With spring training a mere week away, it’s a good time to break down the lower levels of the Twins’ system and see just how deep the team is heading into 2013. Thankfully, after suffering through a few years with a very poor farm system, (somewhat unexpectedly, as the Twins have always been a team to build from within) the Twins are entering 2013 with a very strong farm system that is now back to ranking within the top 5-10 in Major League Baseball.
Today, I’ll take my run down of the best 25 players in the Twins’ system, along with a brief synopsis of why they ended up where they did. Let’s get rolling!
1. Miguel Sano (3B)
• Sano proved his power potential while in A ball last season, hitting .258/.373/.528 with 28 home runs and 100 RBI. Sano has been praised for his ability to hit absolutely bad pitches out of the park. He’s a dangerous hitter who will only benefit from some more time in the minors to improve his plate discipline. His one flaw would be his defense at 3B. I don’t let that weigh his value, however, as he can always be shifted to 1B if that doesn’t improve.
2. Byron Buxton (OF)
• Buxton could be argued for the #1 spot, but he’s still full of “potential” where Sano has actually proven some ability. Buxton’s swing is frequently compared to Ken Griffey Jr. which should tell you just how fluid and compact it is. He has great speed and scouts believe his power will develop as he advances through the minors. He does have the tendency to open up his stance pre-swing before closing his stance as he was swinging. This is a mechanical issue that coaches SHOULD be able to fix, but left unchecked, it would greatly lower his MLB value.
3. Aaron Hicks (OF)
• Hicks has shown up from 5-7 on many Twins’ prospect lists this season, I’m a bit higher on him than others. He showed a great deal of patience and an improved batter’s eye while in AA last season. He doesn’t have overwhelming power (think: Denard Span) but his speed is elite and his arm is one of the best in the system. He’ll make his debut in CF for the Twins sometime in 2013.
4. Eddie Rosario (2B)
• Rosario began his career as yet another OF in a farm system chocked full of OF prospects. The Twins shifted Rosario to 2B last season, an obvious area of need for the club, and he excelled. His more to the infield is the biggest reason he cracks my top 5. His swing has been compared to Robinson Cano’s, he has solid power, great discipline and plays above average defense at 2B. Because he fills a bigger need for the Twins, he gets a spot or two “bump” on the list. He’s still 2 years away from the bigs, but a solid year at AA this season could see that scheduled excelerated to next season.
5. Oswaldo Arcia (OF)
• Arcia is a personal favorite. He has demonstrated great power, solid plate discipline and above average defense over the past few seasons. His path to the Majors is nearly cleared, meaning he’ll likely be called up at some point in 2013. My favorite active player comparison? “A Venezuelan Jason Kubel”.
6. Alex Meyer (SP)
• Twins fans should be excited to see Meyer in the big leagues. As the lone piece the Twins got in the Denard Span trade, some fans soured quickly on Meyer, thinking the Twins had made a bad deal. When you step back and objectively look at Meyer, you’ll see the Twins made a GREAT trade. Meyer has a great pitch selection, elite control and (gasp!) enough power to strike batters out. He’s projected to be a #1 starter (#2 at worst) once he hits the bigs. His debut won’t come until 2014 at the earliest, but he’s a player Twins fans should be excited for.
7. Kyle Gibson (SP)
• Gibson was on pace to make his Major League debut in 2012, but Tommy John surgery at the end of 2011 ensured he would have to sit out most of the season. He pitched well in the Arizona Fall League at the end of the year and will likely start 2013 in either the bullpen or AAA on a pitch count. Gibson has great control, induces groundballs and projects to be a solid #3 guy in the big leagues.
8. J.O. Berrios (SP)
• The Twins second draft selection in 2012, J.O. Berrios is a flame thrower with great control. He has a nice pitch selection and strikes batters out. The Twins molding him into a starting pitcher, but he can always be shifted to a bullpen role if he can’t cut it as a starter (which looks unlikely right now). Berrios just needs experience, look for the Twins to give him all of 2013 in the minors before calling him up in 2014.
9. Trevor May (SP)
• Acquired from the Phililes as part of the Ben Revere trade, Trevor May immediately adds great depth to a Twins system that was lacking quality starters. Entering 2012, May was listed as the Phillies best prospect, but a sub-par 2012 season had him lower on many scout’s lists. The Phillies attributed this poor season to a mechanical flaw in May’s delivery. Once they found and corrected that flaw, May returned to the dominant starter he was in 2011. May’s upside is a #2 starter, but look for him to be more of a solid #3 guy. He could crack the big league roster as early as 2013 if he excels, but 2014 is a more realistic debut day for the right hander.
10. Joe Benson (OF)
• Benson had a horrible, no good, very bad 2012. He started the year in a hitting slump, and then injured his wrist, causing him to miss most of the season. When you look at his abilities, however, (Speed, Power, Defense) you can see that Benson is still a top prospect. Write off last season as an anomaly – Benson still has a great chance to find his way onto the 2013 roster.
11. Luke Bard (SP/RP)
• Another 2012 draft pick from college, Bard is set to make quick progress through the minor leagues. He worked both as a starter and reliever in college, but the Twins are trying to convert him to a starter full time. He has great control and does strike out batters at a decent rate with a plus fastball and solid slider. He’s viewed as a solid, complete pitcher who needs nothing more than experience before he’s big league ready. Look for a 2014 debut.
12. Max Kepler (OF)
• 2012 saw Kepler make impressive strides in both power and plate discipline while playing in the Appalachian League. He’ll start 2013 in A level Cedar Rapids, so he’s a ways away from a big league debut, but if he keeps developing and improving he’s certainly got a spot in the outfield in Minnesota.
