Trade Deadline Rumor Mill

The next few weeks figure to be active ones for all of the Major League teams. Contenders will ship off prospects to last place squads in exchange for key pieces for a run at the title. Fringe teams will decide between pushing their chips all in or hedging their bets for the future. The Minnesota Twins will obviously be on the selling side of this equation (yet again) but the degree as to which they’re sellers has yet to be determined.

Recent reports make it sound like the team is willing to move at least one key piece, first baseman Justin Morneau. Morneau’s had a bit of comeback season, batting .273/.331/.406 but his power numbers have been a shell of what they once were as Morneau has only clubbed 7 long balls this season.

Ever since Morneau’s 2010 concussion shortened season, the Twins’ slugger hasn’t quite been the ‘real’ Justin Morneau. As he battled through concussion symptoms, wrist and neck injuries he looked lost at the plate, with his power numbers nearly non-existent and his approach at the plate more ‘swing and pray’ less ‘plan of attack’. As he enters the final year of his contract with the Twins, Morneau’s done enough to put his name on the short list of available impact bats as the deadline approaches.

The Twins were reportedly approached by Morneau’s agents within the past month and simply declined to negotiate an extension for the coming seasons. From the Twins’ point of view that makes perfect sense, there’s no rush to extend Morneau, especially if a team comes along and makes you a solid offer. If the deadline comes and goes and the team doesn’t find a taker for Morneau, you can then return to the negotiating table and try to get a deal done.

This decision is also very telling. The Twins’ first priority seems to be trading Morneau, if they really didn’t want to move him, they’d be working on extension and simply making sure they had their own ducks in a row for the coming seasons. By holding off until they don’t have any other options, the Twins have effectively tipped their hand – they’re selling #33.

As has been speculated all season, the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox are interested in the power hitting lefty. Each team is in the midst of a playoff push and each team could really use an impact bat to boost their offense. I mentioned in a post last week that I felt the best fit for Morneau (and the Twins) would be a trade to Tampa Bay. The Rays have the pieces the Twins would want for Justin and he provides the very thing the Rays offense needs – power.

However, it’s recently been revealed that there’s at least one more player in the market for a slugger that we hadn’t discussed; the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The move makes perfect sense for the Pirates, who are in the midst of their best season in over 20 years. They’re one of the best teams in the National League, but are likely to find themselves in a very tight race with the Reds and Cardinals all season. They have great pitching depth, but could really use a big bat to boost their offense. Trading for Morneau makes perfect sense.

The Pirates also have the pieces that the Twins would be looking for in a trade, mainly young pitching prospects. Recent reports have the Pirates offering 19 year old righty Tyler Glasnow as the return for Justin, which, if true, would be a great get for the Twins. Glasnow currently pitches for the Pirates high A affiliate in West Virginia. He’s a power pitcher with a good strikeout to walk ratio and is projectable into a top of the rotation starter. He’d likely begin 2014 in AA, but could be big league ready by late 2014 or early 2015, meaning he’d be arriving right as the Twins start making their contending push.

These rumors seem to indicate a deal is all but done, and if true, the Twins would be foolish to pass. The opportunity to pick up another potential high end starter (to go alongside Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Kyle Gibson, Kohl Stewart, Michael Gonsalves, DJ Baxendale, JO Berrios and others) for an aging slugger who will not be part of your next contending team is one you dream about as a GM. The deal makes sense for the Pirates and the Twins, let’s hope it gets done.

Perkins “Not Available”

The Twins have been approached by the Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox and others about their price on Glen Perkins, to which the Twins have reportedly told teams “No price, not for sale”. I understand the concern the Twins have in moving a fan favorite and home grown talent in Glen Perkins, the recent All-Star has become the face of the franchise along with Joe Mauer and with fan favorite Justin Morneau likely out the door, trading Perkins could damage PR with the fans in the short time.

That being said, Perkins is a 30 year old closer having a career season. Baseball history has been unkind to closers, especially closers over their 30’s. With the exception of Mariano Rivera, every other ‘elite’ closer over the past 20 years has seen their elite status crumble in a few short seasons. By the time the Twins are seriously contending with their youth movement (2015, 2016) Perkins will be 32 / 33 and could be on the downside of his dominant status.

The time to trade him his now. And the perfect trade partner is just waiting…but it will take a lot of willpower for Twins fans to see Perkins go there.

The Detroit Tigers. (Yuck)

I feel sick just typing it, but from the Twins’ perspective it makes the absolute most sense. The Tigers are all in on winning a World Series – NOW – and they’re very close to being able to do that. Their one weakness? The backend of the bullpen .

The Tigers are reportedly wiling to part with their top prospect, OF Nick Castenallos, in exchange for an elite closer, which Perkins is. Casetenallos was originally a 3B prospect who the Tigers converted to an outfielder due to Miguel Cabrera’s spot at 3B. Scouts think he can easily be converted back to a 3B, but with Miguel Sano coming, the Twins don’t need a player at 3B either, but Castenallos’ other convertible position – 1B – is why the Twins should be making this deal. With Morneau gone, the team has an opening at 1B and Castenallos’ power bat would look mighty good their for the Twins in 2014 and beyond.

Castenallos is currently in AAA and by most accounts is Major League ready. The 21 year old is a power hitter that hits for a decent  average and can field his position as well. He’s the number one prospect in the Tigers system and would slide onto a Twins team that is just about to become flush with elite young talent.

