We’re on the cusp of spring training, Twins fans, and although many fans have soured on the 2013 edition of the Minnesota Twins before the first bats have even been swung, I’m still maintaining a little optimism in regards to this team.
I’m holding off on my full AL & NL projections and playoff picks until the just prior to the start of the season, but I figured I’d put together a little AL Central prediction just for fun. Obviously this ranking could (and likely will) change with injuries or breakout players in spring training, but as of today, here’s how I see the AL Central:
Detroit: 92-70
Chicago: 83-79
Kansas City: 79-83
Minnesota: 71-91
Cleveland: 69-93
Detroit Tigers: 92-70
The Tigers finally put enough of their talent together at the end of 2012 to make a run to the World Series. This team is loaded with a solid rotation, anchored by perennial CY Young candidate in Justin Verlander and quality starters Annibal Sanchez, Doug Fister and Rick Porcello.
It’s the Tigers’ offense, however, that should really scare opposing teams. Triple Crown winner Migeul Cabrera, alongside Prince Fielder, Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez and newly acquired Torii Hunter make the Tigers’ lineup a ‘murder’s row’ for any opposing pitcher.
For some reason the team underperformed in 2012, allowing the White Sox to hang around until the last week of the season. It’s entirely possible that their horrible defense and questionable bullpen make the Tigers a little more ‘mortal’ this year, but with a solid staff, great offense and a weak division, the Tigers should win enough games to easily put the AL Central away in mid-August.
Chicago White Sox: 83-79
The White Sox were a surprise contender for much of 2012, holding on to first place in the Central for nearly the entire season. Their rotation pitched slightly above average and their offense turned in great seasons from Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, AJ Pierzynski and a surprise contribution for Kevin Youkilis. In the end, the just didn’t have enough talent to keep up with a loaded Detroit squad.
Many thought the White Sox would enter the 2013 offseason in a "win-now" mode. Their farm system is devoid of high impact talent (they rank 29th-30th on many prospect lists) so once their current generation of stars mature, it could be years before they’re back in a contending mode. Instead, the Sox let Youkilis and Pierzynski walk in free agency and replaced them with solid players – but not necessarily upgrades over the players they let go.
I expect the White Sox offense to be worse than their 2012 edition, their relying on aging players to keep contributing at a high level, a risk that will eventually fail. With little in the way of depth and a decent but not outstanding rotation, I could see the White Sox fading to below .500. However, the Sox always find a way to hang around, and I have a hunch that this group will play well early in the year before fading down the stretch. At 83-79 I have them finishing 2nd in the Central, but the decline will only get worse in the coming years.
Kansas City Royals: 79-83
The Royals decided to go all in this offseason, shipping off top prospect Will Meyers and Jake Ordorizzi to the Rays for James Shields and Wade Davis. They also acquired Ervin Santana from the Angels to shore out a rotation around Bruce Chen and Jamie Guthrie. The Shields trade was bold, and the Royals are obviously pushing their chips all in this season in hopes of making a run at the crown.
Unfortunately, the Royals likely jumped the gun. Their offense, built around many young, promising players, is still 1 to 2 years away from being "ready" to compete at a high level. Will Meyers would have been the brilliant final cog in an otherwise solid offense and Ordorizzi would have made a great #3 starter in young rotation. Instead, they’re in Tampa while the Royals picked up Shields, who is only under team control for one more season, and Davis, who is better suited for a bullpen role.
It was a bold move that will improve the team in 2013. Unfortunately, Shields is not enough of a boost to put the Royals on top of the division. Santana has been statistically one of the worst pitchers in the AL over the past few seasons and Guthrie and Chen are anything but top tier talent. Essentially the Royals WERE on the cusp of being the Nationals of the AL, and instead decided to make a foolhardy and premature move that will only show short term bonuses. They’ll be better, but not much better than a .500 team.
Minnesota Twins: 71-91
Yes, I still have faith in the Twins. Their rotation was historically awful in 2012, forcing their above average bullpen to work more innings, thereby dragging their ERA down as well. The offense was slightly above average, but when buried in 5 to 6 run holes, wasn’t enough to help the Twins win.
The Twins have ‘fixed’ their rotation with a battalion of short term patches in Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley (who is less patch, more "solution"). Scott Diamond had a breakout year in 2012 and Liam Hendriks has the potential to do the same in 2013. The bullpen, as mentioned, was very solid last year and looks to be deeper this season with the addition of Rich Harden and the potential of Caleb Thielbar and other minor leaguers making the jump.
Ben Revere and Denard Span are gone, but Aaron Hicks is apparently ready to assume the CF role. Chris Parmelee, fresh off a monster season in AAA (seriously, look up his numbers – he was the best offensive player in the International League – the other top guys were former Major Leaguers or AAAA type players) is ready to take over full time duties in right field. Trevor Plouffe is healthy once again and looks to recapture his power surge from June of 2012. Josh Willingham, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are all above average offensive options that will fill out the center of the batting order.
This team is a solid rotation away from being a sneaky contender. While the Twins opted for cheap "lottery ticket" type players this offseason, the potential is there for the patchwork staff to ‘click’ and start winning games. I’m tempering expectations – I see the Twins improving by about 6-7 wins, but I wouldn’t be shocked if everything went right and they crept up closer to 81 wins. (Alternatively, it could all go wrong – like 2012 – and they could plummet to 100 loses).
Cleveland Indians: 69-93
Cleveland burst out of the gate in 2012, jumping to an early division lead and playing like a contending team. Unfortunately for them, the calendar changed from May to June and they began a free fall to the AL Central cellar. The Indians made a few improvements, shipping out Choo for Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer, but much like the Royals, a few upgrades do not make a winning team.
They’ve still got a perplexing starting rotation, a questionable bullpen and a potentially great-yet oddly subpar offense. Terry Francona will help this team win games, assuming they keep their rebuild going. Cleveland is silently in position to move to the top of the Central with the Twins over the next few years, but for 2013, I don’t see how they can be anything but basement dwellers yet again.
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