. The Reds are also seriously interested in Span as well as the Miami Marlins, who have been linked to Span prior to their reported interest in Red Sox OF Carl Crawford.
The Return: Players like Span don’t grow on trees, especially ones that have a team friendly contract. The Twins should be able to get two to three quality pitching prospects in return for a player of Span’s caliber.
Chances He’ll Be Traded: I would have said 40% earlier this week – but with the developments involving Liriano (I’ll expand on that later) I’m thinking the Twins are more likely to turn Span into prospects to help build their rotation for 2013 and 2014. I’d put the odds at 70% now.
Landing Spot: The Reds are in a tight race with the Pirates for the NL Central and could use a leadoff hitter and center fielder. They also have a deeper farm system than the Nationals, meaning they can offer better prospects to the Twins.
The Angels shopping Peter Bourjos has made the trade scenarios for both Span and Liriano much more interesting. If the reports are true (and they would seem to be – LA has a plethora of OF options and needs starting pitching) the Twins should try to pull off the following set of trades.
Trade: Francisco Liriano & Alex Burnett/Jeff Gray/Brain Duensing (pick one) to the Los Angeles Angels
For: Peter Bourjos and 2 pitching prospects (1 AAA, 1 A)
Trade: Denard Span to the Cincinatti Reds
For: 3 Pitching prospects (2 AAA, 1 AA)
OR
Trade: Francisco Liriano & Glen Perkins to the Los Angeles
For: Peter Bourjos, Garrett Richards & 1 AAA pitching prospect
Trade: Denard Span to the Cincinatti Reds
For: 3 Pitching prospects (2 AAA, 1 AA)
The Angels are desperately looking for bullpen help as well and if tossing in a solid ‘pen arm like Perkins gets the Angels to include Richards and another high quality prospect in the deal, the Twins should jump on the opportunity.
This works for the Twins in many ways. First, it allows Ben Revere to play his natural CF. Secondly, it turns one of their best current starters into 3 potential rotation arms for 2013 / 2014.
The RF hole is filled with Bourjos, who has been the odd man out in LA due to Mike Trout. Bourjos is young – only 24 years old – and would be a great piece to a rebuilding effort.
Garrett Richards could step into the Twins rotation immediately and would work well alongside Scott Diamond as a young foundation for the Twins to build a rotation with.
Josh Willingham
.276 BA, 23 HR, .964 OPS
Willingham has been the definition of “slam dunk free agent signing” with the Twins this year. He’s managed to stay relatively healthy – which was the largest cause for concern when it came to signing him last offseason. Willingham is built to hit at Target Field, his power and ability to pull the ball to LF has given him the team lead in home runs and has quickly made him a fan favorite.
Why Trade Him?
In all fairness, the Twins don’t want to. While they’re not telling teams that Willingham is off limits, they’re not actively shopping him either. Reports are that the Twins would only move Willingham in a “one-sided” deal. (I.E. 4-5 AAA prospects for Willingham). Realitically, that’s not happening.
Chances He’ll Be Traded: 1% Because you should never speak in absolutes, someone could go crazy and tell the Twins 3 AAA starters, 1 reliever and a major league ready second baseman for Willingham – I’ll give this trade a slight chance at life.
Dead Chips (Guys who SHOULD have been dealt by the deadline but will not be)
Matt Capps: On the DL (again) until August 1st. He had a market developing but injuries derailed that rather quickly. The Twins could move him before the August 30th waiver deadline, but the return is likely to be much less than it would have been a month ago.
Carl Pavano: Pavano is also on the DL until August and hasn’t pitched since June. He could have been shipped for a mid level prospect, instead he’ll likely walk in free agency.
Wild Cards (Guys who COULD be traded by the deadline – these are longshots)
Jamey Carroll / Alexi Casilla: The Twins could throw either of them into any deal to ‘sweeten the pot’ a little and earn another prospect in the trade. They’re not quite good enough to earn prospects on their own, but they have potential as deal “fluff”.
Jared Burton: Burton Burton
Justin Morneau: With Jose Bautista going down, the Blue Jays likely will bow out of “buying” at the deadline. That means that the team who most wanted Morneau will no longer be a buyer. Big contract, injury history, struggling with lefties – Justin likely won’t earn the return the Twins would need to move him.
Trevor Plouffe: Plouffe has come on strong since early June, currently in the midst of a 17 game hit streak and 2nd on the team in home runs. His defense at third has been respectable, making him an option for a team with a hole at third. The Twins likely want to keep Plouffe, who is finally turning into a solid player – but you can’t rule out a solid offer swaying the team’s stance.
Nick Blackburn: If the Twins got an offer – any offer – they’d probably move him. That being said, I don’t think any GM in their right mind would offer the Twins anything more than a bag of balls for Blackburn at this point in time.
Prediction (As of 7/20)
The Twins move Liriano & Alex Burnett to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, Garrett Richards and 1 AAA pitching prospect.
Denard Span is traded to the Reds for 2 AAA pitching prospects and an infield prospect.
Alexi Casilla & Glen Perkins are traded to the Giants for 2 AA pitching prospects.
Matt Capps is traded in August for 2 AA or 1 AAA pitching prospect
Carl Pavano is traded in August for a PTBNL, which turns into a middle infield prospect
Jamey Carroll is traded for a PTBNL, which turns into a middle relief prospect
By my count these (some long-shot) trades would give the Twins:
1 Starting OF
1 Starting P
3-4 AAA pitching prospects
2-4 AA pitching prospects
2 infield prospects
1 middle relief prospect
That would be one heck of a restock for this organization.
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