If I’m the Twins, I don’t stop there. When you hold the best asset available and a team is desperate for that asset, you make them pay. The Tigers will need to toss in more, and I think the Twins would be able to get Drew Smyly in the deal as well. Smyly is essentially the Tigers’ 6^th starter, but with such a loaded and well preforming rotation, he’s been relegated to bullpen duty this season. His name has popped up in trades on and off again since last offseason and it’s no secret the Tigers would be willing to move him for a piece they desperately need – like a closer.

Have Detroit sweeten the pot by throwing in a projectable low level starting pitching prospect and we have a deal. Glen Perkins for Nick Castenallos, Drew Smyly and a player to be named later (I’d make the PTBNL conditional, each level the Tigers advance in the playoffs, the Twins get al little better prospect).

Yes, the Twins would effectively be handing the Tigers the ammo to win the World Series, and yes it would be by trading a Minnesota native and fan favorite player – but I think fans (who would be very uhappy at first) would understand in 2015 when their lineup looks something like this:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Nick Castenallos

2B: Eddie Rosario

SS: Danny Santana or Free agent TBD (if Santana isn’t ready)

3B: Miguel Sano

LF: Oswaldo Arcia

CF: Byron Buxton

RF: Aaron Hicks

DH: Trevor Plouffe

Bench: Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, Josmil Pinto, Chris Colabello

With a potential batting order of:

1.       Byron Buxton

2.       Eddie Rosario

3.       Joe Mauer

4.       Miguel Sano

5.       Nick Castenallos

6.       Oswaldo Arcia

7.       Trevor Plouffe

8.       Aaron Hicks

9.       Danny Santana

Looks pretty good right? If Perkins gets moved to the Tigers, just picture that lineup and think happy thoughts. It’s for the best. It’s for the best.

Forecasting The Trade Deadline

The Minnesota Twins have lost 11 of their last 12 games and currently sit 15 games under .500 at 37-52. They’re 12.5 games back of the Tigers (prior to this evenings games) and rank towards the bottom of the league in starter’s ERA. After beginning 2013 looking like the ‘best case scenario’ Minnesota Twins, they’ve quickly plummeted to the ‘worst case scenario’ Twins.

This will likely be the third consecutive season losing 90+ games for the Twins. Their fans have largely stuck by the team (attendance is falling, but Target Field has yet to look like Marlins’ Park) essentially on the promise that young talent is coming to save the day.

During the past two seasons, the Twins have been in a precarious position at the trade deadline. In 2011, the Twins were reeling from a horrific, injury plagued start – but they picked up the tempo and put together a winning streak just before the All-Star break. On July 14^th, 2011 (the day following the All-Star break) the Twins beat the Royals 8-5, putting their record over the past 10 games at 7-3 and their overall record at 42-48. The Twins were riding a hot streak and they had a (longshot) at coming back in the AL Central. With the expiring contracts of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and others the Twins were in a great spot to make trades. Instead, they stood pat. They finished the year by going 21-51, brining their season record to 63-99.

On July 8^th, 2012 the Twins lost to the Rangers 3-4, dropping their record to 36-49. They were out of the race and not a contending team. For some reason, Terry Ryan largely stood pat at the deadline, moving only Francisco Liriano for Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez. Denard Span, despite being in high demand, was retained as were Jared Burton and Josh Willingham. The Twins finished the season 66-96.

The 2011 Twins’ refusal to make a trade was likely the product of not wanting to admit that last season’s division winning playoff team was not coming back. They were riding a bit of a hot streak and GM Bill Smith decided to gamble and see if they team could catch fire. Not moving expiring assets during a losing season is still an large mistake on the part of the GM, but you can at least talk yourself into the logic the Twins front office was likely employing.

In 2012, the Twins were at a crossroads. They were a bad team, this was evident. But, they had talent coming in the minor leagues – the only issue was that it wasn’t quite ready for the big show. They couldn’t deal their veterans and promote the young guys without making the product on the field entirely unwatchable. 2 years into a brand new stadium, that likely wasn’t an option. In hindsight, not moving Willingham and Span when the demand was highest was a mistake, but just like 2011, you can talk yourself into seeing the Twins logic.

That brings us back to 2013. We’ve established that the Twins are, once again, horrid and will not be a contending team this season. The difference is the youth movement that was so far away in 2012 is now taking shape on the horizon. Miguel Sano could see Target Field as soon as September and could be a regular at the big league level as soon as the start of 2014, but almost certainly by July of 2014. Eddie Rosario, the team’s future at 2B is proving to be just as able as Sano at climbing the ladder quickly. It’s not unreasonable to think he could be a fixture on the 2014 Twins roster. Alex Meyer and Trevor May will be close, if not on the roster, by 2014 and Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson and Oswaldo Arcia will all have full seasons of work under their belts. The 2014 Twins won’t likely contend (due to their youth) but they’ll be nearly there.

That means that this trade deadline NEEDS to be an active one for the Twins. Their minor league system will not flesh out an entire 25 man roster by itself, especially when it comes to starting pitching. But, with the youth movement coming there will be a few veterans who won’t have positions to field any longer – Terry Ryan can solve that logjam by dealing them 1 year before the youngsters are ready.

