Recapping the Twins' Offseason Moves

Our long national nightmare is over! With pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective spring training facilities today in Florida and Arizona, baseball has finally emerged from the harsh winter to awaken spring from its slumber.

Okay…so it’s still winter. And baseball isn’t really BACK for another few weeks – BUT – your favorite team’s pitchers are playing soft toss with your favorite team’s catchers. That counts for something, right?

Most teams enter spring training with a well full of hope and optimism. Their offseason moves were the ones to propel their team to the World Series. 100 win season? No problem. Win the division? Of course!

Expectations and hopes are high for nearly every team. The Twins, unfortunately, are not one of those teams.

 Let’s recap their offseason moves to see just how well the last place team in the AL Central (2 years running) improved:

Twins sign Kevin Correia to a 2 year / $10 million contract

The Twins were repeatedly attached to big name free agents such as Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Meyers and Joe Saunders at the beginning of the offseason. For whatever reason, the Twins decided they couldn’t / wouldn’t be players in the markets for many of these pitchers and, in what can only be described as a moment of panic, went after Kevin Correia, most recently of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Correia is a prototypical Twins "reclamation" project. He has a high ground ball rate (44.3% career) he doesn’t walk batters (3.22 BB/9 career, but he’s been under 2.40 BB/9 the past two years). He also doesn’t strike out batters (4.68 K/9 career) and has an average BABIP (.294 career). In short, Correia is Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis "esque". The Twins aren’t looking for him to be an ace, just an inning eater who posts a .500 record with a 3.5-4.00 ERA.

So why are the fans bemoaning this signing so vigorously? The contract. 2 years for a guy like Correia is questionable, especially when the Twins are basically putting together a stop gap rotation this season. Even worse is the $10 million offered to Correia. When you consider that guys like McCarthy (2 years, $15 million) and Marcum (1 year $4 million) and Saunders (1 year, $7 million) were all had for relatively the same cost, choosing to sign a low upside pitcher like Correia for $10 million is highly questionable.

Twins trade Denard Span to Washington for Alex Meyer

　

The Twins have a surplus of OF talent in their minor leagues. Aaron Hicks will see big league time in 2013. Joe Benson is a strong spring away from being Major League ready and Oswaldo Arcia is likely heading to Rochester with a spot in Minnesota available as soon as they enter "sell" mode and move some players around. The point is, OF depth was one of the few positives for the Twins in 2012. With that depth, a 3.0 WAR player with a great contract like Span was a valuable trade chip.

The Twins moved that chip for Alex Meyer, a top pitching prospect from the Nationals system. In two years of A and high A ball, Meyer has average a 9.04 K/9 while keeping his ERA at an average of 2.82 over the two years. Meyer is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins are looking to build around, he’s tall, a power thrower and he strikes batters out. He’s viewed as a future ace or #2 starter, and has ranked in every scouting experts’ top 100 prospect list this season.

While Meyer was certainly a great acquisition given the Twins’ needs, it’s unfortunate that he was the ONLY acquisition. A player of Span’s value should bring back a lot more than one A ball pitcher. By moving Span for only one prospect, the Twins undersold their most valuable chip. They didn’t HAVE to move Span, and if that’s the only return they could get for him (highly unlikely) they wouldn’t have been any worse off keeping him for 2013.

Twins trade Ben Revere to the Phillies for Trevor May and Vance Worley

One week after shipping off Span and seemingly anointing Ben Revere as the starting CF for 2013, the Twins do the unthinkable and ship off the popular speedster as well.

Unlike Span, the Twins got a great return for Revere, in fact, you could argue they forced the Phillies to overpay for a player like Revere.

Worley is the biggest grab in this trade. Despite coming off of offseason elbow surgery, Worley looks to be a top of the line starter for the Twins for the next few years. Worley strikes batters out (7.71 K/9 career) limits walks (3.14 BB/9 career) and holds a career FIP of 3.57 (slightly inflated due to a small sample size). The best part is Worley strikes guys out without them swinging the bat, and with a questionable middle infield behind him this year, that aspect may be the most valuable part of his game.

Trevor May had been a top prospect in the Phillies system for the past few seasons before a poor 2012 dropped him from many lists. The issues with May in 2012 have been well documented and reportedly ‘fixed’ meaning the Twins likely believed 2012 was a hiccup and not an indicator of a larger issue. He’s projected conservatively as a #3 starter, but has the potential to be a #2 guy.

While trading away Revere was shocking, the return from the Phillies was simply too good to pass up.

Twins Sign Mike Pelfrey to a 1 year, $4 million contract

Keeping with their theme for the offseason, the Twins picked up another reclamation project in Mike Pelfrey. The 29 year old righty is coming off of Tommy John surgery (in May) but is supposedly ready to pitch at full strength by opening day. Pelfrey has a career K/9 of 5.08, has limited his walks (3.19 BB/9 career) and induces ground balls (48.6% career). He’s not going to blow guys away, but he’s a lot less likely to take the mound and get blown up in the 3^rd inning too. Pelfrey has higher upside than Correia and better talent, and is signed at a better price. Assuming he can pitch at full strength for the entire season, I like this signing by the Twins.

There you have it. Two free agent pitcher signings and two trades. In all, the Twins added three starting pitchers. One who looks to be of the mold the Twins are moving towards (strikeout guys) two who are very much what the Twins have been for the last 10 years (veteran groundball, control guys). They added much needed depth for the future by moving from a position of strength and they didn’t address any of the middle infield concerns.

It’s hard to know how to view the Twins’ offseason. On the surface, it was a series of underwhelming signings and a lot of reliance on upcoming youth (Hicks, Gibson, Parmelee, Hendriks, Florimon and Dozier are all being relied on to develop into something substantial this season). The Twins have lowered their payroll to a miniscule $85 million, and will see that number fall into the $40-$50 million range within the next two years if they don’t make any major signings.

I think the rotation has gotten better, simply by adding consistent veterans to the staff. I think the outfield defense has worsened, but not to the extent others are predicting (Parmelee is not a total disaster in RF). I think the Twins have the potential to be a dark horse team if all the pieces work like they could. They’re also likely the worst team in the AL Central, again, if the plan doesn’t work.