Liriano Fizzles - Trade Market Update

Francisco Liriano made what was likely his last start as a Minnesota Twin last night against the White Sox in Chicago. Twins fans tuned in to see the player who looked to be their future ace, their next Johan Santana, pitch one last time – and they were quickly reminded why very few fans will be sad to see him go.

As is his trademark, Liriano was wildly inconsistent last night, lasting only 2 2/3 innings and yielding 7 runs. Liriano’s control was off and his fastball was up, if that sounds familiar that’s because Liriano’s first half of 2012 was basically described in some variation of that sentence.

It’s fitting that a player who is so wildly loved and loathed by Twins fans would find a way to ruin the last remnants of good will built up by pitching well over the past few weeks. With the trade market breaking open yesterday afternoon, the Twins looked to be in a prime position; they had a hard throwing lefthander who had been nearly unhittable for much of his last 10 starts. When Anibal Sanchez was dealt to the Tigers for Jacob Turner (the Tiger’s top pitching prospect) and Rob Brantly (the Tiger’s top catching prospect) it looked like the market was shaping up to be good for the sellers.

Depending on which expert you talk to, Sanchez is either the (soon to be) third best free agent on the market or an average pitcher who compares favorably to Liriano. The honest answer lies somewhere in between. Sanchez, while having an off year this season, is certainly a better pitcher than Liriano for the simple fact that he’s more consistent. That being said, calling him the third best free agent on the market seems to reflect more on the quality of the free agent pitching market, and less on the quality of Sanchez.

So, does Liriano’s disastrous start last night destroy his value for the Twins? It’s hard to say. Part of me believes that any club who was interested in Francisco Liriano knows that he is consistently inconsistent. He is going to have bad nights and get knocked around – his bad evening last night didn’t stun any honest scouts or talent evaluators.

The other part of me wonders if teams will be scared off after this start because it resembled his earlier starts so closely. In the first few months of the season Liriano struggle to keep the ball down and allowed a lot of runs to cross the plate in a very short number of innings. While it looked like he had fixed his mechanical issues and was ‘back’ to pitching well, it felt like the Twins (and opposing teams) were just waiting for the ‘old’ Liriano to return and knock him around the field.

Liriano’s value depends solely on how opposing scouts viewed last night – a crash back to earth, or a minor blip on the radar.

The fact remains that there is still a large demand for impact pitching and not a whole lot of arms to fill that demand. The Rangers, who were already spread fairly thin in their pitching staff with Roy Oswalt being scratched due to a back injury, announced last night that Colby Lewis would likely be done for the season due to an elbow injury.

The Rangers need pitching and the Rangers have prospects. Also in the hunt are the Angels, who have gained quite a bit of ground on Texas since starting the season off so poorly. With the injuries to the Rangers piling up, one has to believe that the Angels are in ‘strike now’ mode. Hopefully the Twins can these two clubs to bid against each other and bring in a higher yield for Liriano.

I’d look for Liriano to be traded within the next two to three days. I think he’s made his last start for the Twins and the team is looking to pull the trigger.

A Market Develops:

As I mentioned earlier, the trade market went into full swing last night as teams began exchanging current assets for future assets.

The Tigers made the biggest (talent wise) splash of the day by acquiring Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez from the Marlins for Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly & Brian Flynn. The Marlins may be viewed as the winners of this trade in the long haul, getting a top pitching prospect and catching prospect in return for an aging middle infielder and soon to be free agent pitcher, but the Tigers are the winners in the short term.

The Tigers were at the bottom of the majors in terms of second baseman OBP and batting average, Infante immediately fixes that issue by giving the team a reliable on base guy with solid defense. While he’s nowhere near the player he was 3 years ago, he is still better than any players the Tigers have rolled out at second this season.

Sanchez helps the Tigers meager pitching staff become a little more respectable. Once again, he’s not the player he was even one year ago, but he’s better than a large majority of what the Tigers have.

With the money the Tigers have in this team they are in clear “win now” mode. With an AL that’s still wide open, this trade puts the Tigers right in the driver’s seat to reach the World Series.

Big Splash

The biggest “splash” trade yesterday came from the Mariners and Yankees deal. The Mariners sent their face of their franchise, Ichiro Suzuki, to the Mariners for two mid level pitching prospects.

This trade was slightly surprising for a few reasons – the biggest being that the Mariners parted ways with Ichiro, a player who seemed destined to retire with the club he entered the big leagues with. Apparently Ichiro and the Mariners had grown apart over the years and the team, in need of a complete rebuild, and player, desiring a chance at a World Series, decided to part ways.

The bigger surprise in this is how many people thought the Yankees just bought another title by making this trade. 1) They didn’t “buy” anything here, they moved prospects for an established player. Every team does that. I’m no Yankee fan but don’t hate on them for doing what EVERY club does. 2) Don’t let the name fool you, the Yankees didn’t get THAT good of a player. While Ichiro was one of the best on base guys of the last decade, a quick glance at his numbers will tell you that this has changed. His OBP and average have dipped significantly over the past three years and he doesn’t steal bases like he used to.

By name value, it sounds like the Yankees made a big acquisition – but in reality they made a marginal upgrade to a position of need. Ichiro is good – but nowhere near as talented as Denard Span, Justin Upton or Carl Crawford are currently.

From a Twins perspective, what does this do to the value of Denard Span? It’s hard to say, but I’d have to think it hurts it slightly. The Yankees probably paid fair value for Ichiro’s ability and their need – but the lower tier prospects will do little to set the market tone. The bigger blow is the fact that the Yankees are likely out of the outfielder hunt, meaning one less big fish to engage in a bidding war for Span.

The Reds and Nationals are still on the search for a center fielder / leadoff batter and would be likely Span destinations. The Marlins were supposed to be looking for a center fielder, but their trade yesterday with the Tigers would indicate they are going to be sellers at this deadline.

In the end, I think the Ichiro trade means Span stays with the Twins. The Yankees seemed like the most likely destination and with their exit from the market, I think the return probably drops slightly for a player of Span’s caliber. The Twins are not shopping him and would only deal him if they got “a ton” in return – so don’t be surprised if he stays put for the rest of this season.

Power Bat Market: Red Hot

The market for power hitters is dry – teams are desperate to add one more big bat to their lineup, but there are not a lot of those players available on bad clubs. The ones who are available (Alfonso Soriano) are locked into horrible contracts. Josh Willingham is one of the few, if not only, power bat who is signed to a fair contract. This means he is the best commodity on the market – and I shouldn’t  have to tell you what that means to a team willing to part with that commodity.

Jackpot.

I know that Twins fans (myself included) love Willingham and his bat. He’s been a great free agent signing for the team this season and I would be fine with him remaining a Twin for the next few years.

That being said, when does the market dictate that the Twins make a move? By all accounts, Willingham should be able to bring the Twins A LOT in terms of prospects – given the current state of affairs in the minor leagues in terms of pitching (dismal) and the current state of this team (dismal) shouldn’t the Twins consider moving Willingham for the strong return he’ll bring?

I’m not a fan of trading a guy immediately after signing him but the simple fact is the Twins are flush with outfield prospects, some of which could be ready by next season. If a team comes knocking with their arms full of pitching and middle infield prospects – don’t the Twins have to change course and listen?