That likely means the Twins will have to make some hard moves. Parting with native Minnesotan and fan favorite Glen Perkins and long time Twin Justin Morneau are the two toughest decisions to make – but for the future of the club, they need to be done.

In fact, the Twins have 6 trade chips that they should move by July 31^st. Now, trading 6 players by the deadline is a nearly unprecedented jettisoning of talent and the team likely will not be making that severe of a move, but I’d argue that of the 6 names I’m going to present, the team should trade AT LEAST 3 and aim to move 4.

The ‘Trade Chips’:

Glen Perkins:

Contending teams need a closer. Losing teams do not. Glen Perkins has been one of the very few highlights for the Twins this season, but he’s a luxury that the team can easily turn into useable assets for the near future. With contending teams especially desperate for relief help this season the wise move is to open the gates and let teams outbid each other for Perkins’ services. Boston, Detroit, Texas, Atlanta, Baltimore and LA (NL) are all potential suitors and the Twins should ask for nothing less than TWO starting pitcher prospects. One of which needs to be Major League ready by 2014.

Justin Morneau:

Morneau’s power has been returning slowly, which bodes well for the Twins as July progresses. With his injury history and expiring contract, fans will have to temper expectations of what the Twins will get for Morneau (he’s not brining back Mike Olt in a trade) but he’s a left handed power bat who can play 1B. Contending teams are always looking for a big bat to DH for the stretch run – the fact that Morneau still plays 1B at a high level is a bonus. Texas, Baltimore, New York (AL), Cleveland and Tampa Bay are all potential matches for a trade. The Twins should be looking for a major league ready pitching prospect (mid level) or one high ceiling lower level prospect. Alternatively, flipping Morneau for a SS would be a wise move too. Tampa Bay’s Hak-Ju Lee straight up for Morneau makes sense for both squads (the Rays are deep at SS and need a big bat for a postseason push).

Ryan Doumit:

Doumit has a solid bat with power and can play a few defensive positions (all though none particularly well). Any team targeting him would be doing so strictly for the purposes of a DH role or bat bench / catching depth for a postseason push. Oddly enough, the Pirates would greatly benefit from getting Doumit (Doumit played for Pittsburgh prior to playing for the Twins) but they likely don’t have the chips they Twins would want in return. Doumit hasn’t been having a career year and his number are essentially league average, so the return won’t be overwhelming – but a team looking for a low cost DH upgrade could certainly do worse than Doumit. Potential suitors are all of the same that Morneau had, but Tampa Bay would move to the top of that list (Doumit seems like a player the Rays could use perfectly). The Twins would likely be getting a mid level starting pitching prospect (think Liam Hendriks, Andrew Albers, Kevin Correia quality) or a big league ready reliever in return.

Casey Fien:

As established in the Perkins’ bit, contending teams are in need of bullpen help this season. Fien is a fireball throwing righty with a solid ERA, low BABIP and decent K/BB ratios. He’s 29, so the Twins shouldn’t act like he’s a young piece of the next contending team – but his relatively young age means a contending team may be willing to part with a little more the with the safety of keeping Fien over 2+ seasons all but certain. You’d be hard pressed to get a pitching prospect for a reliever (after all, if a team had a big league ready pitching prospect, they’d simply use HIM to patch their holes). Fien is the type of player the Twins could flip for a middle infield prospect or bundle with another player to get back a little more in a trade. (For example, a Glen Perkins + Casey Fien trade to a team like Texas could net two starting pitching prospects and a middle infield prospect).

Jared Burton:

Everything written in Fien’s portion? It applies to Burton too. The ONLY reason Burton has fallen behind Fien in my rankings is his inconsistency over the past few weeks. Prior to looking completely hittable during that span, Burton looked like a prime candidate for a contending team to grab and convert into a closer. He still has the potential to be that for a contending team, but he’ll need to pitch well over the next few weeks for the Twins to get a better return from him. Right now he’d work great as an “add-in” to another trade. (Justin Mornea & Jared Burton to the Yankees for a AAA SP prospect and middle infielder, for example).

Kevin Correia:

Okay, I’ll wait for you to stop laughing. Yes, Kevin Correia has value, albeit not in the starting role the Twins are currently using him in. A contending team needs a long reliever too – and Correia could be a perfectly functional reliever for any club looking to make a postseason push. The tricky part here is finding value in a return ‘chip’. Teams won’t be giving the Twins much for Correia and it certainly won’t be big league ready pitching prospects (as in Fien’s case – why trade for something you already have in younger form?) The Twins should shop Correia for a AAA shortstop and nothing less. If you can’t get at least a competent SS back, Correia actually has more value on the 2014 Twins as an innings eater.

So, this begs the question, who do the Twins move and why? If I’m Terry Ryan (which, I am decidedly not as I have a majority of my hair and a fraction of his paycheck) I make the following moves:

Trade Glen Perkins & Casey Fien to the Boston Red Sox for Allen Webster and Brandon Workman

·    Boston beefs up their bullpen (and they have control over both players for the next couple of seasons) while the Twins pick up the #4 prospect in the Red Sox organization in Webster, who is currently in AAA and likely big league ready. Workman is a bit of an upside play – he’s 25 and still in AA, but he has the peripherals to be a big league starter if he keeps up his strong season. 

Trade Justin Morneau to the Tampa Bay Rays for Hak-Ju Lee

·    The Rays are deep at SS and Lee has been injured. Morneau is the bat their offense needs, but his injury history and expiring contract lessen his value. The result, two fresh starts for two players on teams that greatly need their depth. Win, win? I think so.

