Spring Training Stock Watch

Over the weekend, the Twins embarked on their first two games of the 2013 spring training "season" dropping both contests (but, who cares about wins and losses in the spring?) but showing some interesting things regarding this year’s team.

While spring training stats and performances all need to be taken with a grain of salt, it is a good opportunity for lesser known or fringe players to make a ‘surge’ into the conversation for a roster spot. Each year, there are players who work their way on (or off) of the roster by simply being great during the spring. (Brian Dozier in 2012, for example).

First, let’s establish that there are a certain number of players who will be on the roster, no matter their spring performance. Those players are:

Position Players

Joe Mauer – Starting Catcher, DH, Backup 1B

Justin Morneau – Starting 1B, DH

Trevor Plouffe – Starting 3B

Josh Willingham – Left Field, DH

Chris Parmelee – Right Field, Backup 1B

Ryan Doumit – DH, Backup catcher

Jamey Carroll – Utility Infielder

Darin Mastroianni – 4^th Outfielder (Possible starting CF)

Pitchers

Kevin Correia – Starting Pitcher

Scott Diamond – Starting Pitcher

Mike Pelfrey – Starting Pitcher

Vance Worley – Starting Pitcher

Glen Perkins – Closer

Jared Burton – Set-up Man

The above group is making the team 100%. Not one of them will start in AAA (maybe the DL, but they’re not getting optioned down to the lower leagues). That means that everyone else is on the fringe. Now, there are certain players with better odds than others (Brian Duensing, Pedro Florimon look likely to make the roster) but a bad spring could, theoretically, knock them out of the running.

With that framework established, let’s begin a weekly feature that I’m calling "Spring Training Stock Watch" and yes, it’s just like it sounds. Each Monday, we’ll look at the spring training performances of ‘fringe’ players over the past week of games and assess their stock as rising, falling or stagnant along with a projection of their spot on the 25 man. Got it? Good – let’s get started.

Rising:

Danny Santana – SS – Only two games into the spring and the early star is Danny Santana. Ron Gardenhire, Terry Ryan and the team’s beat reporters have all been chronicled praising Santana’s tools and skills. His plate discipline has looked good so far, as he’s reached base in every at bat (3 walks, 1 hit). He has solid defensive range and a good arm. At a position of weakness for the Twins, a strong spring from Santana could push him into starting consideration. 25 Man Projection (If season started today) – Danny’s highest level has been AA, so he’d probably be sent to AAA to start the year, but a strong spring will only improve his ranking.

Eddie Rosario – 2B – Rosario is quickly showing why many prospectors and baseball sites are so high on the future Twins 2B. He’s hit well so far this spring, and his defense has been solid. He’s got to improve his defense all around (he’s still dropping some balls and misplaying routine plays) and he needs to show he can hit consistently, but so far so good for the youngster. 25 Man Projection - He’ll see AA to start the year, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him in AAA by mid year and in the big leagues in September if he continues to excel.

Kyle Gibson – SP – Gibson came out of the gate throwing 96 MPH heat, while dropping his slider down to the high 80’s (88 MPH). He’s pitched for 2 innings so far, giving up only 1 hit and striking out 2. He had solid command and great speed. Manager Ron Gardenhire was so impressed he joked that he wished he could shut Gibson down for the rest of the spring to preserve his inning totals (obviously implying he’s a starting rotation candidate). 25 Man Projection – He’d be in the starting rotation, likely as the number 4 or 5 guy.

Liam Hendriks – SP – Liam struggled in 2012, there’s no way around that. He nibbled around the zone, got behind in the count and then, when he was forced to throw the ball down the middle, he was simply blasted out of the park. In AAA, Liam attacked the zone, got ahead of batters and looked very impressive, so it was frustrating for the Twins’ staff to see him fail to do just that at the big league level. He entered spring with a shot at the rotation, but he’d have to really show the ability to throw strikes. He did just that in his first start of 2013. Hendriks pitched for 2 innings, throwing 32 pitches (20 of them strikes) while only giving up 2 hits and 1 earned run. The Twins aren’t looking for him to be an ace, just a solid back of the rotation guy. More outings like this one will show that he can do that. 25 Man Projection – He’s the number 5 guy right now, but with a short leash.

Falling

Brain Duensing – RP - Duensing effectively proved he cannot be a starter during last season’s "anyone with a functioning arm gets to pitch" campaign. His hope coming into this season was to become a solid middle to long reliever, with the downside being a lefty specialist. That downside is looking like his only upside, as Duensing was shelled on Sunday, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs over 1 inning. The Twins do have other options for the bullpen this year, however, so Duensing shouldn’t settle thinking he has a role with the team. More shelling could spell the end for him. 25 Man Projection – Lefty specialist right now…but a strong outing from another lefty could cost him that spot

Anthony Slama – RP – Slama has been the underdog of Twins fans for the past few seasons. He’s been dominate in AAA, but the Twins have never called up him to get a shot at the big leagues. Rumors around the front office point to the fact that the Twins don’t think Slama’s stuff translates to the highest level. He didn’t do anything to discourage that notion on Sunday. Slama pitched 2/3 of an inning, giving up hits, 3 earned runs and walking 2 others. 25 Man Projection – AAA with zero shot of sniffing the major league roster.

It’s early yet, so there’s still much to be sorted out in regards to this season’s roster. There are a lot of players on the fringe who have yet to make a move one way or the other. Keep an eye on Brian Dinkleman, Chris Herrmann and Cole DeVries – they are all dark horse candidates to grab a roster spot out of spring training and a solid few weeks could boost their stock to that level.

As I said, I’ll keep doing this feature each Monday, so we can better track the Twins’ players who are making their move on (or off) the big league roster.