13. Mason Melotakis (RP)
• Another 2012 draft class relief pitcher, Melotakis compares well with Luke Bard. He throws hard, has great control and a solid pitch selection. He’s projected to be more of a reliever than starter, which is why the similarly skilled Bard lands 2 posts ahead of Melotakis on the list. Look for a big league debut of 2014 to 2015.
14. Travis Harrison (3B/1B)
• Harrison is another ‘big stick’ prospect in the Twins’ system. He has outstanding power but average to below average plate discipline. The Twins have him playing 3B right now, but he’s likely to be moved to 1B or even a corner outfield spot if his defense doesn’t improve. His 2012 Appalachian League season wasn’t as impressive as the team might have liked, so it’s hard to say if he’ll make it to Cedar Rapids to start the season.
15. Niko Goodrum (SS)
• Another one of my favorites, Goodrum has demonstrated solid defense and good plate discipline while spending the past two years in the Appalachian League. He’s still a bit raw, and needs to develop all of his skills a little more. 2013 will likely see him promoted to Cedar Rapids where he’ll have a chance to show he’s improving.
16. Jorge Polanco (2B)
• Between Rosario, Goodrum, Polanco and Micheal, this Twins do actually have some infield depth on the way. Polanco has an above average glove at 2B and just needs to continue improving his bat to become a high level prospect. He’ll likely start 2013 in either Cedar Rapids or the Appalachian League.
17. Zach Jones (RP)
• Now we start our run on pitching depth. Another 2012 draft pick, Jones is a hard throwing relief pitcher who debuted in Beloit during 2012 and impressed many scouts with great control and great speed (hitting 100MPH on a few occasions). He’ll need time to refine his skills, but a 2013 start in AA New Britain and a 2014-2015 big league debut isn’t out of reach.
18. J.T. Chargois (RP)
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before – Chargois was a 2012 draft pick, a college relief pitcher, who throws hard and has solid control. The Twins view him as someone with closer potential. With his skills, he should advance quickly through the farm system. Expect a 2013 AA debut followed by a mid-season promotion to AAA if he continues to pitch well.
19. Caleb Thielbar (LHRP)
• Admittedly, I’m higher on Thielbar than others. He rocketed through the Twins system in 2012, starting the year at the A level, before ending 2012 in AAA Rochester. The lefty reliever is making the most out of his second chance in the big leagues (he was in the Brewers system in 2010). He has great control and keeps the ball in the park. If he doesn’t start the year in the Twins bullpen, look for him to be one of the first guys called up in the event of injury.
20. B.J. Hermsen (SP)
• Once again, Hermsen is higher on my list than some others, but I tend to value guys who are on the cusp of the big leagues a little more than the A ball players. Hermsen is a more prototypical “Twins type” pitcher. He’s big, has great command and keeps the ball in the park. He’s not going to blow you away with strikeout totals, but his ability to induce ground balls makes him a solid #4 to #5 starting candidate. He’ll begin 2013 in AAA, but he’s not far from seeing the Target Field mound.
21. Nate Roberts (OF)
• Roberts had a break-out season at the Arizona Fall League. He posted an absurd 1.226 OBPS with an equally impressive .446 BA over 84 starts in the Fall League. With his great speed and average power, Roberts is built to be a leadoff hitter. Injuries have kept him from advancing, making him one of the older players in Beloit last year. 2013 should see him start in New Britain. While his numbers will likely come down to earth, if he can continue to show the ability to get on base, he’ll have a job as a leadoff hitter on some big league roster in a few years.
22. Adam Walker (OF)
• Walker makes my top 25 based solely on the “P” word (Potential). He has great power and speed, but strikes out far too much and doesn’t always make good contact with the ball. He’s still in the low levels of the system, so there is certainly time for the Twins coaches to iron out these issues.
23. Chris Herrmann (C)
• Herrmann saw a brief flash of the bigs last season during a late September call-up. He struggled at the plate, but showed very impressive defense at both catcher and OF. Herrmann actually swings a solid bat, and his defensive flexibility is an added bonus. He’s filling in for Drew Butera by the middle of 2013 at best, by the start of 2014 at worst.
24. Levi Michael (SS/2B)
• A top pick from 2010, the Twins were criticized for taking Michael so high in the draft when many thought he was 2nd to 3rd round talent. Michael struggled in his first season, but in 2012 the Twins shifted him to 2B and he seemed to improve. He’s not advancing at the pace a top pick should be, but he shouldn’t be counted as a bust yet either. He’s years away from making any form of big league impact, but the talent is certainly there.
25. Micheal Tonkin (RP)
• A strikeout inducing reliever who has shown the ability to hit 95-97MPH on the gun while keeping guys off base. He pitched well in the Arizona Fall League and will likely start in New Britain in 2013. He’s yet another valuable reliever in a system chocked full of relief arms. It’s not the same list as many other evaluators have put up, but I’m always a little more biased to guys who are knocking on the door.
Take a look at that list for a minute, look how many of the players are new additions from 2012. There are 8 players who were not with the team in 2011. Of those 8, 4 are in the top 10 and 6 are in the top 15. Say what you want about Terry Ryan’s offseason moves as far as the starting roster goes, but from a farm standpoint, Terry Ryan took a struggling system and infused it with needed talent.
Waiting is a hard thing to do, I know, but Twins fans can take some solace in the fact that the Twins are gearing up for another run of being competitive with home grown talent. All we have to do is wait a couple years.
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