Trade Ryan Doumit and Jared Burton to the Baltimore Orioles for Josh Hader & Tyler Wilson.

·    The O’s want to contend in the AL East this season, to do that they’re going to need another bat and a little bullpen help wouldn’t hurt either. They don’t need Doumit for the catching depth, but that doesn’t hurt either. By throwing in Burton, the Twins will likely be able to get one more youngster out of the deal. The big piece of the trade (for the Twins) is Josh Hader, a ‘A’ ball pitcher with great upside. Wilson, a ‘AA’ righty, has great upside as well.

So, if you're keeping score at home, my time as hypothetical GM saw me trade away 5 of the 6 trade chips, netting upper tier starter (Allen Webster) one rotation filler (Brandon Workman) one starting SS (Hak-Ju Lee) and two future starters (Josh Harder & Tyler Wilson). 

The 2013 Twins immediately get much, much worse as young guys are promoted and the veterans are gone, but the 2014 team now has a potential starting rotation of Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman / Vance Worley and a free agent signing (more on that in the future). While the 2014 team also gets its SS of the future in Lee. In three moves, the Twins go from hopeless losing team to a team on the verge. Here's hoping the Twins take advantage of their spot on the rebuilding timeline and are aggressive sellers at the deadline. 

Parmelee's Big Opportunity

Following the Twins 7-3 loss to the New York Yankees last night, the team announced that Josh Willingham would be undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, an injury that was sustained on a poorly attempted stolen base in May. Willingham had an initial MRI following the injury, but no major damage was found. Apparently between May and July, Willingham exacerbated the injury to the point of tearing his meniscus. He’ll likely be out 4-6 weeks while he recovers from the surgery. The Twins placed Willingham on the 15 day DL prior to Tuesday’s game and recalled Aaron Hicks from AAA Rochester, ending his rehab assignment with the Red Wings.

While Willingham’s move to the DL was immediately beneficial for Aaron Hicks, he is not the player with the most to gain from this move. Hicks was likely to be back with the Twins by the end of the week regardless of Willingham’s status. Instead, the player who has the opportunity to benefit from this injury the most is none other than Chris Parmelee.

Entering 2013, Parmelee was slotted to play RF full time. After carving up AAA pitching in 2012, the Twins stated that Parmelee had nothing left to prove in the minors and that he would be given every chance to prove he could be a big league hitter.

Parmelee responded by starting incredibly slow in May and June, forcing Ron Gardenhire to play the hotter bats of Oswaldo Arcia and Ryan Doumit in RF over the powerful lefty. With Willingham out for the next month and a half, the Twins will likely roll out a lineup featuring Arcia in LF and Parmelee in RF (with Clete Thomas making the occasional appearance) for the foreseeable future.

Life rarely puts a spotlight on career defining moments, but Chris Parmelee’s situation effectively has the bat signal telling the whole world the scenario. You want to be an everyday starter? Here’s your chance to prove you belong.

So far in 2013, Parmelee has posted a .230/.312/.392 slash line with an OPS+ of 93. He’s knocked in 8 home runs and 18 RBI while striking out 54 times in 237 plate appearances. Those numbers aren’t good, especially for a player who is supposed to be a power bat in the lineup.

The small sample size argument doesn’t really apply for Parmelee anymore either. He’s tabbed 535 plate appearances over three seasons at the major league level. During that span he’s posted a slash of .239/.325/.419 with 17 home runs, 52 RBI and 152 strike outs. What we could originally write off as youthful inexperience and the simple matter of Parmelee not having enough time to play is beginning to take shape as the dreaded “trend”.

Parmelee’s closest Twins comparison has been Jason Kubel, with the Twins hoping that Parmelee would follow Kubel’s track of really developing into a power hitter as he matured. Instead, Parmelee’s regressed from his 2011 breakout (that was expected – but not to the extent he’s shown so far). When you graph Kubel vs. Parmelee, the stark contrast becomes apparent:

Simply put, as Kubel aged, he became a better and better hitter. So far, all Parmelee has done is regress below league average and stay put. With Willingham’s injury, Parmelee will once again be the team’s full time RF – and if he wants to be in the team’s plans for 2014 and beyond, he’ll need to prove that he can become the hitter the team expects him to be.

Gibson gets the call, Buxton and Sano on the move

The Twins were just swept by the Marlins. The 27-50, worst team in baseball, Miami Marlins. You’ll understand if I don’t really have anything to say, analyze or add to two terrible games of baseball played by our favorite team. Maybe they were distracted by that horrendous, neon green ballpark. Maybe they’re just not that good. Nah, must be the first one.

Buxton Promoted:

I’ve been saying it for at least two months. Byron Buxton would be playing in Fort Myers before June was over. On June 25^th, Buxton made his debut for the Miracle, going 1-4 with an RBI. On June 26^th, Buxton again went 1-4 with an RBI. He’ll have to adjust to the higher level of competition, but it was very clear that he was playing above his competition in Cedar Rapids. It will be worth keeping tabs on Buxton as he adjusts to his new league. It’s highly likely that the Twins will let Buxton play out the year in Fort Myers before moving him to AA New Britain in 2014. After that, he could be mere months away from the big league club.

Sano’s Slow Start:

Uber prospect and franchise savior (embellishment or fact? You decide) Miguel Sano earned his promotion to AA a few weeks ago and has taken off at a slower pace than Twins fans are accustomed to seeing. So far, Sano is batting .191/.305/.489 with 3 home runs, two doubles and a triple with the Rock Cats. Sano’s reputation has preceded him in AA, and pitchers have been pitching him very carefully. As a result, Sano is getting very little in the way of quality pitches to hit. Don’t panic about his slow start, Sano just has to learn to wait for the pitch he wants and let all the other garbage go. He’s still posting an impressive OPS of .794, so the hits will come as he adapts to the pitching.

Rosario Impressive at AA:

Brian Dozier may not want to get too comfortable at 2B as his future replacement may be making his way to the big leagues faster than anyone anticipated. Eddie Rosario, who was promoted at the same time as Miguel Sano, has been off to a quick start with New Britain. He’s batting .264/.He’s batting .264/.339/.340 with 3 extra base hits in 14 games. The biggest note of improvement with Rosario has been his defense. Since converting from CF, Rosario has worked hard at mastering 2B and it’s beginning to show. He posted a .985 fielding percentage at Fort Myers prior to his promotion and is currently boasting a .966 fielding percentage with the Rock Cats. Rosario’s bat is developing nicely and if his defense can become major league ready, he’ll be in a Twins uniform by September for a late season call-up.

Kyle Gibson (Finally) Gets The Call:

Twins fans have been waiting patiently for Kyle Gibson to make his debut with the big league club. The Twins front office had said that they wanted to see more consistency from Gibson before he was promoted and that once he was called up, he was likely here to stay. Gibson delivered on his end, posting a 7-5 record with a 3.01 ERA. Mike Pelfrey hit the DL with a back injury, opening the door for Gibson. If he can deliver, it’s likely that PJ Walters, Scott Diamond or Mike Pelfrey could be out of a starting job (I’d wager Walters as the odd man out). Gibson will make his debut Saturday against the Royals.

A Market For Morneau:

Mark Teixeira is likely out for the season with a wrist injury, leaving the New York Yankees devoid of a power bat in their lineup and a warm body to play defense at first base. The Twins are likely looking to move pieces of their team to further supplement the youth movement making its way to Target Field in 2014 and 2015. I’ve long said that Justin Morneau would love playing in Yankee stadium, with its short RF porch and hitter friendly tendencies, Morneau could really rake. With the Yankees now in need of a big bat, the matchup seems all too perfect.

Morneau is a free agent after 2013, so the Twins shouldn’t expect the Yankees’ best prospect out of the deal or even multiple prospects. However, a AAA starting pitching candidate would not be too far of a reach to ask for nor would a AA shortstop candidate. The Yankees have interesting trade targets in Madison Stoneburner, a right handed, pitch to contact guy with decent numbers and quality stuff or Addison Marusuzak, a big league ready short stop who will likely hit in the .260’s with solid defense. The Twins aren’t going to top off an already nicely equipped farm system by trading Morneau, so they might as well focus on AAA caliber guys who are big league ready. Maybe one of the two mentioned players fill a need coming into 2014, maybe they end up as organizational depth – either way the Twins will have turned an expiring asset into something younger and more versatile to the club.

Trevor Plouffe, Franchise Cornerstone?

Trevor Plouffe returned to the Twin from a long 22 day stint on the disabled list on Saturday, and celebrated his arrival (and birthday) with a 3 for 3 game, including an important two run home run launched to left in the 4^th inning. Plouffe’s arrival meant that the weak hitting duo of Eduardo Escobar and Jamey Carroll could finally be returned to the bench, their full time starting stints proving only that neither has a major league caliber bat to play everyday.

Plouffe is one of the more interesting players on this Twins team as he is neither an established veteran who could be flipped at the trade deadline, nor is he a young prospect full of potential, just waiting for a chance to play. Plouffe has his chance to play, since Danny Valencia’s early season demotion in 2012, Plouffe has been the Twins’ everyday third baseman.

Plouffe’s bat warranted the efforts to move him to a new position. Plouffe is a career .236/.303/.429 hitter with an OPS of .731 and 39 career home runs. On the surface, those numbers don’t scream “franchise cornerstone” – but if you dig deeper, or more accurately, focus on the last two seasons – you’ll see an interesting trend. Plouffe finished 2012 with a .235/.301/.455 triple slash with an OPS of .756, he hit the second highest home runs on the team with 24. Factor in the fact he wasn’t a full time starter until May and he missed a large portion of the middle of the season with a thumb injury (and that subsequent thumb injury cost him much of his power during the final month of the season) and you can imagine what those final numbers COULD have looked like.

In 2013, Plouffe is actually posting better numbers than 2012. His current triple slash of .264/.344/.457 with an OPS of .801 and 5 home runs is third on the team overall. Plouffe’s bat is developing and maturing and he appears to be realizing the power potential the Twins have hoped he would. A young, still developing power hitter with 30 home runs per year potential? Why exactly isn’t Plouffe a franchise cornerstone?

In short, his defense.

In 2012, Plouffe was thrown into the third base job and was effectively learning on the fly. As you might expect, he struggled defensively, posting a UZR of -10.8 (that’s effectively the worst 3B in the AL). This season, his UZR has improved to -5.0, while that’s a considerable improvement, it does illustrate that Plouffe probably doesn’t belong at third base.

So, what do the Twins do with Plouffe? First, we need to establish that 3B isn’t going to be his home for much longer. Super prospect Miguel Sano, currently playing in AA, is likely making his first appearance at Target Field this September and will be manning the hot corner for the foreseeable future a short while into 2014.

So, third base isn’t in the long term plans and shortstop and second base have been ruled out from previous forays into each position. That leaves, 1B and the corner outfield spots and the obvious DH role.

Currently, the outfield is packed with Oswaldo Arcia, Josh Willingham, Chris Parmelee and (inexplicably) Ryan Doumit all sharing time in the corner spots. First base is manned by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer while the DH is primarily Ryan Doumit’s home but he lets Oswaldo Arcia and Morneau use the place from time to time.

Assuming the Twins don’t begin an incredible hot streak and suddenly find themselves in contention by the end of July, it’s likely they’ll be deadline sellers. Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit are all names that could be discussed at the deadline, and I’d wager two of them (at least) will be gone by August 1^st.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Doumit and Morneau  are dealt. This allows the Twins to shift Oswaldo Arcia over to LF full time, while cementing Josh Willingham into a full time DH role. 1B is open for the heir apparent, Chris Parmelee, but I don’t think the Twins will go that way. Parmelee has been a very solid defensive RF for the Twins and without another stellar player available to fill Target Field’s tricky corner, I think the Twins leave him there. That means Trevor Plouffe has a new home, and it’s at 1B.

Moving to 1B allows the Twins to “hide” Plouffe’s less than stellar defense (he’ll still have to make plays, but 1B is markedly easier than 3B) while keeping his potent bat in the lineup. The Twins could make the same move by simply flipping Plouffe and Parmelee, but for the reasons I listed prior, I think that Plouffe becomes the team’s 1B option for the next 3 to 4 years, until Travis Harrison or another power hitter comes up from the minors.

Trevor Plouffe is a developing talent, albeit a late bloomer as his power potential has really blossomed over the past two seasons. The Twins will have options with Plouffe coming into next season and I think his bat warrants moving him to a new position, rather than cutting him loose. With the youth movement coming, the Twins could use another veteran bat (in addition to Mauer) with some pop to help lead the team. I think Trevor Plouffe fits that role perfectly.

News & Notes

There’s a collection of news and notes worth covering on the Minnesota Twins as they enter what feels like the 50^th series this year against the Tigers (seriously, we haven’t even seen Houston, Oakland, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto and we’ve barely played the White Sox and Indians – but the Tigers? We’ve played the Tigers 13 times! This schedule is weird.)

Minor Movements Have Major Implications:

This week Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Angel Morales were promoted from Fort Myers to New Britain. Sano and Rosario were playing well above their level and were expected to get the call, Morales, however, was a bit of a surprise.

Morales, a 24 year old CF, has been part of the Twins’ system since 2007. He’s put up good but not great numbers in each level he’s reached, but was promoted on the strength of a .297/.364/.525 triple slash this season with The Miracle. Morales strikes out a lot, 28% in his minor league career, but he has decent speed and slightly above average power. He’s not likely to make a big league impact, but he’s worth keeping an eye on to see if he’ll flourish at the higher level.

Sano and Rosario’s promotions mean bigger things for the Twins this year than many fans may realize. If Sano and/or Rosario can make the jump to AA and keep swinging they way they have been this year, they may line themselves up for a late September call-up to the Twins. It wouldn’t be entirely unheard of for the Twins to bring up two hot hitters from AA in the last month of the season just to see where their top talent is. Each would likely begin 2014 in AAA (I think the Twins have learned a lesson with Aaron Hicks, plus service time is an issue worth addressing for these young future stars) but they would be a phone call away from the big leagues. For Twins fans who have endured these past three losing seasons, that’s something big to look forward to.

Starting Pitching Turnaround

Kevin Correia didn’t have his best stuff last night against the Philies. The right hander gave up and early first inning run and allowed runners to get into scoring position in each inning he pitched. It looked like Correia was going to get an early hook and the Twins would have to rely on the bullpen for most of the game. Funny thing, though, just like Mike Pelfrey the night prior, Kevin Correia managed to keep the Phillies off the board. He pitched 5 innings, throwing 112 pitches and yielding 8 hits, 1 walk and getting 6 strikeouts.

Correia’s outing, despite being less than stellar, was the next in a series of great starts from the Twins’ starters. You have to go back to Scott Diamond’s start Sunday against the Nationals to find the last Twins’ pitcher to get the hook before pitching a full 6 innings. You’d have to go back to May 31^st to find the next outing in which a pitcher didn’t last at least 6 innings (Pelfrey went 5.1 versus the Mariners). In between the Twins got 10 quality starts and posted a 6-4 record.

They’re obviously not setting the AL Central on fire, but that small sample size helps prove the point we as fans have been bemoaning all along. All it takes is a quality start from the guy on the mound. Give us that much and we have a fighting chance. (Extrapolated across an entire season, a win percentage of 60% means the team SHOULD win about 97 games – obviously that’s not the most accurate method of forecasting wins, but it proves the larger point. With good outings from your starters, you’re more likely to hang around and win a game. More starts like this and the Twins should start seeing their win totals climb.)

Roster Decisions Coming

Trevor Plouffe is reportedly healthy and has been rehabbing in Rochester over the past three games. Apparently the team wants to keep him in Rochester over the weekend to make sure he’s fully healthy (also, he hasn’t played in a game for nearly three weeks, a little ball at the lower level should help him adjust). When Plouffe does come back (I’d wager Tuesday against the White Sox) the Twins will have some roster decisions to make.

Clete Thomas isn’t going anywhere while Aaron Hicks is hurt, Oswaldo Arcia is likely here to stay and Chris Herrmann allows Gardy to play Ryan Doumit all over the field without fear of injury to Joe Mauer, so he’s likely safe as well. That leaves Chris Parmelee, Caleb Thielbar, and Eduardo Escobar as likely demotion candidates.

Parmelee isn’t getting playing time with Doumit and Arcia needing at bats and may be better served by being sent to Rochester. However, the team seems adamant that he has nothing left to prove at AAA, so he might not be the one to move even if it makes sense.

Thielbar has been lights out in the bullpen this season, not allowing an earned run so far in 10.2 innings pitched. He’s struck out 1 batter per inning and looks to be the lefty reliever the Twins desperately need. With the starters pitching better, the Twins don’t need a 13 man bullpen, meaning despite his dominance, Thielbar may be the casualty of Plouffe’s return.

Out of all the options, I’d vote for Eduardo Escobar. With Plouffe’s return, Jamey Carroll can return to bench play, being available to fill in for Dozier or Plouffe on occasion. Florimon has proven to be more than capable of playing everyday at shortstop, but Carroll can fill in there as well. Escobar’s bat has cooled significantly from the start of the season and his defense is not as good as Carroll’s, Florimon’s or Dozier’s (and he might not be as good as Plouffe at third) which, in my opinion, makes him the easiest piece to send down.

Vance Woley Looks Bad

I mentioned a few weeks ago that I don’t think Vance Worley is healthy. In 10 starts with the Twins, Worley had a 7.21 ERA and a 1.993 WHIP while only collecting 25 strike outs. This is not the pitcher Worley had been over his first two seasons with the Phillies. For his career, Worley had averaged about 1 strike out per inning, a WHIP of 1.2 and an ERA of 3.20. Clearly, something was wrong. The Twins thought it was something mechanical and sent Worley to AAA in hopes of him working it out. Instead, Worley has looked (somehow) even worse. In 4 starts with Rochester, Worley is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA. Over his last three starts, Worley is 0-3 with an ERA over 8. Something is wrong with the right hander and I hope the Twins discover the issue and shut him down sooner rather than later.

Kernels Claim Playoff Spot

The Cedar Rapids Kernels, the Twins’ new low A affiliate, claimed a first half playoff spot this week with a defeat of the Quad Cities River Bandits on Thursday. While they’re still locked in a battle with Beloit for the top seed in the playoffs, the Kernels can be proud of what they’ve achieved in the first half of the season. On the strength of Byron Buxton, JO Berrios, Adam Walker, Tyler Duffey, Dalton Hicks, Travis Harrison, Jorge Polanco and Niko Goodrum the Kernels have posted one of the best records in the Midwest League and have given Twins fans many good reasons to be excited about the future.

When the first half of the season draws to a close on Sunday night, I’d expect the Twins to make a series of moves. With an influx of talent coming in from the draft, some Gulf Coast League and extended spring training players are likely to be bumped to Cedar Rapids while the new signees step in to the summer leagues. And, with little to nothing left to prove in low A ball, Byron Buxton, Adam Walker, Dalton Hicks and Jorge Polanco will all likely be promoted to Fort Myers.

JO Berrios needs more seasoning (he’s only 19) and Travis Harrison should work on reducing his errors – that’s what keeps them off my promotion list, but the rest have all shown they’re ready for the next level. For Buxton, a quick promotion means he could be on his way up the system faster than most prospects. It’s not unfathomable that he would end the year in AA if he continues to crush the ball like he has in Cedar Rapids. That could put him in AAA by early to mid 2014 and in Minnesota by September of that year.

Looking Ahead

The Twins begin a three game series against the Tigers tonight where they manage to avoid both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. The Tigers offense is something to fear, however, and they will put the Twins’ recent streak of solid starts to the test. If the Twins can come out of this series with 3 quality starts and 2 wins, I think we as fans should be quite pleased.

Draft Preview

The 2013 MLB draft is this Thursday, and the Minnesota Twins have the unfortunate “honor” of picking 4^th in what is widely considered to be a 3 elite player draft. The three names listed frequently as “elite” prospects in this year’s draft are Stanford pitcher Mark Appel, Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray, and San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.

You may recall that Mark Appel was drafted last year by the Pirates with the 8^th overall pick. There were talks that Appel would be difficult to sign, which caused him to fall from the top 3 picks all the way to Pittsburgh, who thought they may be able to get Appel to sign. The Pirates offered Appel $3.8MM, nearly $1MM over the ‘slot’ for the 8^th pick. Appel refused, gambling that he would be able to improve his draft position with another strong outing at Stanford. Appel turned in a 10-4 record this season, posting an ERA of 2.12 with a K/BB ratio of 130/23. This performance again has Appel at the top of draft boards and some of the question marks surrounding him last season (can he dominate, can he be a true ace?) are no longer there. The top two slots in the draft have $7.7MM and 6.8MM to spend respectively . In essence, his gamble from a year ago likely netted him another $3MM to $4MM. In hindsight, not signing was obviously a wise decision.

Jonathan Gray has burst onto the scene this season on the strength of a dominate year at Oklahoma. Prior to this year, Gray was considered a midlevel starting option, likely a back end starter or potential long reliever. Gray vastly improved two of his pitches, his fastball (which can touch 100 MPH) and his slider, which has improved in both velocity and break from a year ago. These improvements saw Gray transform from marginal prospect to elite prospect as he posted a 9-2 record with 127 strikeouts for Oklahoma this season. 

Kris Bryant, much like Jonathan Gray, burst onto the elite list this season as he transformed his abilities. Bryant evolved into a power hitting machine during his senior season at San Diego, launching 30 home runs (one of which reportedly traveled 500 feet). Prior to this season, Bryant had hit 24 home runs in the previous two seasons combined. Bryant has excellent plate coverage and a good eye, evidenced by his collegiate best 62 walks this season. The 6-5 215 pound righty is built to play third base, but some teams are looking at him as a potential corner outfielder or first baseman.

If the draft were to play out ideally on paper, it likely would fall something like this:

1. Houston Astros – Jonathan Gray
2. Chicago Cubs – Mark Appel
3. Colorado Rockies – Kris Bryant

Leaving the Twins standing at number 4 with a lot of “potential stars” but no true “elite” talent left on the board.

Funny thing about playing things out on paper, however, it’s rarely accurate.

Last season, the Astros famously took Carlos Correa over Byron Buxton because they knew they could sign Correa under slot and use the money later in the draft. For a team that is as devoid of talent as the Astros, this is a good strategy. Get a player who many thought of as a top 5 prospect for a better value, and use the money saved to pick up another talented player in the 2^ndand 3^rd rounds who normally wouldn’t sign for such low slot money. It allows a team to pick up 2 to 3 “first round” talent players instead of just 1. The obvious downside is you have to pass on once in a generation talent, as Byron Buxton appears to be.

This draft may end up playing out very similar to last season’s. Once again, the Astros are holding the number one pick and, once again, they are reportedly looking to take a top 5 talent at the first pick in hopes of signing him for under slot and using the money elsewhere. The Astros are looking towards North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran. Moran has a solid bat with good power, hits for average and has played solid defense. He’s considered to be a top 5 talent, but not as a “elite” as Kris Bryant.

If the Astros follow last years draft plan and take Moran, that makes things VERY interesting for the Twins at 4. That means one of the three elite prospects will still be there for the taking at number 4.

IF the Astros take Moran, the draft would likely break like this:

1. Houston Astros – Colin Moran
2. Chicago Cubs – Mark Appel
3. Colorado Rockies – Chris Bryant
4. Minnesota Twins – Jonathan Gray

The Twins would be foolish not to pounce on Gray if he falls to 4. He’s a college pitcher who could be just a year away from the big leagues. (Look at Kevin Gausman – last year’s #4 and Michael Wacha – last year’s #19 as examples of college pitchers who can make big league debuts one year later). With a potential 2014 staff of Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Jonathan Gray, Kyle Gibson and Scott Diamond, the Twins would suddenly become a much different team.

It’s hard to predict what other teams will do, however, and it’s very likely that the Twins will not have the fortune of seeing one of the big three fall to the 4^th pick. In that case, the Twins do still have some interesting players to choose from.

Kohl Stewart has been the name most consistently tied to the Twins during this draft. He’s a 6-3, 195 pound right hander who is ranked as the top high school pitching prospect in the country. He has a “80” fastball (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with a very good slider and a solid, mid 80’s curveball. Scouts have said his stuff is just as good as Mark Appel’s or Jonathan Gray’s and he has a higher ceiling because of his young age. The downside with Stewart is he is already committed to play football for Texas A&M, meaning if the Twins were to draft him there is a chance he would decline to sign in order to play college football. If the Twins do manage to sign him, it would likely be for the full allotment of the slot (necessary to ‘coax’ Stewart from going to college). As a high school pitcher, Stewart would be several years away from helping the big league club, but it never hurts to have one of the highest potential pitchers in your farm system.

Reese McGuire is a left handed high school catcher with great defensive ability behind the plate but an average bat. The Twins have been linked to McGuire because of the way they value a defensive catcher as a “premium” and the fact that drafting McGuire at 4 would allow them to sign him under slot and use the savings on their 2^nd and 3^rdround picks. For a rebuilding team that’s very close to returning to competitive play, drafting someone like McGuire may be hard to get by the fans. At his worst, McGuire is projected to be Drew Butera, at his best, scouts have talked Joe Mauer potential. He would be several years away from the big leagues, and if he does turn into the next Joe Mauer, he’d be ready in 2016 or 2017, about the time Mauer’s contract would be expiring. In that best case scenario, the Twins would look like geniuses, but that exact scenario is highly unlikely to play out.

There are other players the Twins could certainly take at number 4, but I don’t see any of them being a realistic possibility. If one of the big three doesn’t fall to the Twins, look for them to take Kohl Stewart. Pending some unforeseen development, the Twins could also take Reese McGuire, but I’d put the odds pretty low for that particular pick to happen.

Either way, we’ll know Thursday night who the newest Minnesota Twins are and how Terry Ryan and company have decided to further supplement one of the best farm systems in baseball.